SWA plan for 15% ROIC

[waveflyer]

Haha- that just shows the quality of job PCL is used to- an RJ FO with 250 hours?
PCL- it's inexperienced enough when the example is a 1000 hour wonder

 

[SWA/FO]

Congratulations. You'll finally be just as skilled as a 21 year old RJ FO with 250 hours.

You guys realize that if Management doesn't allow us to do something, typically they get their way, as long as you want to continue to work and get paid.

That being said.... AirTran didn't invent the single engine taxi and this idea has been kicked around for 10-20 years. Southwest moves really slow.... get use to it.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Not sure where you are getting your numbers. For 2013, according to Tammy Romo (SWA CFO) and Gary Kelly (SWA CEO), Southwest/AirTran combined are getting 20 new B737-800s from Boeing, retiring 13 B737 classics, and sub leasing 16 B717s to Delta. According to my math, that is a net fleet reduction of 9 aircraft. Also, Kelly is advertising 2% ASMS growth to Wall Street for 2013.

I went back to my source and you numbers for this year are correct. That being said the real problem is that ASM growth will come without block hour or fleet growth. The 737 produces 22-50 percent more ASMs per block hour. This means they can replace the ASMs the 717s are producing with fewer airframes. Add in that WN pilots fly more block hours on average we will need even fewer pilots to staff the airplanes that are left. I believe that the company wants to get the contract done prior to 2015 so the side letter 8 protections are lost and they can rid themselves of the excess pilots. Why do you think they have been slow rolling the AAI transition training? I think it's because it is less expensive to leave the excess on the AAI side of the partition AND because they have no intention of training the 500+ AAI pilots that are the pig in the python.

 

[humveedriver]

I went back to my source and you numbers for this year are correct. That being said the real problem is that ASM growth will come without block hour or fleet growth. The 737 produces 22-50 percent more ASMs per block hour. This means they can replace the ASMs the 717s are producing with fewer airframes. Add in that WN pilots fly more block hours on average we will need even fewer pilots to staff the airplanes that are left. I believe that the company wants to get the contract done prior to 2015 so the side letter 8 protections are lost and they can rid themselves of the excess pilots. Why do you think they have been slow rolling the AAI transition training? I think it's because it is less expensive to leave the excess on the AAI side of the partition AND because they have no intention of training the 500+ AAI pilots that are the pig in the python.

Or. The necessary infrastructure isn't in place yet on the SWA side of the partition. That being;

1) International transferred to SWA side
2) HOU Int'l completed
3) DAL renovation completed/ wright ended.

Which means crap schedules for at least 24 months. Not buying the furlough yet. Unless furloughing for 18 months or so is the reward. SWA is going to blow right through the 1 JAN 2015 timeline without batting an eyelash. We will see a similar if not larger group of FA's that will need to transition as well. Max predicts that the transition will be done by spring 2015. That would work well with the summer flying sched. I'm thinking it might go as late as thanksgiving.

 

[scoreboardII]

H driver, dude, really, take a deep breath, there will be no furlough.

GK is an ass for doing this deal. But his sole point of advertisement that the fragile thing he calls LUV is still alive is the fact he can say he has not nor will furlough. If GK furloughs, his word is mud, which I understand from your position already is, as it is on our side, but a company wide perspective, he is living the code of LUV.

Now, world events or catastrophes aside, he has to keep his word or he has killed the carriers spirit, and the investors know it, and are hounding him every quarter. GK will not furlough unless overcome by events.

Now, one of those events, May be an arbitrators ruling against him on the ALPA claims, so be careful what you wish for. But I doubt those to be realized, and therefore, no furloughs, ever.

 

[humveedriver]

Score, I wasn't agreeing with Ghetto. I was merely illustrating the more tangible reasons why the transition is slow and why the 1 JAN 2015 timeline isn't going to work. Yep. I already know what your talking about, when you say be careful what you wish for. I almost wish the union had ignored any MOUs discovered after the fact, but they can't. They have to run everything to ground, to avoid DFR.

 

[scoreboardII]

Understand, take care.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Maybe I'm jaded from my last gig, and I hope that I'm wrong, BUT that being said Wall Street loves furloughs and I don't think they value or culture like we do. Our stock would probably go up if we furloughed. Most stocks do go up on news of cost cutting. Besides I think that most of GKs innner circle believes that the culture lives in the GO, inflight, and ground ops. They can keep all of those folks and furlough just pilots which will have little to no effect on the afforementioned groups but will serve as a warning to them. Best to be loved and feared but if you have to choose one be feared. Training 500 pilots that we don't need will cost millions and continue to drive up costs for a long time. Only 200ish WN pilots would have to be furloughed avoid training the 500 FL pig in the python pilots. I think they will try and hold these pilots hostage for the WN rigs and line guarantees. If the pilots don't give in the hatchet will fall and they can blame it on SWAPA.

 

[RLAblows]

So ghetto, you're thinking there could be 700 furloughed? 200 RSW and 500 FL.

 

[madjack]

This forum is talking furloughs...we are in sec 6...we should be pushing contract improvements...we r the enemy to ourselves...

 

[RLAblows]

This forum is talking furloughs...we are in sec 6...we should be pushing contract improvements...we r the enemy to ourselves...

I agree. The airline is way too profitable to speak of furloughs.

 

[scoreboardII]

GBJ, no furloughs, yes, this is like no other place.

GK will not furlough not just because he said so, but because it will cost him more in the long run, and not just training costs, in pilot slowdown costs and loss of goodwill.

Some may think he could keep his inner GO circle happy with furloughs, but the truth is that stake would hit the heart, the pilots, the guys who set the tone, and that would die, and so would any chance of making the numbers work.

Airlines who make profit for 40 some years don't furlough.



No furlough.

 

[waveflyer]

First score is right, there are a ton of pilots who don't set the tone already especially in PHX and in the AM - but most of us really do.
And that is not lost on GK-
This place runs on culture regardless of cynicism from an individual perspective- we should protect it every day going forward bc it's the best job security the industry has

GBJ- you're wearing glasses that skew your vision- get involved with the extracurricular stuff instead of FI, you'll be happier for it-

 

[jonjuan]

First score is right, there are a ton of pilots who don't set the tone already especially in PHX and in the AM -

The Kernals? Very accurate, Wave.

 

[Phlintstone]

I know the talk of furloughs had died down on this side, except for a few chicken littles and drama queens. There would have to be a major catastrophy.

The talk has mainly switched to folks leaving to go back to a previous employer (American) or just applying at another company. I just talked to a former SWA pilot who left for FedeX within the last year so it may be happening on the other side too.

Phred