NWA/DAL solving the seniority issue

[~~~^~~~]

Holding current assignment is "stirring the pot?"

You exemplify my concern with the NWA pilot group. I say I'd like to remain in my house and you write "not necessarily."

If DAL guys were on the board talking about taking NWA Captain positions that would be "stirring the pot," but they aren't. DAL guys are on the boards hoping that they can keep their base and equipment, they are worried about displacements and their hopes of status quo are answered with "not necessarily." I hope you can see the difference between agressive and defensive.

The bottom line is that the raises, better work rules and friendlier working environment are not appreciated, you want the Delta pilots' jobs too. If a Delta pilot is displaced as a result of my DAL's reduction that is one thing, if they are displaced by a DC9 pilot's planned reduction, that is quite another thing.

You can be assured that status quo holds the high ground in an arbitration.

I've got a F4 photo dropping Napalm if you would like to use it.

 

[Schwanker]

Fin, both cocknbull and superpilot each have career expectations. That is what everyone has when they start out at a new job. The future is the unknown/unpredictable. The present is that cocknbull is on a WB and superpilot is most likely on a NB. This argument is only relevant for the here-an- now. The General said it earlier about their Mngmt could screw everything up later. That holds true for ALL airlines.

EXPECTATIONS:
Cocknbull can expect to be a 767 FO in the bottom 10% of the seniority list 13 years from now with hardly any attrition in front of him.

Superpilot can to be in the top 50% at the same time.

 

[jke406]

Superpilot can to be in the top 50% at the same time.

Top 50% of what, a DC-9 FO in DTW or a 742 SO in ANC?

 

[Schwanker]

How long do you think NW will be hiring when you start parking the DC-9s? I'm thinking shrinkage offset by "possible" retirements, i.e. zero just like DAL in your theory.

Do you have any idea what the NWA scope clause looks like?

Schwanker

 

[~~~^~~~]

Schwanker:

Cocknbull started at the absolute bottom and is around 8% in the company already. He will be 9% by the end of the month. His advancement has not been as a result of "attrition" it has been the result of "growth." Based on current aircraft orders through the next 12 months Cocknbull should be sitting around 13% by this time in 2009.

You can play this game at home. Start with 6,800, insert a random number. Add 11 to 14 for a 737, a similar number for a 757, and 30 for a 777. Add a number here and there for crew compliment. This does not even include MD90's, Management Pilots, LCA folks, etc...

 

[viper548]

top 50% of the company. So probably a DC9 or A320 CA blockholder or 757 reserve

 

[PCL_128]

Yes and no. Someone with more horsepower than I have needs to send this in. I'm hoping somebody somebody picks it up and runs with it.

The Delta MEC isn't exactly waiting by the phone waiting for Fins to call and tell them how to run their operation. But someone like Occam, Puffdriver, FDJ, or General might get listened to.

You might be surprised. You should email your idea to the Council 44 FO rep.

 

[Schwanker]

Top 50% of what, a DC-9 FO in DTW or a 742 SO in ANC?

The entire NWA seniority list.

 

[Superpilot92]

Cool. I'm a FNG at DAL flying a 767ER, holding a line, 18 days off, and I will be making $81 an hour very soon.

How is the DC9?

Cool, would it be that way if DAL hadn't bought out the top guys? Its all relative to each carriers actions. If NWA would buy out the top 2000 pilots i could hold DC9 CA as a FNG. I understand everyone has their own career expectations but the reality is things change either for the better or worse. I cant predict the future, GL thinks he can so ask him whats going to happen Just kidding GL

 

[Superpilot92]

Top 50% of what, a DC-9 FO in DTW or a 742 SO in ANC?

Well those are the most junior positions so if i moved up 50% in the company then NO thats not where i would be sitting.

 

[Redmeat]

And so it begins...

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2008/03/11/airfuel_0312.html


Skyrocketing fuel prices could hurt Delta's credit rating

By RUSSELL GRANTHAM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 03/12/08
Zooming jet fuel prices — which hit new records Tuesday — are once again dimming the prospects for Delta and other airlines.
The spot price of fuel rose another 5 cents to $3.17 per gallon, barely eclipsing the previous record levels in 2005 that helped push Delta and Northwest Airlines into bankruptcy. Both carriers emerged from Chapter 11 last year.
DELTA MERGER
• How well have Delta, Northwest served customers?
• Here's how Delta-Northwest might stack up against rivals
• Forum: What do you think of talks and rumors?
• Bios of corporate leadership
• Merger timeline/history
• Another View: Coverage from Northwest's hometown

Latest Headlines:

• High fuel prices could hurt Delta's credit rating
• Delta CEO complains about fuel costs and waste
• Pension insurer wants in on Delta-Northwest talks
• Delta, Northwest pilots move toward restarting talks
• Delta, Northwest union leaders meeting in D.C.

• More Delta news
• More Business News
• Business photo galleries

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's said Tuesday that the high fuel prices and adverse economic trends are prompting it to review the outlooks on the 10 airlines it follows. A switch to a "negative" outlook for Delta, which now has a positive outlook, could signal that Standard & Poor's will eventually lower its credit ratings if high fuel bills continue to hurt the Atlanta carrier's financial performance. A lower credit rating could reduce Delta's access to capital and increase its borrowing expenses.
Delta Chief Executive Richard Anderson said in a message to employees that the carrier will have to "do what we can" to offset higher fuel bills through fare increases and fuel conservation measures.
"The run-up in fuel prices that we've had in the last three weeks is really unprecedented," he said Friday in the recorded message to employees.
The spot price of jet fuel has risen nearly 16 percent this year. Each penny per gallon increase adds about $25 million to Delta's annual fuel bill, although the airline has also been adding to its fuel-hedge positions to effectively lock in the cost of some of its fuel.
Skyrocketing fuel costs have been a catalyst behind merger talks between Delta and Northwest, which have been on hold while the pilots unions at the two carriers negotiate a related agreement on blending their seniority lists.
The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported that Northwest's pilots union leaders convened a four-day meeting this week to discuss the status of the merger integration talks. A spokeswoman at Delta's pilots union declined to comment.
In a report Monday, UBS analyst Kevin Crissey said such mergers "may be the only way to soften the blow" from high fuel costs, which typically account for about 30 percent of an airline's operating expense. He said he expects a merger deal between Delta and Northwest "in the near term," possibly followed by a deal between United and Continental.
In an interview Tuesday, Standard & Poor's analyst Philip Baggaley said persistently high fuel prices may prod airlines to ground older, less fuel-efficient jets or find other ways to cut costs and boost revenues.
"I think it may increase pressure to move toward a merger, although realistically, it would take months for the benefits of a merger to unfold, and there are also risks," said Baggaley.
He said rapidly rising fuel bills have increased airlines' costs at the same time that the threat of a recession could soon hem in their ability to raise fares.
Jet fuel is typically an airline's biggest expense.
"The airlines over the last two years have been able to offset very substantial increases in fuel costs" through fare increases, said Baggaley. Over the weekend, most big carriers including Delta increased fuel surcharges by $10 on most roundtrip domestic tickets.
"I think that string of successes may come to an end soon," Baggaley said.

 

[~~~^~~~]

On the 10th, I wrote:

Latest rumor is that the NWA and DAL MEC members met, but that there was insufficient movement to continue talks.

Occam wrote:

Bad rumor.

Everybody chimed in to support Occam, even the Delta guys. Well now the press finally catches up...

Northwest Airlines and Delta Air Lines pilot leaders adjourned their latest seniority integration talks Tuesday without reaching an agreement.

Don't get me wrong, I like Occam and he adds a lot to the board, but not all Jimmy Buffet fans are alcoholics. Fins to the LEFT!

 

[PCL_128]

Fins, you made your post on the 10th, and the talks didn't adjourn until the 11th according to that article. In other words, Occam was still right.

 

[Superpilot92]

It came from the media It has to be true, right? They have been very accurate so far throughout this whole deal, haven't they?

 

[Noserider76]

And so it begins...

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2008/03/11/airfuel_0312.html


Skyrocketing fuel prices could hurt Delta's credit rating

The sky is falling everywhere it seems. Great industry we're in, huh?


AP
Ahead of the Bell: Airline Downgrades
Wednesday March 12, 9:01 am ET Analyst Downgrades US Airlines Due to High Fuel Costs; Credit Ratings Potentially at Risk
NEW YORK (AP) -- As oil prices rose to new record levels, analysts said Wednesday that U.S. airlines will face dramatically higher fuel costs, threatening their profits and their credit ratings.
The price of a barrel of oil reached an all-time high of $109.72 on the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday due to weakness in the U.S. dollar. JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker downgraded shares of seven airlines Wednesday, and Standard & Poor's Ratings Service said it will review its outlooks on 10 U.S. airlines.
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Baker cut his ratings on shares of UAL Corp., AMR Corp., US Airways Group Inc., Northwest Airlines Corp. and Alaska Air Group Inc. to "Underweight"
from "Overweight." He also downgraded Delta Air Lines Inc. and Continental Airlines Inc. to "Neutral" from "Overweight." UAL is the parent of United Airlines, and AMR operates American Airlines.
Baker predicted smaller profits or larger losses for most of the domestic airline operators because of the cost of fuel.
"Industry fuel likely to be some $25 billion higher than 2002, overwhelming the $7 billion in labor savings wrought by the Chapter 11 (bankruptcy) cycle," he said. "Consolidation may help longer-term assuming labor doesn't intercept most of the benefit, but getting there may prove scary."
Philip Baggaley of Standard & Poor's said he was reviewing credit outlooks on 10 airlines, as he does not think carriers will be able to raise ticket prices enough to cancel out their greater fuel costs. He said airlines were successful at doing that in 2007, but U.S. economic weakness rules it out for this year.
"The rapid increase in jet fuel prices will add substantially to airline costs at a time when a weakening U.S. economy will make it more difficult to offset those costs with higher fares," he said.
Baggaley said he was most likely to his revise positive ratings on AMR, Delta and US Airways Group.
Airlines generally don't sign long-term contracts that can offer protection from rising oil prices, Baggaley said. Southwest Airlines Co. has a significant amount of its fuel costs hedged, he wrote, and Alaska Air Group Inc. has also hedged some costs.

He cited media reports saying Northwest's fuel costs could run $1.7 billion over budget if oil prices stay at $100 per barrel.