Delta mainline back to Juneau? Looks like it in late May...

[Mamma]

Yeah but think about the stock price across the whole spectrum of routes. The stock price WILL drop because exclusive profitability will go down, the better to pull off the all-stock swap purchase of AK.

Juneau isn't the only route where we are going to head to head anymore.

SEA/PDX to the LA basin is hardly exclusive and not really profitable. SEA-PDX against Horizon? Not sure how that will work out. RJs to San Diego vs 737s? Seasonal SEA-ANC/FAI?maybe. When JB came up the analysts said they would get the scraps and not much more. I would like to know how it turned out for JB going up to Anchorage as I honestly don't know. RA is not a dumb man but this strategy does not always work?i.e. Song.

 

[redflyer65]

One seasonal leg to Juneau and a bunch of Rj flights isn't going to drop the stock much. But, it might get big D all warmed up for SE Alaska flying when they buy us. GL can ride in my right seat on the way up to Sitka and buy that third beer he likes to talk about!

The Alaska stock price is headed up, not down and the slight Delta competition isn't going to make any difference with that.

 

[General Lee]

Yeah but think about the stock price across the whole spectrum of routes. The stock price WILL drop because exclusive profitability will go down, the better to pull off the all-stock swap purchase of AK.

Juneau isn't the only route where we are going to head to head anymore.

Some analyst brought up a "possible" merger opportunity with AK (see yahoo finance) and the AK stock price shot up. Stock prices aren't going down, they are going up. And, as I stated, if you wanted to merge, you wouldn't overlap on routes, making a case for the Justice Department and consumer watchdog groups. DL and AK are adding routes on existing routes, direct competition. The GOVT wants consumer choice. To successfully get merger approval, you need to show little overlap. Every additional new route that competes directly makes it a little less probable. Not impossible, but improbable.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

In the LCC section, there is a thread about a possible merger suggestion with JB, HAL, and AK doing the merging. I think it was an article, although I didn't see an author named. One paragraph that makes my point about overlap was mentioned:


"The DOJ may allow a merger between JetBlue and Alaska Airlines, a subsidiary of Alaska Air Group (NYSE: ALK ) , as such a merger would have limited overlap and would provide a stronger airline to compete with the largest carriers. The combined network of JetBlue and Alaska Airlines would have a much greater nationwide presence combining JetBlue's strong east coast network with Alaska's strong west coast network."



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

SEA/PDX to the LA basin is hardly exclusive and not really profitable. SEA-PDX against Horizon? Not sure how that will work out. RJs to San Diego vs 737s? Seasonal SEA-ANC/FAI?maybe. When JB came up the analysts said they would get the scraps and not much more. I would like to know how it turned out for JB going up to Anchorage as I honestly don't know. RA is not a dumb man but this strategy does not always work?i.e. Song.

RA wasn't on the property for Song....
As far as the RJ theory, people don't care about what they fly...truly. I have had plenty of people say they hate the RJs but still won't shop around based on plane type....it's price.

If there are only 70 people in line for a flight that day, I have no idea if the full 70 seat RJ would beat a 737 with only 70 on it. I'll bet the RJ would do better in that scenario.

 

[Mamma]

RA wasn't on the property for Song....
As far as the RJ theory, people don't care about what they fly...truly. I have had plenty of people say they hate the RJs but still won't shop around based on plane type....it's price.

If there are only 70 people in line for a flight that day, I have no idea if the full 70 seat RJ would beat a 737 with only 70 on it. I'll bet the RJ would do better in that scenario.

Very rare to fly only 70 people to SAN from SEA. Planes are usually 90% full. There's enough business to go around! Maybe when Delta seasons the route with an RJ then puts a 717 or 737 it will work better. It's just going to be tough to not operate in the red with your costs.

 

[General Lee]

Very rare to fly only 70 people to SAN from SEA. Planes are usually 90% full. There's enough business to go around! Maybe when Delta seasons the route with an RJ then puts a 717 or 737 it will work better. It's just going to be tough to not operate in the red with your costs.

Bag fees have helped. 3rd quarter had a $1.3 billion profit, so costs seem to be inline.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mamma]

Bag fees have helped. 3rd quarter had a $1.3 billion profit, so costs seem to be inline.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Results of the past are not indicative of future performance given that United, American and Emirates are spooling up against you. I'm sure Delta will be fine but if RA can't make money on the west coast, he will probably change tactics.

 

[General Lee]

Results of the past are not indicative of future performance given that United, American and Emirates are spooling up against you. I'm sure Delta will be fine but if RA can't make money on the west coast, he will probably change tactics.

American has YEARS to go to assimilate and become a "good merger." USAir couldn't get the employees together, and mixing in AA will be a challenge. Emirates, as an analyst pointed out, will not really threaten the big 3. The Big 3 have a geographic advantage, our pax will not transit through Dubai to backtrack to Europe or Asia, too far. The idea that they will do point to point from Europe to the USA with 777-300ERs when UAL can't fill more than 757s from those say cities (like Birmingham, England) to EWR, one of the largest cities and hubs on the East Coast, proves it. Not a big factor.

RA obviously thinks he can make money on the West Coast, and thinks SEA and LA are golden. LAX is gate limited, but currently does very well. Looks like SEA may have some flexibility with that concourse, and he's got his eye on more expansion. It will be interesting.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Dan Roman]

I would guess someone adding back SEA and PDX to Hawaii next, possibly several islands? Maybe?

Bye Bye---General Lee

Nice try General! Even Delta couldn't strong arm HA in the Hawaii market. We are not a big player in the big scheme of the industry, but we are in Hawaii.