How will Pilot shops survive the purposed FAA mandate of 1500/ATP

[RP170]

I was impressed though that they brought up pilot student loans. A bank should never lend someone 100K to make 16K a year.

Another example of why this country is in the shape it's in.

 

[livin'thesim]

I won't try to predict to strongly the economic outcome of this rule change, other than to say that there WILL be an economic outcome that is different in some way.

A few possibilities:

1. Drastically reduced student starts. There will be NO ILLUSIONS about flying a jet at 300 hours. Pilot mills will not be able to sell this 'dream' any longer.

2. The cost of flight training at large schools like ERAU will have to come down. When this rule is implemented, fresh pilot grads will still be a number of years away from any real income. What this will likely mean is that future pilots will be in it more for the love of the profession than for near or mid-term economic gain. Couple that with the age-65 stagnation at the majors and you have a recipe for some VERY interesting outcomes.

3. The continued decrease in check-hauling will also eliminate the bridging of the 1200 to 1500 hour gap. This might mean that 135 outfits that are still doing some freight may be hesitant to hire anyone with less than 1500 hours, since they are potentially gone in 300 hours.

4. Lobbying for work-arounds. If/when a shortage of pilots arises, expect industry to lobby for inclusion of large amounts of sim time, or some other 'equivalency' training.

5. Lots of demand for ratty 152 rental aircraft, or LSA rentals.

One thing I DO know for absolute certain:

The effect of this rule change will provide for a wealth of entertainment on flightinfo for several years to come. Looking forward to it.

 

[General Lee]

"Empty Nipple" rich kid wonders won't be in demand anymore, and instead FedEx Caravan pilots will be, for a price. That is awesome.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[say again]

Im just glad I have the time, and experience to not have to worry about this.

 

[sflax]

There is a big difference between 1500 tt and an ATP. The XC time is very very hard to get as a FI.

 

[BigPappa]

It is about time! I am sick of instructing from the left seat.

 

[Tarzan]

any requirements for a certain type of flying? I mean, come on, 1500 hours going around the pattern as a CFI in a Cessna 152 is fairly worthless IMO. On the other hand, some kid whos been flying night freight for 5 or 600 hours in some beat up old Baron or Cessna 310 in all types of weather would be a heck of a lot better than the 1500 hour traffic pattern CFI. (IMO)

Either way, it beats the hell out of a guy walking into a regional job with a wet Comm ticket. At least the CFI has the seat time to be able recognize a screw up when it is happening (most of them). The greta thing about teaching for those that have done it, is that it makes you a little bit more humble after you watch people from all walks of life make the same exact mistakes. Sorta makes you realize how the FARs are in fact written in blood.

 

[waka]

There will be much more masterbating going on, This is very good news for fruit of the loom....1500 hours is going to take FOREVER to get.

That is spelled; m-a-s-t-u-r-b-a-t-i-n-g! Don't ask my how I know!:0

 

[Flybywire44]

So will all current FOs have to get an ATP as well? If so, what will happen to the ones that cannot meet ATP standards?

 

[Poahi]

I guess it'll have to be like it used to be. Instruct, go fly some middle-of-the-night freight. Get some experience. It builds character!

If instructors are going to need 1500 hours to get on with an airline, and the students are going to need 1500 hours by instructing, who are the instructors going to teach?

In other words, you are going to have a huge increase of instructors chasing fewer students. It will take years to build 1500 hours of instruction time. In addition, since airlines don't pay well, how long is it going to take before you can earn a decent living? It will not pencil out. Then, there will be a shortage of pilots and wage pressure will force the airlines in to better contracts.

You are probably going to see instructors paying students to build time. It's a simple case of supply and demand.