Delta mainline back to Juneau? Looks like it in late May...

[Mamma]

Yeah but think about the stock price across the whole spectrum of routes. The stock price WILL drop because exclusive profitability will go down, the better to pull off the all-stock swap purchase of AK.

Juneau isn't the only route where we are going to head to head anymore.

SEA/PDX to the LA basin is hardly exclusive and not really profitable. SEA-PDX against Horizon? Not sure how that will work out. RJs to San Diego vs 737s? Seasonal SEA-ANC/FAI?maybe. When JB came up the analysts said they would get the scraps and not much more. I would like to know how it turned out for JB going up to Anchorage as I honestly don't know. RA is not a dumb man but this strategy does not always work?i.e. Song.

 

[redflyer65]

One seasonal leg to Juneau and a bunch of Rj flights isn't going to drop the stock much. But, it might get big D all warmed up for SE Alaska flying when they buy us. GL can ride in my right seat on the way up to Sitka and buy that third beer he likes to talk about!

The Alaska stock price is headed up, not down and the slight Delta competition isn't going to make any difference with that.

 

[General Lee]

Yeah but think about the stock price across the whole spectrum of routes. The stock price WILL drop because exclusive profitability will go down, the better to pull off the all-stock swap purchase of AK.

Juneau isn't the only route where we are going to head to head anymore.

Some analyst brought up a "possible" merger opportunity with AK (see yahoo finance) and the AK stock price shot up. Stock prices aren't going down, they are going up. And, as I stated, if you wanted to merge, you wouldn't overlap on routes, making a case for the Justice Department and consumer watchdog groups. DL and AK are adding routes on existing routes, direct competition. The GOVT wants consumer choice. To successfully get merger approval, you need to show little overlap. Every additional new route that competes directly makes it a little less probable. Not impossible, but improbable.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

In the LCC section, there is a thread about a possible merger suggestion with JB, HAL, and AK doing the merging. I think it was an article, although I didn't see an author named. One paragraph that makes my point about overlap was mentioned:


"The DOJ may allow a merger between JetBlue and Alaska Airlines, a subsidiary of Alaska Air Group (NYSE: ALK ) , as such a merger would have limited overlap and would provide a stronger airline to compete with the largest carriers. The combined network of JetBlue and Alaska Airlines would have a much greater nationwide presence combining JetBlue's strong east coast network with Alaska's strong west coast network."



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

SEA/PDX to the LA basin is hardly exclusive and not really profitable. SEA-PDX against Horizon? Not sure how that will work out. RJs to San Diego vs 737s? Seasonal SEA-ANC/FAI?maybe. When JB came up the analysts said they would get the scraps and not much more. I would like to know how it turned out for JB going up to Anchorage as I honestly don't know. RA is not a dumb man but this strategy does not always work?i.e. Song.

RA wasn't on the property for Song....
As far as the RJ theory, people don't care about what they fly...truly. I have had plenty of people say they hate the RJs but still won't shop around based on plane type....it's price.

If there are only 70 people in line for a flight that day, I have no idea if the full 70 seat RJ would beat a 737 with only 70 on it. I'll bet the RJ would do better in that scenario.

 

[Mamma]

RA wasn't on the property for Song....
As far as the RJ theory, people don't care about what they fly...truly. I have had plenty of people say they hate the RJs but still won't shop around based on plane type....it's price.

If there are only 70 people in line for a flight that day, I have no idea if the full 70 seat RJ would beat a 737 with only 70 on it. I'll bet the RJ would do better in that scenario.

Very rare to fly only 70 people to SAN from SEA. Planes are usually 90% full. There's enough business to go around! Maybe when Delta seasons the route with an RJ then puts a 717 or 737 it will work better. It's just going to be tough to not operate in the red with your costs.

 

[General Lee]

Very rare to fly only 70 people to SAN from SEA. Planes are usually 90% full. There's enough business to go around! Maybe when Delta seasons the route with an RJ then puts a 717 or 737 it will work better. It's just going to be tough to not operate in the red with your costs.

Bag fees have helped. 3rd quarter had a $1.3 billion profit, so costs seem to be inline.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mamma]

Bag fees have helped. 3rd quarter had a $1.3 billion profit, so costs seem to be inline.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Results of the past are not indicative of future performance given that United, American and Emirates are spooling up against you. I'm sure Delta will be fine but if RA can't make money on the west coast, he will probably change tactics.

 

[General Lee]

Results of the past are not indicative of future performance given that United, American and Emirates are spooling up against you. I'm sure Delta will be fine but if RA can't make money on the west coast, he will probably change tactics.

American has YEARS to go to assimilate and become a "good merger." USAir couldn't get the employees together, and mixing in AA will be a challenge. Emirates, as an analyst pointed out, will not really threaten the big 3. The Big 3 have a geographic advantage, our pax will not transit through Dubai to backtrack to Europe or Asia, too far. The idea that they will do point to point from Europe to the USA with 777-300ERs when UAL can't fill more than 757s from those say cities (like Birmingham, England) to EWR, one of the largest cities and hubs on the East Coast, proves it. Not a big factor.

RA obviously thinks he can make money on the West Coast, and thinks SEA and LA are golden. LAX is gate limited, but currently does very well. Looks like SEA may have some flexibility with that concourse, and he's got his eye on more expansion. It will be interesting.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Dan Roman]

I would guess someone adding back SEA and PDX to Hawaii next, possibly several islands? Maybe?

Bye Bye---General Lee

Nice try General! Even Delta couldn't strong arm HA in the Hawaii market. We are not a big player in the big scheme of the industry, but we are in Hawaii.

 

[General Lee]

Nice try General! Even Delta couldn't strong arm HA in the Hawaii market. We are not a big player in the big scheme of the industry, but we are in Hawaii.

No, I mean DL COULD offer their best customers IN SEA more choice for leisure travel, to the other islands from SEA. NWA used to fly 757-300s from SEA to OGG and Kona (Kona was sorta a fuel stop and longer runway on way back to SEA with a full plane), but that stopped after the merger. DL also flew PDX to HNL. Maybe that would be good for DL's "best customers..." (And leisure pax too of course)


Building up a hub should have flights for everybody, and reward business travelers too. Just a guess...



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Very rare to fly only 70 people to SAN from SEA. Planes are usually 90% full. There's enough business to go around! Maybe when Delta seasons the route with an RJ then puts a 717 or 737 it will work better. It's just going to be tough to not operate in the red with your costs.

I don't know the loads out there so good info....and what you said about the upgaging of the equipment makes sense but if only 70 seats are up for sale (read:capacity control) and then jump on a widebody overseas, that's the purpose of the feed and trying fill a few empty seats becomes the gravy on top...the purpose might not be to steal pax while trying to fill a 737.

Our costs can be spread out over the network, but to be clear, I am not defending the RJs....just putting my change for a nickel on why they are doing it. If I was king for the day, I would have mainline doing it, no doubt.

 

[General Lee]

Nice try General! Even Delta couldn't strong arm HA in the Hawaii market. We are not a big player in the big scheme of the industry, but we are in Hawaii.

Btw Dan, your post seems a bit defensive. I don't think anyone is challenging the fact that you guys do a great job and are the market leader to Hawaii overall. But, maybe there could be more CHOICE given to pax in a couple markets, that we're there before anyway..... You never know...


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mamma]

Doh!! Maybe we'll all be one happy family soon!

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/20...s-delta-seen-bidding-real-m-a.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

[Singlecoil]

Here is the Juneau RNP 26 shot from the nose...

http://youtu.be/3A4w4IyJ_mw

...and a multi-view with some strange editing...

http://youtu.be/ohJGh53ZZ8M

 

[General Lee]

Doh!! Maybe we'll all be one happy family soon!

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/20...s-delta-seen-bidding-real-m-a.html?cmpid=yhoo

Notice that was a hedge fund manager trying to make a case for it, and I wonder if he owns any stock?


And read this gem: hilarious...

Acquirers ?like to find those bargain kind of companies that are profitable,? David James, director of research at Alpha, Ohio-based James Investment, said in a phone interview. ?I could see one of the bigger ones looking to take them over. It?s got a really good niche market within Alaska and then some other key parts within the continental United States and Canada.?
James Investment oversees about $4.8 billion, including shares of Seattle-based Alaska.



"I can see one of the BIGGER ONES.... Looking to take them over...."


Wow, that was amazing....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Barrons

December 23, 2013 11:25 AM ET
Delta Air Lines and Alaska Air Merger: Not Going to Happen
By Ben Levisoh

Last week, rumors, or should I say ?speculation,? emerged that Delta Air Lines (DAL) was considering a play for Alaska Air (ALK), another in a long line of mergers that we thought had culminated with the American Airlines (AAL)/U.S. Airways combination.

AP
Cowen?s Helane Becker and Conor Cunningham tell investors not to get their hopes up for a Delta Air Lines play on Alaska Air.

Alaska Air Group shares were up 4.1% Friday following a Bloomberg article discussing the idea that the company was a likely merger candidate for a major US airline. Delta was specifically mentioned as a likely buyer because the airline is building out Seattle as an international hub and needs feeder traffic to support its growing presence in the market. Delta will have more than 2500 international seats per day to 25 destinations on 79 peak day departures from Seattle starting next summer. There are five flights to Asia and three to Europe. Alaska Air is Delta?s code-share partner, but given the fact that Alaska has code-share agreements with other airlines and flies 90%+ full in the summer, there is limited capacity for Delta?s passengers. In addition, Delta is trying to change traveler behavior, to encourage flying through Seattle rather than through Vancouver, Los Angeles or San Francisco.
And regulatory approval? Not going to happen, Becker and Cunningham say.

They write:

We believe any transaction involving Delta Air Lines is sure to be heavily scrutinized by the regulators. Given the difficulty which the American Airlines / US Airways merger had, we seriously doubt the Department of Justice would approve an acquisition of Alaska Airlines, especially given the route overlap. Delta recently announced seasonal service to Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau and Alaska announced new service from Salt Lake City to Boise, San Francisco and Las Vegas. Earlier this week Alaska announced Anchorage-Las Vegas and Anchorage-Phoenix service.

It seems like the market agrees today. Shares of Delta Air Lines have gained 0.3% to $27.64, while Alaska Air has dropped 2.3% to $71.78. American Airlines is down 0.5%


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[imacdog]

Say what you want about GL CP, but then you throw chum in the water like the puke you spewed above and not expect a comment?

(Gasp) weather? Oh jeeze, now you are scaring me.....only the mighty Eskimo can brave the perils of the Alaskan bush. Please Mr. Weatherman, say it ain't so....we Delta Bubbas only know JOOOL-lie thunderstorms and name all our planes JENNay!

Thanks for the big scare, we'll probably go there anyway....

It isn't that "DAL guys can't fly in weather or near mountains", it's "DAL guys are going to find out why Alaska spent so much time and money building an approach much, much better than the best available standard approach in Juneau".

 

[General Lee]

It isn't that "DAL guys can't fly in weather or near mountains", it's "DAL guys are going to find out why Alaska spent so much time and money building an approach much, much better than the best available standard approach in Juneau".

So, Summertime weather in JNU is that bad, huh? Really? I bet the Winter can be nasty, but late May to early Oct? Come on now....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[imacdog]

Plenty of nice days up there for sure, but also plenty of days that don't get to the 1000-2 needed for the best available non-RNP approach.