Dal ae

[FUZZO]

This company cannot seasonally furlough. If we lose JAL I will admit that with this last bid they will finally be set up to furlough. Doing this bid sets us up very well to furlough and or go the other direction. I see where your pessimism stems from, really I do.

I get my optimism from a few places, namely timely information from those that make the decisions. I would have sworn we were going to furlough last Feb when we cut capacity the last time. The opted not too, not because they are nice guys, but because they just could not predict what the future would hold and could not guarantee that doing so would save them money.

This JAL deal has major implications for us. Don't get it, I will bet you are correct as we will not need a lot of the feed to the Asian gateway cities, but if we do get it, we will need more bodies to perform more flying. The stuff that is just waiting for the decision on this will change you tune if and when it becomes public. I for one want the deal to go though. It will mean long term sustainable growth and revenue in all four corners of the globe.

FWIW, here at DAL -S we have furoughees from 90-91 and 2000-2001. Twice DAL has furloughed. Most of the CA's above the bottom of the 73N were never furloughed. I get you point and the statistics you are using. We are big and have excess, but looking into 2011 and beyond there is demand For that reason, they cannot break even on it.

If you don't think we can seasonally furlough, think again. Delta or any other airline will hire till they furlough and furlough till they hire. That being said, I don't think that is what is going on. The last bid DID set us up for an easy chop of say 300 off the bottom if something goes wrong. Delta is in love with the 90s(good price, economics, etc...) but there is no definite growth strategy that has been put out, so they are possibly just taking the place of the 9s. Not necessarily 9 flying but until the company announces where they are going we truly don't know. That being said, if JAL doesn't take our money or American's money then they will probably look at the deal long term and go with us(better return). This is the general feeling on the 4th floor. Everything else right now is window dressing, management knows exactly what is gonna happen already. If it goes to us in the above scenario, the flying would more than likely initially be ours. The 787 delays have brought an opportunity for us to get delay aircraft that are outside of anything previously mentioned and will be good for us. The next bid is a 99% guarantee right now(things change don't kill the messenger) that a new base is opening. You guys need to stay on ALPA bout the 100seater staying at mainline. This issue is still something to keep the pressure on from our standpoint. Right now its like a football team with a lead in the final 5 minutes and they play prevent defense. Lets not drop the ball on this cause I can tell you this the 100 seater is just around the corner. Will it be your captain slot ACL, SuperPilot, etc.. or a compass guy's fantasy come true?

 

[General Lee]

If you don't think we can seasonally furlough, think again. Delta or any other airline will hire till they furlough and furlough till they hire. That being said, I don't think that is what is going on. The last bid DID set us up for an easy chop of say 300 off the bottom if something goes wrong. Delta is in love with the 90s(good price, economics, etc...) but there is no definite growth strategy that has been put out, so they are possibly just taking the place of the 9s. Not necessarily 9 flying but until the company announces where they are going we truly don't know. That being said, if JAL doesn't take our money or American's money then they will probably look at the deal long term and go with us(better return). This is the general feeling on the 4th floor. Everything else right now is window dressing, management knows exactly what is gonna happen already. If it goes to us in the above scenario, the flying would more than likely initially be ours. The 787 delays have brought an opportunity for us to get delay aircraft that are outside of anything previously mentioned and will be good for us. The next bid is a 99% guarantee right now(things change don't kill the messenger) that a new base is opening. You guys need to stay on ALPA bout the 100seater staying at mainline. This issue is still something to keep the pressure on from our standpoint. Right now its like a football team with a lead in the final 5 minutes and they play prevent defense. Lets not drop the ball on this cause I can tell you this the 100 seater is just around the corner. Will it be your captain slot ACL, SuperPilot, etc.. or a compass guy's fantasy come true?

A possible furlough of our bottom 300 as you say would cause havoc at Compass, since most of their pilots would be bumped or furloughed themselves. Think of all the extra costs for typing DL guys on the E175, and bumping current Compass Capts to FO, and then watching their FOs hit the streets. If they went over that number (300), most of the current Compass guys could hit the streets, and bringing them back in under 2 years would cost the company even more in training costs. I don't see it happening on a seasonal basis at all. I am glad you have some insight it seems on the 4th floor, but I still don't see short term furloughs with the resulting Compass nightmare that would follow. The shear threat of that cost and operational chaos that would follow has turned out to be a great "no furlough clause", at least better than the original one....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FUZZO]

Like I said I don't think that will happen. We are far from it at this exact moment, but tomorrow is a different day.

 

[Superpilot92]

furlough breakeven per mgmt is 22 months, if they were going to furlough they would have already done it. Worst case is stagnation imho. Even that is unlikely imho as a number of things on our horizon show movement in the upward direction even if it was -0- growth and only on attrition. Fuzzo is right in that it can all change tomorrow with this industry but with whats in front of us now i dont see it happening. We've lost more pilots in the last few years than we've hired so worst case scenario should be stagnation until the retirements hit in full force and at that point, any growth would be gravy!

BTW ALL YOUR 100 SEATERS ARE BELONG TO US :beer: (mainline)!!!!

 

[twobits]

So it's a Compass pilot's 'dream come true', or worst nightmare depending on the situatiion...... therefore, nobody should be pissed if Compass pilots join the DAL list, because they also will be the first to furlough.

The 9's will be gone soon. Tell me another airline in the civilized world that flies these things? New airplanes are coming.... but they are replacement aircraft. JAL is great for Delta, but bad for Delta pilots, IMHO. It's basically what we don't want to happen in the US, but all of a sudden we are giddy at the prospect of going into another country and doing what we should fear the most. How would you like it if Virgin owned VA, and US Air was bought by Air Asia?

 

[twobits]

how do you come up with 22 months?

 

[Superpilot92]

So it's a Compass pilot's 'dream come true', or worst nightmare depending on the situatiion...... therefore, nobody should be pissed if Compass pilots join the DAL list, because they also will be the first to furlough.

The 9's will be gone soon. Tell me another airline in the civilized world that flies these things? New airplanes are coming.... but they are replacement aircraft. JAL is great for Delta, but bad for Delta pilots, IMHO. It's basically what we don't want to happen in the US, but all of a sudden we are giddy at the prospect of going into another country and doing what we should fear the most. How would you like it if Virgin owned VA, and US Air was bought by Air Asia?

only the 30/40's will be gone by OCT, the -50s will be around for a number of years. They are the "youngest" DC9s (late 70's early 80's) mgmt spent the money painting and converting the interiors because they plan on keeping them up to 2018. they are upping the block hours on the -50s to compensate for the loss of block hours lost with the 30-40's. So instead of 68ish DC9s we'll have 34 by the end of the year. My guess is a loss of 50% in airframes will result in a loss of about 35% in dc9 flying. Some of that will also be replaced with the MD-90s that havent been accounted for yet. The key is to look past the surface on this stuff to get the real picture of whats going on. Combine that with an increase of 10% across the narrowbody flying and we're talking about alot of flying coming up. Alot of that is at the expense of the regionals, the roles are reversing wich is good for us on the mainline side and for those looking to move up someday.

 

[Superpilot92]

how do you come up with 22 months?

thats the number management put out last year when asked about furloughs. 22 months was their number for breakeven on costs thus making it where we are well past the point of needing to furlough especially for a small amount. Unlike other airlines that can furlough and think about it later, our management team has to think about it first because there is a cost associated with it and an expensive cost at that. Supposedly around 60K per pilot thats furloughed due to multiple training cycles with flowing back, bumping compass back, flowing back up and retraining everyone on the upside.

 

[twobits]

If 22 months is what they said, great! Delta already own the simulators, has the instructors on payroll, and are paying check airmen a little bit more for training, how does it take 22 months to break even? There is the power used while in the simulator, and the maintenance, the per diem you get paid in training and the hotel they put you up in. That's it - hardly 22 months worth even compounded by multiple Displacements. What happens if they put 190's at Delta, and when you get furloughed at Delta you get displaced to a 190 at Compass? There will be a short course on procedural differences to come over to the Delta aircraft.


On the 9's.... they painted and redid the interiors on the MD-11's too, and then they sold them! They had to paint and put new interiors in those airplanes, even if they only are going to be used for one year!

 

[ACL65PILOT]

If you don't think we can seasonally furlough, think again. Delta or any other airline will hire till they furlough and furlough till they hire. That being said, I don't think that is what is going on. The last bid DID set us up for an easy chop of say 300 off the bottom if something goes wrong. Delta is in love with the 90s(good price, economics, etc...) but there is no definite growth strategy that has been put out, so they are possibly just taking the place of the 9s. Not necessarily 9 flying but until the company announces where they are going we truly don't know. That being said, if JAL doesn't take our money or American's money then they will probably look at the deal long term and go with us(better return). This is the general feeling on the 4th floor. Everything else right now is window dressing, management knows exactly what is gonna happen already. If it goes to us in the above scenario, the flying would more than likely initially be ours. The 787 delays have brought an opportunity for us to get delay aircraft that are outside of anything previously mentioned and will be good for us. The next bid is a 99% guarantee right now(things change don't kill the messenger) that a new base is opening. You guys need to stay on ALPA bout the 100seater staying at mainline. This issue is still something to keep the pressure on from our standpoint. Right now its like a football team with a lead in the final 5 minutes and they play prevent defense. Lets not drop the ball on this cause I can tell you this the 100 seater is just around the corner. Will it be your captain slot ACL, SuperPilot, etc.. or a compass guy's fantasy come true?

Fuzzo,
As you are probably aware I am aware of what 100 seat jet is in the lead. I know what work is being done. I know that it will be my A seat and probably in the next two years if I want it.
That said, I make it known to both sides of the fence what my thought are about the 100 seat jet.

I also know they have no major growth plan except for the 42+16 JAL 90's. A few extra Widebodies we will get from Boeing and the extra stuff that JAL will dump. In the end if we have those jets, the added JAL fly and fly all of the parked metal out in the desert, we will need over 1000 pilots. (2+ years in my eyes)

I know that we are looking at TWO new bases. Of course GUM and the other one that will make many happy. I would like to see both this year.

I also know the way airline hiring works. I also agree and have stated that this is not the plan right now.

In regards to JAL, we are the better deal ,with or without the money. I know there is a plan A and B. I like A better a lot better. Lot of ppl are nervous on the fourth floor, eights floor at the ALPA offices, and Mahogany row. The want the win. The other options could be just as successful, but more risky.

My point about the AE was to state to Twobits that doing this allows them the flexibility they have not had the last few years, IF it gets ugly in the world economy.