Pinnacle Delta Flow-through

[DoinTime]

Who's dumb enough to believe hiring projections for the next 15 years?

In the late '90's the DOT projected airline capacity to double by 2010. Now that 2010 is right around the corner we are looking like capacity will be even less than it was in 1999.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Better yet, who's dumb enough to believe that scope erosion is actually done? I've thought that to be the case for years, but I'm proven wrong every single time. Anybody else still remember when Delta was limited to outsourcing just 57 70-seaters? Seems like just yesterday.

Well, if our recent outcry here is any indication, I think scope is a non-starter for many. They have given up so much that any more would put them over the edge. It sounds like the MEC finally heard this.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Who's dumb enough to believe hiring projections for the next 15 years?

It is not a hiring projection. It is a retirement projection, which unlike hiring is always conservative. As we now can fly until 65 you will see more and more people medical out. We are already double the projected number of retirements for 09 and we are only though March.

 

[Monster Buck]

Who's dumb enough to believe hiring projections for the next 15 years?

Well its good for a few of you. Im a seeing eye doggy doesn't fly for the airlines and never will and doesn't want to. BUT STILL FINDS HIMSELF HERE ON THE AIRLINE BOARDS.....FLY(I)likeboys is such a junior fo it will be ten years for him to make captain to start to get pic....so he doesn't have to worry since he won't be qualified in that amount of time anyway and he"ll be damned if he wants a flow through......and JOE must be 57 since that is about the time going to main line wouldn't pan out IN ANY CATEGORY by the end!


So there are three that don't even have to worry about believing it. Good for you guys!:beer:

 

[PCL_128]

Well, if our recent outcry here is any indication, I think scope is a non-starter for many. They have given up so much that any more would put them over the edge. It sounds like the MEC finally heard this.

Prediction: their tune will change when they see a TA that offers them big raises in exchange for letting go "just a few more seats." Then they'll be the loudest whiners when the furloughs start and their relative seniority doesnt look so good anymore after the 12,500 pilot airline becomes a 9,000 pilot airline. You and I have seen this show before. I don't expect it to change this time around. Unfortunately.

 

[79%N1]

Ding ding!!!

 

[JoeMerchant]

Joe what I am saying is that if you are in your mid 30's and in the bottom 25% of the DCI list, yeah it may suck.
That is not the norm. You know that. For you Joe, you would flow in a year or two tops.

1. It would take more than a "year or two tops"...I don't see you guys hiring many in the next "year or two". When you do start hiring, you have the Compass and Mesaba folks already in line....not to mention the "friends and family" and "squadron buddies".

2. Let's be optimistic and say it would take me 4 years to flow...I think it would be longer, but will use 4 for argument sake...I'm used picking my schedule with 18 days off and 4 weeks of vacation that I turn into 12 weeks.....while making over 100K a year...How long does it take me to get back to that point after getting hired...not just money...but QOL also?

3. There are more than you think that start to fall into these categories of it not making as much sense as one would think....

4. More ASA pilots got hired at Delta in the past 2 years than Eagle pilots who have "flowed up" since the beginning of the Eagle flowthrough.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Read it again Joe. It does, he stated that there were other requirements. I am sure that they are the same basic DAL requirements.

I don't believe NWA had a 4 year degree requirement...did it? If not, this will be an interesting situation....

 

[JoeMerchant]

Well, if our recent outcry here is any indication, I think scope is a non-starter for many. They have given up so much that any more would put them over the edge. It sounds like the MEC finally heard this.

...yet they didn't take any action to even study the stapling of Compass...even after it passed at most LECs....

 

[JoeMerchant]

It is not a hiring projection. It is a retirement projection, which unlike hiring is always conservative. As we now can fly until 65 you will see more and more people medical out. We are already double the projected number of retirements for 09 and we are only though March.

United and American have retired thousands of pilots in the past 10 years....yet it takes over 10 years to hold the plug position at those two carriers...

 

[JoeMerchant]

and JOE must be 57 since that is about the time going to main line wouldn't pan out IN ANY CATEGORY by the end!

Really....How long do you think it would take before this magical "flowup" would happen....I would put it at 5 years from NOW...and that's BEST case scenario.

Secondly, after my life improving "flow up"....How along before I get back to getting my choice of 18 days off a month, 4(12) weeks of vacation, at 110K a year?

 

[hockeypilot44]

I don't believe NWA had a 4 year degree requirement...did it? If not, this will be an interesting situation....

It was not in writing, but I do not know anyone hired in the last wave without it. The only exceptions might have been the ATI's. I heard a rumor that one of them only had about 300 hours of total flight time. I know the Compass pilots were expecting to flow without one. I am not sure what is going to happen with this.

 

[imacdog]

Well its good for a few of you. Im a seeing eye doggy doesn't fly for the airlines and never will and doesn't want to. BUT STILL FINDS HIMSELF HERE ON THE AIRLINE BOARDS

I do like to drop in from time to time to see how my fellow pilots at my old company are doing. However, sometimes I do click on threads not directly related to Comair but the aviation/airline industry in general. This board is entertainment, nothing more or less. It just amuses me though, that some things will never change.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Joe, I am not a fan of the idea of a flow. I am telling you what is being offered to your MEC reps at the DCI meeting.
Read my post on the majors section as to why DALPA wants it. I personally have told people that there are too many political interests to make it happen. I was told I was wrong.
I personally see it as a way to reduce the legacy costs at DCI, by offering a red herring.

 

[flyboyike]

I personally see it as a way to reduce the legacy costs at DCI, by offering a red herring.

And a red herring is all this will ever be. For shame, for shame.

 

[ohplease!]

And a red herring is all this will ever be. For shame, for shame.

How 'bout we do it this way:

we wait 'til early next year, after the parking of dc9's/md88/90's and massive furlough from Delta/Northwest and the next 2-3 rounds of swapping 50's for 900's, THEN we agree to a "flow-up" after we've given preferential hiring to the furloughed Delta pilots and they begin to fill our right seats as new hires. That way they can reap the benefits of said "flow" and become superior skilled Mainline pilots with over bloated egos....how'd that be?

oh yeah, lets not have a "flow" that forces anyone that does want to move to mainline to move to mainline.

 

[Monster Buck]

Really....How long do you think it would take before this magical "flowup" would happen....I would put it at 5 years from NOW...and that's BEST case scenario.

Secondly, after my life improving "flow up"....How along before I get back to getting my choice of 18 days off a month, 4(12) weeks of vacation, at 110K a year?

I use to inflate how much I made also. Lets see. With 18 days of a month...216 off. 4-12 weeks off for vacation 12x7=84. lets say you only add 4 days off each of those 12 times that would be 22 days off a month. so you work 8. with the minuscule time you get for sick and only get paid for four of your vacations.....8 days of work x 12 = 96 110000/96=1145/day...flying 8 every single day of the year you make 143 dollars an hour...given a small inflation for vacation and sick pay....bs...not for a line pilot. I have read your contract...there is no way to credit enough every single month with all those sick calls and days off with your contract to get a 140 an hour average.

Even if you go with 12 days a month of work, 18 days of work, no vacation or sick on top, that's about 100 dollars an hour with 8 hours every single day you come to work. BS

Is it possible? Yes. An 18 year CRJ 700 captain flying his azz of every single month without even one month of a break. But not with 18+ days off a month and your 12 weeks of time off for vacation/sick. You get enough sick time to cover what...one four day a year?

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

100s of 50 seaters are going to go away. Thats a fact. Now, with scope set at 255 70+ seat aircraft unless mainline grows,(which we are getting close to ) what do you think is going to happen at the sub-contractors? My guess is furloughs, and some going away completly. If you are at one of the more senior, expensive sub-contractors I would be very worried. Do I think mainline is going to furlough? Yes. Do I think mainline is going to allow an increase in large rjs(above the 255) while we furlough or stagnate for years.. NFW. Not without another ch11 and even then you might see a different, more militant reaction this time as we have been there, done that thing already. Again, time will tell.

How 'bout we do it this way:

we wait 'til early next year, after the parking of dc9's/md88/90's and massive furlough from Delta/Northwest and the next 2-3 rounds of swapping 50's for 900's, THEN we agree to a "flow-up" after we've given preferential hiring to the furloughed Delta pilots and they begin to fill our right seats as new hires. That way they can reap the benefits of said "flow" and become superior skilled Mainline pilots with over bloated egos....how'd that be?

oh yeah, lets not have a "flow" that forces anyone that does want to move to mainline to move to mainline.

 

[CFI2766]

Frankly, the idea of a mainline guy 'flowing' to the top of the left seat DCI list, thereby displacing everyone on said DCI list down one number, is categorically a bad idea for the DCI people. To attempt to spin it otherwise, as has been the case with this thread, is a perversion of logic.

(If this thought process is such a good idea, then why don't we flow the DCI pilot to the top of the left seat mainline list everytime [which wouldn't be often, if ever...] a flow up occurs? It's the same logic.)

Clearly, there is a double standard here with regards to the careers of mainline vs. DCI pilots. How could a DCI pilot be expected to agree to, vote for, and support this lunacy?

Now, if there were a way for the interests of the DCI guys to be considered with the same weight of the mainline pilots, I think that there could be a way to make this happen. Could someone on the mainline side of the house please suggest something that is a win/win suggestion? To date, I've not heard any of that kind of thinking.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

We are at 223 70/76 seat jets. After these are delivered that were part of the 76 seat scope grievance settlement there are only 32 more than can be delivered. Fact is that they are not even on order yet. That should tell you something.
They may swap out 70 seat jets for the 76 seater, but even with six first class seats the expenditure is zero sum. That is unless one of the manufacturer decides to give DAL no penalty to do so.