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How will Pilot shops survive the purposed FAA mandate of 1500/ATP

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Once the attrition goes back to 30 a month again, when the majors start hiring, a company could be put out of business after a "few years" of waiting for the market to balance itself. If ASA can't complete flights, Delta will remove our flying.

Of course, this is way out in the future, but it will come.

Who ever pays the best and gives the best QOL will make it. ASA will make it. TSA and Mesa types will not.
 
And you're speaking on behalf of all the training departments?

No.

I am basing it on what areas of operation are required for an ATP check per 61.157 and the ATP PTS vs. what is required for Part 121 SIC proficiency check per 121 Appendix E.

What could happen and what will happen in order for current non-ATP FOs to get that certificate are two different things...but that doesn't change the fact a rating could easily be issued during a normal recurrent PC for no additional cost in training.
 
Apparently they'll have to do it the old fashioned way like many of us did. Putting 300 hour wonders in the right seat was a bad idea, anyway.

For many years, one couldn't be competitive for the right seat of a regional without 2,500 hours or so, let alone tipping the scales at barely qualified for the ATP.

Raising the bar a little isn't going to hurt anything that doesn't need hurting, and it's certainly not going to compromise or damage the industry.

I completely agree. I think 1500 hours and an ATP is a good requirement for a professional pilot.

When I was hired at a regional back in 02' I had 2300 hours and 275 multi. Yes, I didn't have my ATP but....I met all the requirements and could have (I just wanted to save a little $$$$ and have the airline give it to me). But if an ATP was required, it would not have been a problem.

I worked hard for those hours and felt like I earned my $17k a year job flying turbo props. I felt well trained, learned, experienced, and knowledgeable. I feel sometimes that the 300 hour wonder pilots haven't earned their keep and I question the skills and experience at that level. Twenty years ago guys had to fight each other to get a regional job and had thousands of hours of experience which usually consisted of late night freight jobs. Those guys had it rough and earned their job.

I just watched a Northwest CRJ 200 attempt to land in White Plains, NY today during a thunderstorm, gusty winds and a 15+ knot tailwind. I was in disbelief watching this and almost shouted out "go around". Thankfully the pilots at that point did so as they went floating down the runway 20 feet above it. I'm not knocking their skills, but what training an experience would have lead you to even attempt such a thing?
 
I just watched a Northwest CRJ 200 attempt to land in White Plains, NY today during a thunderstorm, gusty winds and a 15+ knot tailwind. I was in disbelief watching this and almost shouted out "go around". Thankfully the pilots at that point did so as they went floating down the runway 20 feet above it. I'm not knocking their skills, but what training an experience would have lead you to even attempt such a thing?

its the regionals.....they allow for a certain percentage of "losses"

the 1500 hour wonder pilot "can" be just as dangerous without any kind of real worl experience in crappy weather.

He probly thought, well it looks ok, if it gets bad we'll go around. Well fine, but then what?

I think 1500+ ATP is still cutting it a bit thin. Pay those pilots top dollar and you'll get the best.

i dont shop arounf for the cheapest heart surgeon, I go to cleveland clinic.
 
Wrong.

Free markets do always 'balance' themselves. The problem is we may not like what that balance turns out to be. It could be a monopoly or a complete collapse of all players, leaving a clean slate for a new start-up to take advantage.

Both scenarios are brutal and ugly, but so is the ultimate balance of entropy.

"Wrong"? Well, no. It is correct.....correct in that you're prefacing your argument on your definition of "balance". Monopoly to complete collapse of all players leading to the same cycle is the widest possible range. That is not saying much to the blind faith in the market insofar as using the market to guide public policy (big mistake). These variables would certainly not fall into my definition of balance. True balance of the market can only be achieved through a well regulated market. However, your opinion is duly noted.
 
For the most part, free markets do achieve equilibrium, all on their own, and much more efficiently than "regulators" ever could. Prices set themselves such that supply and demand are always in balance.

I couldn't disagree more. Equilibrium in the market can only be achieved through well placed regulation.


I challenge you to show me how the free market would not achieve balance in this new proposed situation, in which ATPs would be the new requirement yet not enough currently exist.


I suppose it would in the proposed situation. I just took issue about your statement in general encompassing the free market concept as a whole.
 
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