How will Pilot shops survive the purposed FAA mandate of 1500/ATP

[Crash Pad]

Couple of thoughts. Great Lakes Aviation LTD. is screwed. I don't think people will get 1500TT and an ATP in the hopes of making $15 and a quick upgrade.

Say you are ASA right now. Are you sure you want to furlough? Say you need to hire in the future... the well of ATP's is a little shallow. Sure you can pick up a 1500 hour FO but the ATP will be the trick. I'm guessing current FO's will be grandfathered in.

If ALPA doesn't seize on this... They are idiots.

 

[CaribPilot]

Some number crunching...

Any time you decrease the pool of labor, you put upward pressure on wages. How much I don't know. But there will be upward pressure.

That is the x-factor here. If QOL and wages do not increase, regional carriers and some major carriers will not be able to hire anyone once all the furloughed guys are re-hired.

Delta, CAL, UAL and AMR will need to replace 28923 pilots between 2010 and 2031. As of 7/30/2009, there are 6322 pilots on furlough from Majors, Regionals, Cargo, Charter and 135. This number does not include unannounced or rumored fuloughs. That leaves 22601 pilots to be hired in the next 20 years from only 4 legacy carriers, and that does not include any airline re-growth from this last few years of shrinking due to falling demand. That also does not include USAir, FedEx, UPS, Southwest, and a bunch of other carriers with substantial retirement numbers.

A larger chunk of those guys needed at the higher 121 level will come from regionals, the other portion from military, and the smaller percentage will come from other areas. Assuming the legislation passes, but pay/QOL stay the same as they are now, what do you guys think will happen?

 

[time builder]

Couple of thoughts. Great Lakes Aviation LTD. is screwed. I don't think people will get 1500TT and an ATP in the hopes of making $15 and a quick upgrade.

Say you are ASA right now. Are you sure you want to furlough? Say you need to hire in the future... the well of ATP's is a little shallow. Sure you can pick up a 1500 hour FO but the ATP will be the trick. I'm guessing current FO's will be grandfathered in.

If ALPA doesn't seize on this... They are idiots.

I agree, current airline FO's without the ATP will most likely be grandfathered in.

The bottom feeder airlines are screwed if this bill passes. As compensation is demanded at the regional level, outsourcing will become less and less appealing, and we may see a return of a lot of the major airline flying lost to regionals in the last decade.

 

[BoilerUP]

The elimination of zero-to-hero pilots who want no part of professional development (instructing, fire/line patrol, traffic watch, skydivers, etc) won't hurt at all. Additionally, collegiate programs will have to find a new niche to market to prospective students, as the 500/50 bridge programs of 2004-2007 won't exist AT ALL. I suspect many flight schools and a few college programs will shutter due to a drop-off in demand.

Unfortunately, I do see some charlatan flight school operators taking advantage of this situation though, low-balling their CFIs in pay even more than some already do because they know the CFIs have to put up with it long enough to meet the requirements to hold an ATP.

135 cargo has been and is disappearing; the experiences of many regional pilots in Barons or 'hos is quickly going the way of the 727...and many of those twins are being replaced by Caravans (which while SE probably provide better icing experience than ANY other airframe).

This is going to make networking THAT much more important, especially for up-and-coming pilots who will be scratching to get to that magical number. Hopefully, there will be a corresponding financial payoff for their time and financial investments when they "get there".

 

[SLUF4]

I agree there will probably be more pencil whipping in the logbooks. And I agree with those that say instructing prepared them well. I was at my sharpest when I was teaching.

 

[jmreii]

You're going to see alot more false entries in log books as people try to get up to 1500 hours. Getting an ATP is not good enough. How can the quality of flying be monitored?

You might be right but many instructor pilots and check airmen can tell what type of flight this is going to be before you leave the gate.

 

[joe_pilot]

"Working as a flight instructor prepares you for 121 flying"

"Freight Dogs make good 121 pilots"

Both of the above statements are TRUE...and FALSE.

As a CFI with a couple thousand hours dual given (99% initial instrument and CFII students), I have to say that it helped prepare me for my freight job.

As a freight dog, I have to say that my time spent carrying checks around in bad weather prepared me to deal with anything

(Except CRM. Having two guys in the cockpit was hard at first)

It depends on the type and variety of flying you are doing. Period. A 1200 hr flight instructor who then flies another 500 hrs in an all-weather light twin is better off than a 1700 hour flight instructor.

Of course opinions are like airline CEOs...

 

[Leroy Smith]

I must respectfully disagree. I instructed for 4000 hrs, and when I got to the airlines I was well prepared and adapted quickly....................... because I took my instructing seriously. I was one of those guys who never could know enough, who was always looking for the other plane trying to hit me, and always trying to find something a little deeper than what the lesson plan called for. I varied what we did, and tried to expose the students to everything I could. Now granted, I am one of those guys who LOVES aviation so I put my whole effort in it. Do I think that's true of all CFI's? No, especially today in the age of el rapido flight school "training". I have observed that each generation of CFI is weaker than the one before, even though there are more resources available. I think it's because everyone only does it long enough to get away from it. So they have not even learned how to fly, much less instruct.......................

+1

The numbnuts who are just putting in their time and checking off the boxes, flying around the pattern as CFI's will never amount to anything. I knew some very sharp checkhaulers, but a lot of them were also real slackers who cut every corner and only by the grace of god survived to move on to greener pastures. There will always be motivated people who love aviation, who will soak up every bit of knowledge and experience they can get and be the absolute best pilots they can be. And there will be always be the other arschlochs. At least the 1500/ATP mins would provide more opportunity for them to F it all up or lose interest.

I was one of those absolutely maniacal CFI's. I read everything, did everything, tried everything I could to learn more about aviation. I had 2200 and my ATP when I got hired at a regional. I was teaching in the mid-atlantic and had flown as far as Down East Maine, Key West and Louisiana. I had 130hrs of IMC (hundreds of flights - .2s and .3s) - hundreds of approaches in actual, dozens to mins, numerous misses and diversions. Flew light singles in crosswinds up to 35kts. Worked my way up the degree of severity in the weather slowly and cautiously, made sure I didnt get in over my head or boxed in (of course I did anyway, scared the crap out of myself numerous times- but I always had a plan B and C and a way out). Flew in a lot of IMC with students. I wasnt just a step ahead of the airplane, I had to be several steps ahead of my students because they were usually a step of two behind.

I didnt think that I was "truly" prepared to fly for an airline when I got hired. I realize now that I could have applied much earlier and been in a better position career-wise. But I have forgotten so much since getting into an RJ. The only real challenge is dealing with the system- the schedule, the company-- the logistics of flight and not the aviating. About the only satisfaction I can get from the flying is an occaisonal good visual (cleared way out, rolling out on final at the 500' callout, needles crossed, configured, on speed, etc), maybe some rough weather to deal with, or a particulary sporting crosswind. I wish that it was a little more satisfying, but I think its a good thing that I am generally bored with the flying.

I hate to think that anyone could get hired without a goodly number of "OH SH!T" moments under their belt. That their first real weather or their first really hard decision is with 50+ onboard, But really I am horrified that anyone wants to.......


We can only hope that the FAA, in all of its wisdom, does something that actually makes sense and does some good, instead of just complicating the process of moving people from airport to airport.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

The elimination of zero-to-hero pilots who want no part of professional development (instructing, fire/line patrol, traffic watch, skydivers, etc) won't hurt at all. Additionally, collegiate programs will have to find a new niche to market to prospective students, as the 500/50 bridge programs of 2004-2007 won't exist AT ALL. I suspect many flight schools and a few college programs will shutter due to a drop-off in demand.

Unfortunately, I do see some charlatan flight school operators taking advantage of this situation though, low-balling their CFIs in pay even more than some already do because they know the CFIs have to put up with it long enough to meet the requirements to hold an ATP.

135 cargo has been and is disappearing; the experiences of many regional pilots in Barons or 'hos is quickly going the way of the 727...and many of those twins are being replaced by Caravans (which while SE probably provide better icing experience than ANY other airframe).

This is going to make networking THAT much more important, especially for up-and-coming pilots who will be scratching to get to that magical number. Hopefully, there will be a corresponding financial payoff for their time and financial investments when they "get there".

If this rule passes, I'll bet there are some exceptions to the ATP rule that will be created, in the interests of not putting the regionals out of business. When the majors hire again, we aren't going to be able to fill classes as it is due to lack of CFIs and students in the pipeline, much less if there is an ATP rule. It doesn't matter if you pay $1,000,000 a year, if there aren't any flight instructors or students to hire, you won't fill the class.

 

[JustaNumber]

If this rule passes, I'll bet there are some exceptions to the ATP rule that will be created, in the interests of not putting the regionals out of business. When the majors hire again, we aren't going to be able to fill classes as it is due to lack of CFIs and students in the pipeline, much less if there is an ATP rule. It doesn't matter if you pay $1,000,000 a year, if there aren't any flight instructors or students to hire, you won't fill the class.

...You won't fill the class immediately. But let the situation work itself out for a few years, and supply and demand will be back in balance again. The free market always balances itself.

As long as exceptions aren't allowed (which would defeat the whole purpose), airlines will be forced to increase compensation. There are numerous ATP's who previously have left the industry voluntarily, who would return for the right pay. Student pilots would be more willing to do whatever it takes for several years of poverty if the end price is right. The end result will be higher compensation and more experienced regional pilots. Unless exceptions are made....

 

[time builder]

...and many of those twins are being replaced by Caravans (which while SE probably provide better icing experience than ANY other airframe).

It might be just in my neck of the woods (Utah, Idaho and Wyoming), but most of the caravan pilots I know are making over $50K per year, have sweet work rules, and have no intention of ever flying under part 121. A good number of them have been freight dogs for over 10 years and aren't going anywhere.

 

[livin'thesim]

And while we're at it, perhaps we could raise the upgrade requirement to 3000 hours.

 

[waka]

The free market always balances itself.

:laugh:
First, the "free marker" is not a free market, thankfully. Secondly, the market is not some perfect machine and it is pure fantasy to think that the "market" always balances itself.

 

[Eagle757shark]

[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica]ATP FAA REQUIREMENT[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica]Sec. 61.151 Eligibility requirements: General.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica]To be eligible for an airline transport pilot certificate, a person must--[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](a) Be at least 23 years of age;[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](b) Be able to read, speak, write, and understand the English language.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](c) Be of good moral character;[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](d) Meet at least one of the following requirements[/FONT]

 

[JustaNumber]

[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica]ATP FAA REQUIREMENT[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica]Sec. 61.151 Eligibility requirements: General.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica]To be eligible for an airline transport pilot certificate, a person must--[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](a) Be at least 23 years of age;[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](b) Be able to read, speak, write, and understand the English language.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](c) Be of good moral character;[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Arial, Helvetica](d) Meet at least one of the following requirements[/FONT]

There goes half of the FI crowd.