How will Pilot shops survive the purposed FAA mandate of 1500/ATP

[avbug]

There is a big difference between 1500 tt and an ATP. The XC time is very very hard to get as a FI.

You mean you might actually have to do something beyond flight instructing for a few months before you get that *dream* job?? The horror.

A very large number of pilots are employed in the industry doing things other than flying for airlines, or flight instructing, you know.

 

[PA44Jockey]

The FAA missed the boat on this one. I believe the damage is already done. There are thousands of (121) pilots out there from these training programs already flying the line at many different airlines. The problem is that most of them are still in the right seat and never really had to do much "decision making". Now when they start upgrading and their put in sticky situations, with someone else that just came from the same 0-hero school. Then you got some serious issues with lives at stake, and I hope to God my family isn't on board.
Once again its the FAA writing rules/regs in blood. They should have done this 15yrs ago and maybe we wouldn't be having this problem.

I would think having a 121 FO sit right seat for 7 years and then moving to the left seat with a low time FO would be a better situation than what was going on at Mesa and Chautauqua. You had guys sitting left seat after 3 years and then new hires in the right seat with 300 hours. Any FO that has been in the right seat over 5 years definitely had between 1000 and 1500 hours to get on 121 when they did, so they at least had that experience and the experience of flying 121 for 5 year while learning from other PICs.

 

[doh]

Any time you decrease the pool of labor, you put upward pressure on wages. How much I don't know. But there will be upward pressure.

 

[Lampshade]

isn't that counteracted by the change to age 65? at least until 2012

 

[wlacy]

PilotYIP can back me up: I swept floors, mowed grass, flew divers, traffic, checks. C'mon we can't all go straight to the glass cockpit of an air-conditioned turbojet without some kind of hard labor

 

[Crash Pad]

Couple of thoughts. Great Lakes Aviation LTD. is screwed. I don't think people will get 1500TT and an ATP in the hopes of making $15 and a quick upgrade.

Say you are ASA right now. Are you sure you want to furlough? Say you need to hire in the future... the well of ATP's is a little shallow. Sure you can pick up a 1500 hour FO but the ATP will be the trick. I'm guessing current FO's will be grandfathered in.

If ALPA doesn't seize on this... They are idiots.

 

[CaribPilot]

Some number crunching...

Any time you decrease the pool of labor, you put upward pressure on wages. How much I don't know. But there will be upward pressure.

That is the x-factor here. If QOL and wages do not increase, regional carriers and some major carriers will not be able to hire anyone once all the furloughed guys are re-hired.

Delta, CAL, UAL and AMR will need to replace 28923 pilots between 2010 and 2031. As of 7/30/2009, there are 6322 pilots on furlough from Majors, Regionals, Cargo, Charter and 135. This number does not include unannounced or rumored fuloughs. That leaves 22601 pilots to be hired in the next 20 years from only 4 legacy carriers, and that does not include any airline re-growth from this last few years of shrinking due to falling demand. That also does not include USAir, FedEx, UPS, Southwest, and a bunch of other carriers with substantial retirement numbers.

A larger chunk of those guys needed at the higher 121 level will come from regionals, the other portion from military, and the smaller percentage will come from other areas. Assuming the legislation passes, but pay/QOL stay the same as they are now, what do you guys think will happen?

 

[time builder]

Couple of thoughts. Great Lakes Aviation LTD. is screwed. I don't think people will get 1500TT and an ATP in the hopes of making $15 and a quick upgrade.

Say you are ASA right now. Are you sure you want to furlough? Say you need to hire in the future... the well of ATP's is a little shallow. Sure you can pick up a 1500 hour FO but the ATP will be the trick. I'm guessing current FO's will be grandfathered in.

If ALPA doesn't seize on this... They are idiots.

I agree, current airline FO's without the ATP will most likely be grandfathered in.

The bottom feeder airlines are screwed if this bill passes. As compensation is demanded at the regional level, outsourcing will become less and less appealing, and we may see a return of a lot of the major airline flying lost to regionals in the last decade.

 

[BoilerUP]

The elimination of zero-to-hero pilots who want no part of professional development (instructing, fire/line patrol, traffic watch, skydivers, etc) won't hurt at all. Additionally, collegiate programs will have to find a new niche to market to prospective students, as the 500/50 bridge programs of 2004-2007 won't exist AT ALL. I suspect many flight schools and a few college programs will shutter due to a drop-off in demand.

Unfortunately, I do see some charlatan flight school operators taking advantage of this situation though, low-balling their CFIs in pay even more than some already do because they know the CFIs have to put up with it long enough to meet the requirements to hold an ATP.

135 cargo has been and is disappearing; the experiences of many regional pilots in Barons or 'hos is quickly going the way of the 727...and many of those twins are being replaced by Caravans (which while SE probably provide better icing experience than ANY other airframe).

This is going to make networking THAT much more important, especially for up-and-coming pilots who will be scratching to get to that magical number. Hopefully, there will be a corresponding financial payoff for their time and financial investments when they "get there".

 

[SLUF4]

I agree there will probably be more pencil whipping in the logbooks. And I agree with those that say instructing prepared them well. I was at my sharpest when I was teaching.