How will Pilot shops survive the purposed FAA mandate of 1500/ATP

[JustaNumber]

:laugh:
First, the "free marker" is not a free market, thankfully. Secondly, the market is not some perfect machine and it is pure fantasy to think that the "market" always balances itself.

I agree we currently don't have a completely free market. Also, the free market may not be perfect (i.e. monopolies can be created), but it is much better than the opposite of a free market, which is totalitarianism. For the most part, free markets do achieve equilibrium, all on their own, and much more efficiently than "regulators" ever could. Prices set themselves such that supply and demand are always in balance.

I challenge you to show me how the free market would not achieve balance in this new proposed situation, in which ATPs would be the new requirement yet not enough currently exist.

If you make the rule and sit back and watch, the market will provide the necessary resources (ATP pilots).

 

[COOPERVANE]

I agree there will probably be more pencil whipping in the logbooks. And I agree with those that say instructing prepared them well. I was at my sharpest when I was teaching.

www.squealonyourcompetition.com

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I had an ATP-MEL, and back in 2001, I could not get hired, while many regionals were hiring guys with way less than 1000 (or 500) total time. They said I was not qualified, and the 300 TT guys was.

Interesting...

cliff
NBO

 

[ohplease!]

[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica]ATP FAA REQUIREMENT[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica]Sec. 61.151 Eligibility requirements: General.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica]To be eligible for an airline transport pilot certificate, a person must--[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](a) Be at least 23 years of age;[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](b) Be able to read, speak, write, and understand the English language.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](c) Be of good moral character;[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](d) Meet at least one of the following requirements[/FONT]

(b) oops. there goes Pinnacle.
(c) and there goes the ATR crowd.

 

[buscap]

:laugh:
First, the "free marker" is not a free market, thankfully. Secondly, the market is not some perfect machine and it is pure fantasy to think that the "market" always balances itself.

Wrong.

Free markets do always 'balance' themselves. The problem is we may not like what that balance turns out to be. It could be a monopoly or a complete collapse of all players, leaving a clean slate for a new start-up to take advantage.

Both scenarios are brutal and ugly, but so is the ultimate balance of entropy.

 

[samballs]

(b) oops. there goes Pinnacle.
(c) and there goes the ATR crowd.

The list goes on
Mesa
TSA
TSA - security
the girl at ASA that always ends with " have a good day ya'll" very annoying if following her

 

[ohplease!]

The list goes on
Mesa
TSA
TSA - security
the girl at ASA that always ends with " have a good day ya'll" very annoying if following her

ah! I know here. She's a sweetheart. And damned cute.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

...You won't fill the class immediately. But let the situation work itself out for a few years, and supply and demand will be back in balance again. The free market always balances itself.

As long as exceptions aren't allowed (which would defeat the whole purpose), airlines will be forced to increase compensation. There are numerous ATP's who previously have left the industry voluntarily, who would return for the right pay. Student pilots would be more willing to do whatever it takes for several years of poverty if the end price is right. The end result will be higher compensation and more experienced regional pilots. Unless exceptions are made....

Once the attrition goes back to 30 a month again, when the majors start hiring, a company could be put out of business after a "few years" of waiting for the market to balance itself. If ASA can't complete flights, Delta will remove our flying.

Of course, this is way out in the future, but it will come.

 

[cfi_greg]

Just a thought, if the FAA mandates an ATP for all 121 flying whats going to happen to all the right seaters who just hold a commercial? I don't think the airlines are going to pony up for this.

 

[BoilerUP]

Just a thought, if the FAA mandates an ATP for all 121 flying whats going to happen to all the right seaters who just hold a commercial? I don't think the airlines are going to pony up for this.

Current 121 FOs without an ATP would be grandfathered in...but an ATP can easily be given during a recurrent PC for no additional time or cost.

 

[cfi_greg]

Current 121 FOs without an ATP would be grandfathered in...but an ATP can easily be given during a recurrent PC for no additional time or cost.

Makes sense.

 

[Cpt Oveur]

Current 121 FOs without an ATP would be grandfathered in...but an ATP can easily be given during a recurrent PC for no additional time or cost.

And you're speaking on behalf of all the training departments?

 

[Tarzan]

the girl at ASA that always ends with " have a good day ya'll" very annoying if following her

I'll fly with her anytime.

 

[Tarzan]

Once the attrition goes back to 30 a month again, when the majors start hiring, a company could be put out of business after a "few years" of waiting for the market to balance itself. If ASA can't complete flights, Delta will remove our flying.

Of course, this is way out in the future, but it will come.

Who ever pays the best and gives the best QOL will make it. ASA will make it. TSA and Mesa types will not.

 

[BoilerUP]

And you're speaking on behalf of all the training departments?

No.

I am basing it on what areas of operation are required for an ATP check per 61.157 and the ATP PTS vs. what is required for Part 121 SIC proficiency check per 121 Appendix E.

What could happen and what will happen in order for current non-ATP FOs to get that certificate are two different things...but that doesn't change the fact a rating could easily be issued during a normal recurrent PC for no additional cost in training.

 

[deadstick]

the girl at ASA that always ends with " have a good day ya'll" very annoying if following her

It's " y'all " for "you all."

 

[cldsfr79]

Apparently they'll have to do it the old fashioned way like many of us did. Putting 300 hour wonders in the right seat was a bad idea, anyway.

For many years, one couldn't be competitive for the right seat of a regional without 2,500 hours or so, let alone tipping the scales at barely qualified for the ATP.

Raising the bar a little isn't going to hurt anything that doesn't need hurting, and it's certainly not going to compromise or damage the industry.

I completely agree. I think 1500 hours and an ATP is a good requirement for a professional pilot.

When I was hired at a regional back in 02' I had 2300 hours and 275 multi. Yes, I didn't have my ATP but....I met all the requirements and could have (I just wanted to save a little $$$$ and have the airline give it to me). But if an ATP was required, it would not have been a problem.

I worked hard for those hours and felt like I earned my $17k a year job flying turbo props. I felt well trained, learned, experienced, and knowledgeable. I feel sometimes that the 300 hour wonder pilots haven't earned their keep and I question the skills and experience at that level. Twenty years ago guys had to fight each other to get a regional job and had thousands of hours of experience which usually consisted of late night freight jobs. Those guys had it rough and earned their job.

I just watched a Northwest CRJ 200 attempt to land in White Plains, NY today during a thunderstorm, gusty winds and a 15+ knot tailwind. I was in disbelief watching this and almost shouted out "go around". Thankfully the pilots at that point did so as they went floating down the runway 20 feet above it. I'm not knocking their skills, but what training an experience would have lead you to even attempt such a thing?

 

[brokeflyer]

I just watched a Northwest CRJ 200 attempt to land in White Plains, NY today during a thunderstorm, gusty winds and a 15+ knot tailwind. I was in disbelief watching this and almost shouted out "go around". Thankfully the pilots at that point did so as they went floating down the runway 20 feet above it. I'm not knocking their skills, but what training an experience would have lead you to even attempt such a thing?

its the regionals.....they allow for a certain percentage of "losses"

the 1500 hour wonder pilot "can" be just as dangerous without any kind of real worl experience in crappy weather.

He probly thought, well it looks ok, if it gets bad we'll go around. Well fine, but then what?

I think 1500+ ATP is still cutting it a bit thin. Pay those pilots top dollar and you'll get the best.

i dont shop arounf for the cheapest heart surgeon, I go to cleveland clinic.

 

[waka]

Wrong.

Free markets do always 'balance' themselves. The problem is we may not like what that balance turns out to be. It could be a monopoly or a complete collapse of all players, leaving a clean slate for a new start-up to take advantage.

Both scenarios are brutal and ugly, but so is the ultimate balance of entropy.

"Wrong"? Well, no. It is correct.....correct in that you're prefacing your argument on your definition of "balance". Monopoly to complete collapse of all players leading to the same cycle is the widest possible range. That is not saying much to the blind faith in the market insofar as using the market to guide public policy (big mistake). These variables would certainly not fall into my definition of balance. True balance of the market can only be achieved through a well regulated market. However, your opinion is duly noted.

 

[waka]

For the most part, free markets do achieve equilibrium, all on their own, and much more efficiently than "regulators" ever could. Prices set themselves such that supply and demand are always in balance.

I couldn't disagree more. Equilibrium in the market can only be achieved through well placed regulation.

I challenge you to show me how the free market would not achieve balance in this new proposed situation, in which ATPs would be the new requirement yet not enough currently exist.

I suppose it would in the proposed situation. I just took issue about your statement in general encompassing the free market concept as a whole.