How will Pilot shops survive the purposed FAA mandate of 1500/ATP

[cmrflyer]

We can only hope it dries up the supply of new pilots.
If the demand for new plots returns, the only choice the airlines will have is to increase wages to attract people to waste their money to come into the profession.

 

[badlander45]

What are you doing, reading the RAA talking points?!?

The industry won't die, people and products still need to move and will. Some carriers may die, and if they do they probably needed to go anyhow.

Let's have a little math fun, shall we? [note, I haven't flown for a regional, so I'm trying to be pessimistic in my numbers, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong]

Let's say we're going to have to bump FO pay from $17K to $50K to attract applicants - that's a difference of $23K.

Assuming our FO flies 180 days in a year [sounds low to me], that works out to a pay increase of about $128 per day each day he works. Let's assume he averages 5 legs a day [again, I think that's low], that works out to about $26 per leg. Assume an 80% load factor (and I haven't been on a flight recently that was only 80% full) and that works out to roughly 65 cents per passenger per leg. If my numbers are indeed conservative, and the FO works more "revenue days" a year, averages more than 5 legs per day, or has a CRJ or ERJ with more than 40 passengers, the costs are further diluted, resulting in less expense per passenger.

Now, let's give the Captain a similar bump, now we're at $1.30 per pax. Go crazy and double that to account for other compensation expenses that I haven't included (taxes, 410K match, etc), and we have $2.60 per pax per leg. Now double it again just to be safe and account for reserves and anything else you care to throw in with the kitchen sink. That works out to $5.20 per passenger per leg, so assuming the average pax flies two legs, they are going to have to increase fares less than $21 for the round trip to cover the cost of increasing wages. Remembering that all regionals are going to be effected by this, I don't see a $21 R/T having that much of an effect. I'm sure there will be a few people who won't go to see Grandma for thanks giving, but on the whole it just isn't that big an increase - if a family of 5 was going to Disney, that's a $105 increase in their R/T. Given what such a trip costs in the first place, that's not much of an increase. I'm doubting the average business traveler will notice a $21 increase per leg trip, which works out to $1050 increase per year if he travels once a week.

I just don't see it affecting passenger traffic that much.

Most intelligent post of the entire thread.

 

[BoilerUP]

Most intelligent post of the entire thread.

...except for the fact it doesn't reflect the reality of where regional airlines make their revenue.

 

[cl604driver]

I think it is great. Experience is invaluable and u dont have that with 300 hrs. Sorry but you dont and the required sim dosent give u that either. I know the pay sucks and schedules are horrible but I am happy that this law has passed. Until know I have not ever ridden on a regional airline even if it meant a inconvience to me or my travels. Cant bring myself to ride on one with a possible 300 hrs f.o. in right seat. Been around long enough to know experience keeps you alive.

 

[BoilerUP]

I am happy that this law has passed.

It hasn't passed yet.

Until know I have not ever ridden on a regional airline even if it meant a inconvience to me or my travels. Cant bring myself to ride on one with a possible 300 hrs f.o. in right seat.

You evidently don't airline much to small or mid-sized cities all across our country, especially in the last 8 years.

Been around long enough to know experience keeps you alive.

Yes, because we all know high-time pilots are immune from doing things that bend metal and get people killed...especially those pilots who fly Challengers.

 

[Tristar]

Tristar, the problem with your math (other than $17k to $50k is a $33,000 difference not 23,000) is that it doesn't take into account the nature of fee-for-departure contracts.

Major airlines are NOT going to pay their contracted regional carriers one red cent more than their contract stipulates. As such, regional airlines will have to absorb these increased costs with no increase in their revenue. In an industry that already operates on razor-thin margins, this could literally break the finances of many regional airlines.

Dang! You've certainly got me on the math. That's what I get for trying to cipher before I'm awake in the morning.

I understand your point on the fee for departure issue, but I maintain that if the pilot supply is limited, and all the players have to pay more to attract talent, the majors are going to have to pay more.

 

[woog315]

Tristar, the problem with your math (other than $17k to $50k is a $33,000 difference not 23,000) is that it doesn't take into account the nature of fee-for-departure contracts.

Major airlines are NOT going to pay their contracted regional carriers one red cent more than their contract stipulates. As such, regional airlines will have to absorb these increased costs with no increase in their revenue. In an industry that already operates on razor-thin margins, this could literally break the finances of many regional airlines.

When the regionals can't fulfill their contractual obligations because they can't get crews to cover the routes, the terms will change or go to a regional that's charging more but can cover the runs.

 

[acaTerry]

The Encore circles at 170kt?

No I was referring to a real jet, not my straight winged ship. Hell, I think the Encore can hold still sometimes.

 

[BoilerUP]

It might be a straight-winged slowtation, but not many planes are going to outclimb ya!

 

[acaTerry]

That's the truth. For the first time in my life I aint scared to take off behind a 757...except in SFO and LAS.

 

[Hobit]

Boiler,

Did you believe the 12-14mil net profit per quarter running around AWAC a few years ago? If true, that's far from thin IMHO.

 

[BoilerUP]

Boiler,

Did you believe the 12-14mil net profit per quarter running around AWAC a few years ago? If true, that's far from thin IMHO.

I never heard figures that high...but as a private company its a bit harder to verify its financials vs. a companies like Skywest, RAH, XJT, etc. The Amigos seem to be pretty smart businessmen though, so it wouldn't surprise me if those figures were accurate.

Since most regionals don't pay for their own fuel, it would follow that labor is their biggest expense and pilots the highest among employee groups. If you effectively double pilot salary expenses, that would have to be accounted for somewhere...

 

[rajflyboy]

At least as a flight instructor you learn:

"WHEN TO TAKE THE PLANE FROM THE STUDENT" or "Other Pilot"

This is good to know throughout a pilot's career.

 

[av8orboy]

Who cares?

 

[airmonkey]

Absolutely the best thing that could happen. I heard a pilot-mill kiddie a few days ago crying that he now had 500hrs but if he was going to have to instruct/trafficwatch/whatever for another year he was done with flying. "But I was supposed to be at an airline by now, I mean I spent almost $100K at ATP."

1500 hours is going to separate the wheat from the chaff and help excise the cancer of "summer camp zero to hero" pilots and the programs that squirt them out.

Of course 1500 (or any arbitrary #) isn't a guarantee that someone has what it takes NOT to be tonights leading news story BUT it does do alot for the process of weeding out while keeping you from doing it with 50 pax. Bad judgement/skills/decision-making WILL knock on everyones door at some point looking to collect. Experience is legal tender for that bill.

The message boards are filled with doubtful comments of how an extra year spent teaching steep turns or dragging banners isn't going to make anyone a better pilot. I'd bet that most adherants to that line of thinking are on the front side of that year and not the tail end. Its possible to add an hour or two to the logbook where you really didn't learn much but if you can add 500 hours doing any type of flying and NOT experience/learn something that will keep your ass out of a sling then you are a brick who might be in the wrong business and surely need to look up what professionalism entails.

So if flying is the game for you suck it up, look at 1500 hours an an oppourtunity to build up that reserve savings account of experience and knowledge and make that time worth something instead of being worthless.