How will Pilot shops survive the purposed FAA mandate of 1500/ATP

[BoilerUP]

All you people bashing the regionals (some corporate dudes on here), get a grip!

Haven't really seen much of that, other than the retired NJA guy up the thread.

Ohhh, and forgot to mention that the Citation is sooooo slow that a Baron could beat it if it wanted to.

Not sure who that is directed at...if me, well that's kinda the point of my avatar. You know, satire and all.

But doing 400kt+ at FL450 and burning 730pph ain't too bad

 

[Tristar]

I like how people on this board think that landing this 17K per year job should be "earned" through many years of experience.

It shouldn't be a $17K a year job. Cut off the supply of puppy mill pilots and force the industry to adjust.

 

[Tristar]

Most of the people I work with are very skilled professionals.

Certainly true, and there are also many who are are just embarrassing, either through ignorance, inexperience, or just plain incompetence. Certainly there are guys at the majors that fit the same bill, but it certainly seems to be a much smaller percentage.

Corporate Flying: been there done that too. I remember a lot of guys that were far more dangerous in corporate aviation than the most inexperienced 121 guys that I've flown with (trying to please their boss).

True, but there are at least two major differences:
1) The boss knows who the pilot is, what his qualifications and background are. They have made a deliberate choice to select that pilot, whatever their qualifications may or may not be, and they accept that level of risk.
2) The boss knows who owns/operates the aircraft, and what level of training is provided for it's crew.
The traveling public is generally completely clueless on either of these topics and is limited in their ability to make informed decisions, partly due to the nonsense of "code-sharing."

Ohhh, and forgot to mention that the Citation is sooooo slow that a Baron could beat it if it wanted to.

I'd rather do a night circling approach in a Citation than a Baron, and on an average business stage length of about 400 miles, the slowest Citation will only arrive a few minutes later than the fastest business jet out there. Your point being?

 

[CaribPilot]

It shouldn't be a $17K a year job. Cut off the supply of puppy mill pilots and force the industry to adjust.

This industry will die a painful death before it adjusted its wages and rules for us.

 

[Tristar]

What are you doing, reading the RAA talking points?!?

The industry won't die, people and products still need to move and will. Some carriers may die, and if they do they probably needed to go anyhow.

Let's have a little math fun, shall we? [note, I haven't flown for a regional, so I'm trying to be pessimistic in my numbers, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong]

Let's say we're going to have to bump FO pay from $17K to $50K to attract applicants - that's a difference of $23K.

Assuming our FO flies 180 days in a year [sounds low to me], that works out to a pay increase of about $128 per day each day he works. Let's assume he averages 5 legs a day [again, I think that's low], that works out to about $26 per leg. Assume an 80% load factor (and I haven't been on a flight recently that was only 80% full) and that works out to roughly 65 cents per passenger per leg. If my numbers are indeed conservative, and the FO works more "revenue days" a year, averages more than 5 legs per day, or has a CRJ or ERJ with more than 40 passengers, the costs are further diluted, resulting in less expense per passenger.

Now, let's give the Captain a similar bump, now we're at $1.30 per pax. Go crazy and double that to account for other compensation expenses that I haven't included (taxes, 410K match, etc), and we have $2.60 per pax per leg. Now double it again just to be safe and account for reserves and anything else you care to throw in with the kitchen sink. That works out to $5.20 per passenger per leg, so assuming the average pax flies two legs, they are going to have to increase fares less than $21 for the round trip to cover the cost of increasing wages. Remembering that all regionals are going to be effected by this, I don't see a $21 R/T having that much of an effect. I'm sure there will be a few people who won't go to see Grandma for thanks giving, but on the whole it just isn't that big an increase - if a family of 5 was going to Disney, that's a $105 increase in their R/T. Given what such a trip costs in the first place, that's not much of an increase. I'm doubting the average business traveler will notice a $21 increase per leg trip, which works out to $1050 increase per year if he travels once a week.

I just don't see it affecting passenger traffic that much.

 

[fam62c]

My guess is the ATP (or 1500 hours) requirement for all 121 pilots is never going to happen. The carriers will lobby against this on the basis that it will drive up costs for consumers and the requirement will either be shot down completely or watered down with exceptions and exclusions to the point of basically being worthless. It will probably end up being 1500 hours for the average joe but 200 hours for pilots willing to go through a "special" school (very expensive) that meets certain "accelerated learning" requirements. I've been in this game a long time and, in the end, economics will always trump safety. Nobody is going to take away the supply of eager, cheap labor for the small airlines because the result would be a lower supply of qualified pilots, higher wages because of competition by carriers to fill jobs, increased union leverage and ultimately higher ticket prices. It's a WalMart world people and a few dead folks in Buffalo isn't going to change that. This will all blow over and in the end the customers will still buy the cheapest ticket. The public has a very short memory.

 

[BoilerUP]

Tristar, the problem with your math (other than $17k to $50k is a $33,000 difference not 23,000) is that it doesn't take into account the nature of fee-for-departure contracts.

Major airlines are NOT going to pay their contracted regional carriers one red cent more than their contract stipulates. As such, regional airlines will have to absorb these increased costs with no increase in their revenue. In an industry that already operates on razor-thin margins, this could literally break the finances of many regional airlines.

 

[acaTerry]

I'd rather do a night circling approach in a Citation than a Baron,

I don't know...doing that at 100 kts feels a lot better than 170.

 

[acaTerry]

Anyone know how to follow the progress on this NPRM anyways?

 

[BoilerUP]

I don't know...doing that at 100 kts feels a lot better than 170.

The Encore circles at 170kt?

 

[cmrflyer]

We can only hope it dries up the supply of new pilots.
If the demand for new plots returns, the only choice the airlines will have is to increase wages to attract people to waste their money to come into the profession.

 

[badlander45]

What are you doing, reading the RAA talking points?!?

The industry won't die, people and products still need to move and will. Some carriers may die, and if they do they probably needed to go anyhow.

Let's have a little math fun, shall we? [note, I haven't flown for a regional, so I'm trying to be pessimistic in my numbers, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong]

Let's say we're going to have to bump FO pay from $17K to $50K to attract applicants - that's a difference of $23K.

Assuming our FO flies 180 days in a year [sounds low to me], that works out to a pay increase of about $128 per day each day he works. Let's assume he averages 5 legs a day [again, I think that's low], that works out to about $26 per leg. Assume an 80% load factor (and I haven't been on a flight recently that was only 80% full) and that works out to roughly 65 cents per passenger per leg. If my numbers are indeed conservative, and the FO works more "revenue days" a year, averages more than 5 legs per day, or has a CRJ or ERJ with more than 40 passengers, the costs are further diluted, resulting in less expense per passenger.

Now, let's give the Captain a similar bump, now we're at $1.30 per pax. Go crazy and double that to account for other compensation expenses that I haven't included (taxes, 410K match, etc), and we have $2.60 per pax per leg. Now double it again just to be safe and account for reserves and anything else you care to throw in with the kitchen sink. That works out to $5.20 per passenger per leg, so assuming the average pax flies two legs, they are going to have to increase fares less than $21 for the round trip to cover the cost of increasing wages. Remembering that all regionals are going to be effected by this, I don't see a $21 R/T having that much of an effect. I'm sure there will be a few people who won't go to see Grandma for thanks giving, but on the whole it just isn't that big an increase - if a family of 5 was going to Disney, that's a $105 increase in their R/T. Given what such a trip costs in the first place, that's not much of an increase. I'm doubting the average business traveler will notice a $21 increase per leg trip, which works out to $1050 increase per year if he travels once a week.

I just don't see it affecting passenger traffic that much.

Most intelligent post of the entire thread.

 

[BoilerUP]

Most intelligent post of the entire thread.

...except for the fact it doesn't reflect the reality of where regional airlines make their revenue.

 

[cl604driver]

I think it is great. Experience is invaluable and u dont have that with 300 hrs. Sorry but you dont and the required sim dosent give u that either. I know the pay sucks and schedules are horrible but I am happy that this law has passed. Until know I have not ever ridden on a regional airline even if it meant a inconvience to me or my travels. Cant bring myself to ride on one with a possible 300 hrs f.o. in right seat. Been around long enough to know experience keeps you alive.

 

[BoilerUP]

I am happy that this law has passed.

It hasn't passed yet.

Until know I have not ever ridden on a regional airline even if it meant a inconvience to me or my travels. Cant bring myself to ride on one with a possible 300 hrs f.o. in right seat.

You evidently don't airline much to small or mid-sized cities all across our country, especially in the last 8 years.

Been around long enough to know experience keeps you alive.

Yes, because we all know high-time pilots are immune from doing things that bend metal and get people killed...especially those pilots who fly Challengers.