Net Jets to Furlough 500...??? Right...

[Trash8Mofo]

where is this informal survey? Can someone PM me the address? I was hired in the second half of 08, so believe me I'd love to see what the group is planning on doing. thanks.

 

[gunfyter]

I am going with 175.

And 75% of the people on the 18 day schedule will work 14 days instead.

trash ... the link is in the "Scoreboard" sticky on the union message board....

 

[gutshotdraw]

I'm praying for at least 20 at NJI take the early out and getting down on my knees while praying that 30 go for it and down on my knees pounding the floor begging and praying that a few names in particular take it.

And I don't pray.

 

[DAS at 10/250]

...and down on my knees pounding the floor begging and praying that a few names in particular take it.

LOL! We've got a few on the "A" side that we're hoping will do the same.

 

[CA1900]

where is this informal survey? Can someone PM me the address?

Trash8, it's on our internal union message board. If you haven't signed up, you should. And if you have, just look for the most recently-updated "Scoreboard" thread.

 

[flagshipper]

Ever read "How to lie with stats". People who are going to take one of the options are more likely to post that on the scorecard. So I think it is silly to think because 7 percent show an early out that we will somehow get 250 early outs

 

[Hawker dude]

Ever read "How to lie with stats". People who are going to take one of the options are more likely to post that on the scorecard. So I think it is silly to think because 7 percent show an early out that we will somehow get 250 early outs

come on dude. seriously?

what Grizz is saying is by taking the percentage of the 150 pilots that have taken the non-informal pole and taking the number of pilots that are taking the early out and than applying that to the total number of pilots we have overall and then take that percentage into it.

oh god, I just had a brain freeze. It is simple stats, you pole so many people and then find an average percentage overall.

 

[jppt2000]

come on dude. seriously?

what Grizz is saying is by taking the percentage of the 150 pilots that have taken the non-informal pole and taking the number of pilots that are taking the early out and than applying that to the total number of pilots we have overall and then take that percentage into it.

oh god, I just had a brain freeze. It is simple stats, you pole so many people and then find an average percentage overall.

Don't you dare pole me

 

[Trash8Mofo]

you pole so many people.

Pole!! Haha..I know I'm immature, I'm sorry I cannot resist .

Thanks guys about the scoreboard link.

 

[pilot772]

Ever read "How to lie with stats". People who are going to take one of the options are more likely to post that on the scorecard. So I think it is silly to think because 7 percent show an early out that we will somehow get 250 early outs

I'll take it the other way. I have flown with several guys that are over the age of 60 (most likely to take the buyout) that have never even been on the message board. So one could argue that a larger majority of guys taking the buyout have no idea about the informal poll. FWIW.

 

[Hawker dude]

Pole!! Haha..I know I'm immature, I'm sorry I cannot resist .

Thanks guys about the scoreboard link.

so you're saying you like the pole dance?

what do you expect from a pilot? let's see dumb a$s, I fly airplanes. I am not an English teacher, ya dork.

 

[imacdog]

Don't have to teach it to know it.

 

[Grizz]

I'll take it the other way. I have flown with several guys that are over the age of 60 (most likely to take the buyout) that have never even been on the message board. So one could argue that a larger majority of guys taking the buyout have no idea about the informal poll. FWIW.

Bingo. I'm thinking that 7% is actually low due to self-selection of the most computer savvy individuals in that demographic. I'm betting that over 200 take the early out.

 

[gunfyter]

Griz,

Did you see my math on it?

If everyone on the 18 day schedule switched to 14 days ... it is the equivalent of 360 fewer pilots. If 75% switched it is = to about 260 pilots.

260 + 200 (early-out) is the equivalent of 460 fewer pilots by these two measures alone.


I think that is an achievable goal. I doubt we have fewer than 75% switch to 14 days.

460 Pilot jobs potentially saved by Labor Management Cooperation ....

 

[RNObased]

Griz,

Did you see my math on it?

If everyone on the 18 day schedule switched to 14 days ... it is the equivalent of 360 fewer pilots. If 75% switched it is = to about 260 pilots.

260 + 200 (early-out) is the equivalent of 460 fewer pilots by these two measures alone.


I think that is an achievable goal. I doubt we have fewer than 75% switch to 14 days.

460 Pilot jobs potentially saved by Labor Management Cooperation ....

Your math is fuzzy IMHO. You have 200 taking early outs, those are guys no longer working, so 200 less pilots. Your net gain is only 260. It is all in how you look at it.

Now if you are talking about just the bottom of the senority list not the whole list, then I buy your numbers. Also think 75% coming off the 18 is a very high percentage, I would say 50% is closer to the truth.

 

[JungleJett]

Maybe the union should send out an email asking EVERYONE to take part in the poll.

 

[flagshipper]

I know it has been asked before but the real question is whether NJ wants to save jobs or money. The answer is both to some extent. An early buy out saves the company 33 percent of a salary and training cost. A pilot flying 14 days a month versus 18 saves them 10 or 20k depending on a lot of factors. A furloughed pilot gets his severance and then saves them 100k a year. There is some magic number that NJA is looking for and if it is not reached by voluntary measures they will do what they must. I have been shocked to learn of a few younger (30-40 year olds) guys who are considering the early out. I assume they have other careers lined up and with 66 percent pay and bennies it would make a seamless transistion. I am truly amazed at the options we have to choose from.

 

[Ultra Grump]

I think that is an achievable goal. I doubt we have fewer than 75% switch to 14 days.

I doubt in the June-Sept trimester we will see more than 40% participation. If it carries over to the Oct-Jan trimester, though, the 18-day will go very senior and I think we'll see 50-75% participation. Hopefully we'll be given word about whether the reduced schedules will continue before we have to bid on schedules for October.

 

[LostComm]

Keep in mind

An early out bid award is not necessarily an early out. The deal is not done until the paper is signed and in the case of the over 40's, 7 days has elapsed.

I would imagine that there will be a fair number of people bidding in order to keep the option available until they reach a final decision. Something about feet in need of some warm socks comes to mind.

 

[gret]

750-1,000

 

[netjetwife]

I think that pilots who have school-age kids would welcome the chance to work less days during the summer. They could help the Company save jobs while spending more time with their family. What's not to like about that?

Considering that one and three year LOAs are being offered, I'd be very surprised if the reduced schedules weren't planned for the Oct-Jan trimester. It doesn't sound as though they're expecting a quick-fix....

 

[HazMat]

Just have to adjust your lifestyle to less income. Looks like a good plan hope it works. I would be shocked if a large number have other jobs lined up when jobs are nearly impossible to find. Sounds like wishful thinking

 

[HazMat]

I wanted to clarify an earlier post Avantair has not furloughed.

 

[JungleJett]

I would spend more time with my kick a$$ daughter and do more reserve flying. Plus, I have two possible paying jobs that would be a lot of fun.

People need to look at this as an opportunity to reset their lives.....that's what I am doing.

 

[RNObased]

I wanted to clarify an earlier post Avantair has not furloughed.

Who hasn't furloughed?? Anyway congrats, don't care, but congrats.

 

[flagshipper]

I would spend more time with my kick a$$ daughter and do more reserve flying. Plus, I have two possible paying jobs that would be a lot of fun.

People need to look at this as an opportunity to reset their lives.....that's what I am doing.

I see it this way too. None of my possible jobs pay as much as NJ but they could be ok for a few years when I include the full benefits and the monthly payments from NJ.

Now I have no polling data obviously but a majority of the younger captains I fly with seem to live way outside their means and will straight up tell me they can't accept pay cuts. They are already on 18day selling back vacations. I value time at home a little more and they want to work. I guess that is the beauty of this package...it is all voluntary except how 18 day will become super senior now with the 14 day option but oh well.

 

[RNObased]

it is all voluntary except how 18 day will become super senior now with the 14 day option but oh well.

I fly in a senior fleet and I doubt your theory will hold much water in it. Most of these guys are on the 15day or the 7/7 they want with some on the 18day, and aren't moving off their schedule, for anything. They have the scedule they want, with the vaction time they want and are set, money isn't a overriding factor in their decisions.
Now will there be a little movement a percent of two maybe, but probably not a lot of people doing it.

 

[realityman]

I fly in a senior fleet and I doubt your theory will hold much water in it. Most of these guys are on the 15day or the 7/7 they want with some on the 18day, and aren't moving off their schedule, for anything. They have the scedule they want, with the vaction time they want and are set, money isn't a overriding factor in their decisions.
Now will there be a little movement a percent of two maybe, but probably not a lot of people doing it.

You'd be surprised. I'm very senior here at NJA. (been here over 12 years) Currently on the 7/7. However, the chance to actually work LESS each month, but make MORE than my present salary has got me looking hard at bidding the 18-day. I think the prediction that the 18-day will go very senior will be closer to the truth.

 

[HazMat]

RNObased. We know you know who Avantair is since you posted on Avantair threads in the past. All I was doing was correcting a prior post which stated Netjets was not the only fractional that had not furloughed.

 

[DO-82 driver]

Reality,

I still believe that a number of senior pilots, like myself (10 yrs) still find the predicability of the 7&7 one of its more attractive features.

Getting 21 days off during a vacation period as opposed to the 15 that someone would get if they were on the 18 or modified 18 is also a big selling point.