How will Pilot shops survive the purposed FAA mandate of 1500/ATP

[RP170]

I was impressed though that they brought up pilot student loans. A bank should never lend someone 100K to make 16K a year.

Another example of why this country is in the shape it's in.

 

[livin'thesim]

I won't try to predict to strongly the economic outcome of this rule change, other than to say that there WILL be an economic outcome that is different in some way.

A few possibilities:

1. Drastically reduced student starts. There will be NO ILLUSIONS about flying a jet at 300 hours. Pilot mills will not be able to sell this 'dream' any longer.

2. The cost of flight training at large schools like ERAU will have to come down. When this rule is implemented, fresh pilot grads will still be a number of years away from any real income. What this will likely mean is that future pilots will be in it more for the love of the profession than for near or mid-term economic gain. Couple that with the age-65 stagnation at the majors and you have a recipe for some VERY interesting outcomes.

3. The continued decrease in check-hauling will also eliminate the bridging of the 1200 to 1500 hour gap. This might mean that 135 outfits that are still doing some freight may be hesitant to hire anyone with less than 1500 hours, since they are potentially gone in 300 hours.

4. Lobbying for work-arounds. If/when a shortage of pilots arises, expect industry to lobby for inclusion of large amounts of sim time, or some other 'equivalency' training.

5. Lots of demand for ratty 152 rental aircraft, or LSA rentals.

One thing I DO know for absolute certain:

The effect of this rule change will provide for a wealth of entertainment on flightinfo for several years to come. Looking forward to it.

 

[General Lee]

"Empty Nipple" rich kid wonders won't be in demand anymore, and instead FedEx Caravan pilots will be, for a price. That is awesome.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[say again]

Im just glad I have the time, and experience to not have to worry about this.

 

[sflax]

There is a big difference between 1500 tt and an ATP. The XC time is very very hard to get as a FI.

 

[BigPappa]

It is about time! I am sick of instructing from the left seat.

 

[Tarzan]

any requirements for a certain type of flying? I mean, come on, 1500 hours going around the pattern as a CFI in a Cessna 152 is fairly worthless IMO. On the other hand, some kid whos been flying night freight for 5 or 600 hours in some beat up old Baron or Cessna 310 in all types of weather would be a heck of a lot better than the 1500 hour traffic pattern CFI. (IMO)

Either way, it beats the hell out of a guy walking into a regional job with a wet Comm ticket. At least the CFI has the seat time to be able recognize a screw up when it is happening (most of them). The greta thing about teaching for those that have done it, is that it makes you a little bit more humble after you watch people from all walks of life make the same exact mistakes. Sorta makes you realize how the FARs are in fact written in blood.

 

[waka]

There will be much more masterbating going on, This is very good news for fruit of the loom....1500 hours is going to take FOREVER to get.

That is spelled; m-a-s-t-u-r-b-a-t-i-n-g! Don't ask my how I know!:0

 

[Flybywire44]

So will all current FOs have to get an ATP as well? If so, what will happen to the ones that cannot meet ATP standards?

 

[Poahi]

I guess it'll have to be like it used to be. Instruct, go fly some middle-of-the-night freight. Get some experience. It builds character!

If instructors are going to need 1500 hours to get on with an airline, and the students are going to need 1500 hours by instructing, who are the instructors going to teach?

In other words, you are going to have a huge increase of instructors chasing fewer students. It will take years to build 1500 hours of instruction time. In addition, since airlines don't pay well, how long is it going to take before you can earn a decent living? It will not pencil out. Then, there will be a shortage of pilots and wage pressure will force the airlines in to better contracts.

You are probably going to see instructors paying students to build time. It's a simple case of supply and demand.

 

[Salukipilot4590]

You are probably going to see instructors paying students to build time.

Nah...I'd just have friends pay pro-rata to fly places. Seems to be working lately!

 

[livin'thesim]

There is a big difference between 1500 tt and an ATP. The XC time is very very hard to get as a FI.

Dang - I forgot about that part.

You're absolutely right! The requirement was clarified several years ago to require 50nm from origin. Unlike the 135 requirement which is still airport to airport (if I remember correctly). ??

Negotiating leverage, here we come!!!

 

[acaTerry]

any requirements for a certain type of flying? I mean, come on, 1500 hours going around the pattern as a CFI in a Cessna 152 is fairly worthless IMO. On the other hand, some kid whos been flying night freight for 5 or 600 hours in some beat up old Baron or Cessna 310 in all types of weather would be a heck of a lot better than the 1500 hour traffic pattern CFI. (IMO)

I must respectfully disagree. I instructed for 4000 hrs, and when I got to the airlines I was well prepared and adapted quickly. On the other hand, a couple freight guys flunked out. Why? In my humble opinion I was getting better flight time as an instructor than the freight guys who were in my class. They memorized the approaches on their runs, never even took out the plates as I was told. They flew in real weather, yes, and I on the other hand was a cherry in IFR (west coast pilot). BUT, I knew the IFR system, charts, etc much better. I was more situationally aware than they were (again, years of the same 5 or 7 runs...sometimes as few as 2). Now, is this to say that as a rule that CFI is better? I have to say no, not as a rule. At the same time I have no more higher opinion of the abilities of my freight counterparts preparedness for airline flying than a CFI. It's my opinion that I was so much better than the freight guys because I took my instructing seriously. I was one of those guys who never could know enough, who was always looking for the other plane trying to hit me, and always trying to find something a little deeper than what the lesson plan called for. I varied what we did, and tried to expose the students to everything I could. Now granted, I am one of those guys who LOVES aviation so I put my whole effort in it. Do I think that's true of all CFI's? No, especially today in the age of el rapido flight school "training". I have observed that each generation of CFI is weaker than the one before, even though there are more resources available. I think it's because everyone only does it long enough to get away from it. So they have not even learned how to fly, much less instruct. This is where a freight guy beats the CFI hands down. BUT, a good CFI who gave his all will be just as good if not better than a freight guy if you balance it out. In the end, as airline piloting or any type of flying goes...you're never REALLY prepared for it until you've done it, as an FO, and for several years before upgrading.

 

[makersmarc]

I must respectfully disagree. I instructed for 4000 hrs, and when I got to the airlines I was well prepared and adapted quickly. On the other hand, a couple freight guys flunked out. Why? In my humble opinion I was getting better flight time as an instructor than the freight guys who were in my class. They memorized the approaches on their runs, never even took out the plates as I was told. They flew in real weather, yes, and I on the other hand was a cherry in IFR (west coast pilot). BUT, I knew the IFR system, charts, etc much better. I was more situationally aware than they were (again, years of the same 5 or 7 runs...sometimes as few as 2). Now, is this to say that as a rule that CFI is better? I have to say no, not as a rule. At the same time I have no more higher opinion of the abilities of my freight counterparts preparedness for airline flying than a CFI. It's my opinion that I was so much better than the freight guys because I took my instructing seriously. I was one of those guys who never could know enough, who was always looking for the other plane trying to hit me, and always trying to find something a little deeper than what the lesson plan called for. I varied what we did, and tried to expose the students to everything I could. Now granted, I am one of those guys who LOVES aviation so I put my whole effort in it. Do I think that's true of all CFI's? No, especially today in the age of el rapido flight school "training". I have observed that each generation of CFI is weaker than the one before, even though there are more resources available. I think it's because everyone only does it long enough to get away from it. So they have not even learned how to fly, much less instruct. This is where a freight guy beats the CFI hands down. BUT, a good CFI who gave his all will be just as good if not better than a freight guy if you balance it out. In the end, as airline piloting or any type of flying goes...you're never REALLY prepared for it until you've done it, as an FO, and for several years before upgrading.

I agree 100%

 

[Motown]

There is a big difference between 1500 tt and an ATP. The XC time is very very hard to get as a FI.

Huh? XC time was EASY to get when I was working as a CFI. All you need to do is have your student fly at least 50 NM away from your departure airport during flight lessons... FAR 61.1 says you have to fly to and land at a point at least 50 nm away from your departure airport EXCEPT for the requirements for an ATP (no landing required).

On almost every lesson, I had my students fly at least a half hour or more in one direction while I had them practice whatever we were working on, making sure I verified we were over some point at least 50 NM away from our departure airport. Although not required for the ATP, I usually made sure we touched down somewhere outside of that 50 NM ring, as well. I'd pick a sleepy little airport to practice pattern work that was 51 nm away, or pick a road 53 NM away to do ground ref. man. work. I almost always kept our home-airport's DME up on the display so I could see when we passed the 50 DME mark.

By doing this, I made sure that the student logged XC time for his/her future rating requirements, I logged XC time for my ATP requirements, and we got more work done because we got away from the "extend your downwind, I'll call your base, you're looking for the 4th aircraft on final" calls the rest of the instructors usually dealt with when teaching.

Situational awareness isn't just about knowing which side of the procedure turn you're on; it's also about knowing which side of the next rating's requirements your student is on.

 

[COOPERVANE]

Sorry....Dont want to hear any whining about "how am I going to get to 1500 hours"

I had around 2000 hours when hired at a regional. I felt fortunate. It wasn't that hard, but I couldn't buy it and it didn't just fall into my lap. I earned it.

It's called paying your dues. If you did it you understand. If you didn't or don't want to, you won't, simple as that.

 

[LowlyPropCapt]

I must respectfully disagree. I instructed for 4000 hrs, and when I got to the airlines I was well prepared and adapted quickly. On the other hand, a couple freight guys flunked out. Why? In my humble opinion I was getting better flight time as an instructor than the freight guys who were in my class. They memorized the approaches on their runs, never even took out the plates as I was told. They flew in real weather, yes, and I on the other hand was a cherry in IFR (west coast pilot). BUT, I knew the IFR system, charts, etc much better. I was more situationally aware than they were (again, years of the same 5 or 7 runs...sometimes as few as 2). Now, is this to say that as a rule that CFI is better? I have to say no, not as a rule. At the same time I have no more higher opinion of the abilities of my freight counterparts preparedness for airline flying than a CFI. It's my opinion that I was so much better than the freight guys because I took my instructing seriously. I was one of those guys who never could know enough, who was always looking for the other plane trying to hit me, and always trying to find something a little deeper than what the lesson plan called for. I varied what we did, and tried to expose the students to everything I could. Now granted, I am one of those guys who LOVES aviation so I put my whole effort in it. Do I think that's true of all CFI's? No, especially today in the age of el rapido flight school "training". I have observed that each generation of CFI is weaker than the one before, even though there are more resources available. I think it's because everyone only does it long enough to get away from it. So they have not even learned how to fly, much less instruct. This is where a freight guy beats the CFI hands down. BUT, a good CFI who gave his all will be just as good if not better than a freight guy if you balance it out. In the end, as airline piloting or any type of flying goes...you're never REALLY prepared for it until you've done it, as an FO, and for several years before upgrading.

+1 as well. Outstanding post.

What any sort of flying, be in CFIing or 135, does is build maturity. Learning the less tangible lessons of being a professional pilot are much better done with none or just a few folks on board, rather than an RJ with 50 souls or more.

I would welcome the change... It might also give us pilots a little pricing power for a change.

A am more concerned about what this means for commuting.

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

Excellent post, acaTerry.

I've seen the same thing- I only instructed for 1200 hours (got hired by pinnacle with 1750 TT), but that was some of the most valuable time I had. Being an instructor is extremely rewarding if you really take the time to do it right. That combined with flying small time corporate ops where we were going numerous destinations made the transition to the airlines quite straight forward.

I am very pleased with this new reg and what it will do to the pilot mills. Good riddance!

 

[MACH-TUCK]

The FAA missed the boat on this one. I believe the damage is already done. There are thousands of (121) pilots out there from these training programs already flying the line at many different airlines. The problem is that most of them are still in the right seat and never really had to do much "decision making". Now when they start upgrading and their put in sticky situations, with someone else that just came from the same 0-hero school. Then you got some serious issues with lives at stake, and I hope to God my family isn't on board.
Once again its the FAA writing rules/regs in blood. They should have done this 15yrs ago and maybe we wouldn't be having this problem.

 

[Erlanger]

You're going to see alot more false entries in log books as people try to get up to 1500 hours. Getting an ATP is not good enough. How can the quality of flying be monitored?