SWA plan for 15% ROIC

[j41driver]

Here's some public math for ya....

What's the idle fuel burn per side? Say 700/hr? Fuel's what?...$3.50/gal?

700lb/hr / 60 min = 11.67lb/min /6.7lb/gal = 1.74 gal/min x $3.50/gal = $6.09/min

How many flight per day? 3200ish a good number? Lets say they only save 1 minute of fuel burn per flight.

3200 flts x 1 min x $6.09 = $19,488 per day...thats $7.1 million in annual fuel savings with just ONE less minute of fuel burn per flight. Of course it's not a trillion $$ but it's pretty significant.

Remember GK asking for ideas that save $5 per day??

 

[Crash Pad]

7.1 million. Lot of money, love to have it. I also think wasting 10 million on anything is stupid.

That said, shooting down AIP1 was worth 100 million annually. So when I hear my coworkers talking about SE taxi like its the holy grail of airline profits I find it comical. SWA lost 117 million in one quarter on a missed hedge.

Hey next we can take one Milano out of the two pack and save a couple bucks. Logo lights aren't required. SE taxi is the latte factor of airline finance.

 

[j41driver]

OK, it's not $100 million savings but when the CEO keeps talking about 15% ROIC and is asking employees to suggest ways to save $5 a day while we're still taxiing on both engines is just ridiculous.

 

[Just thinking]

Make it rain SWA!!!!!!!!!!!! 7.1 million easy money.

http://www.tmz.com/2012/06/25/daz-dillinger-make-it-rain-money-homeless-people/

 

[redflyer65]

Added together I'd say the year is looking pretty good for earnings.

1. Single Engine Taxi
2. Full -800's, and getting more every month
3. Evolve Interior conversion in full swing on the -700's
4. Codeshare turned on soon
5. Early boarding option that has already made over 500k in a few weeks

The only variable is really just fuel. And if it remains fairly stable, 15% should be obtained this year. I see the stock easily pushing past $15/share with all of the above.

 

[scoreboardII]

OK, it's not $100 million savings but when the CEO keeps talking about 15% ROIC and is asking employees to suggest ways to save $5 a day while we're still taxiing on both engines is just ridiculous.

You realize in sixty days we'll be single engine taxi?

 

[j41driver]

You realize in sixty days we'll be single engine taxi?

Yep. Still trying to wrap my head around why it's taking so. damn. long.

 

[waveflyer]

Hey next we can take one Milano out of the two pack and save a couple bucks. Logo lights aren't required. SE taxi is the latte factor of airline finance.

Wait, you have milano's

 

[Phlintstone]

Yep! Just had a two pack this afternoon on a deadhead.

Phred

 

[Jim]

I say it won't be $7.1 million but something less. If SWA single engine taxis they will either have to slow down (and we all know this is not going to happen....) or burn more gas in the one engine to maintain their current high speeds. Either would make the savings less.....

 

[waveflyer]

Oh man-
I had some yellow painted Oreos- not the same- lets keep that

 

[scoreboardII]

Yep. Still trying to wrap my head around why it's taking so. damn. long.

Well. Who. Knows?

 

[PCL_128]

You realize in sixty days we'll be single engine taxi?

Congratulations. You'll finally be just as skilled as a 21 year old RJ FO with 250 hours.

 

[Remington]

Oh man-
I had some yellow painted Oreos- not the same- lets keep that

How do you know that the black ones aren't the painted ones?

 

[HowardBorden]

Congratulations. You'll finally be just as skilled as a 21 year old RJ FO with 250 hours.

You mean like a 250 hour Gulfstream Academy graduate?

 

[waveflyer]

Haha- that just shows the quality of job PCL is used to- an RJ FO with 250 hours?
PCL- it's inexperienced enough when the example is a 1000 hour wonder

 

[SWA/FO]

Congratulations. You'll finally be just as skilled as a 21 year old RJ FO with 250 hours.

You guys realize that if Management doesn't allow us to do something, typically they get their way, as long as you want to continue to work and get paid.

That being said.... AirTran didn't invent the single engine taxi and this idea has been kicked around for 10-20 years. Southwest moves really slow.... get use to it.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Not sure where you are getting your numbers. For 2013, according to Tammy Romo (SWA CFO) and Gary Kelly (SWA CEO), Southwest/AirTran combined are getting 20 new B737-800s from Boeing, retiring 13 B737 classics, and sub leasing 16 B717s to Delta. According to my math, that is a net fleet reduction of 9 aircraft. Also, Kelly is advertising 2% ASMS growth to Wall Street for 2013.

I went back to my source and you numbers for this year are correct. That being said the real problem is that ASM growth will come without block hour or fleet growth. The 737 produces 22-50 percent more ASMs per block hour. This means they can replace the ASMs the 717s are producing with fewer airframes. Add in that WN pilots fly more block hours on average we will need even fewer pilots to staff the airplanes that are left. I believe that the company wants to get the contract done prior to 2015 so the side letter 8 protections are lost and they can rid themselves of the excess pilots. Why do you think they have been slow rolling the AAI transition training? I think it's because it is less expensive to leave the excess on the AAI side of the partition AND because they have no intention of training the 500+ AAI pilots that are the pig in the python.

 

[humveedriver]

I went back to my source and you numbers for this year are correct. That being said the real problem is that ASM growth will come without block hour or fleet growth. The 737 produces 22-50 percent more ASMs per block hour. This means they can replace the ASMs the 717s are producing with fewer airframes. Add in that WN pilots fly more block hours on average we will need even fewer pilots to staff the airplanes that are left. I believe that the company wants to get the contract done prior to 2015 so the side letter 8 protections are lost and they can rid themselves of the excess pilots. Why do you think they have been slow rolling the AAI transition training? I think it's because it is less expensive to leave the excess on the AAI side of the partition AND because they have no intention of training the 500+ AAI pilots that are the pig in the python.

Or. The necessary infrastructure isn't in place yet on the SWA side of the partition. That being;

1) International transferred to SWA side
2) HOU Int'l completed
3) DAL renovation completed/ wright ended.

Which means crap schedules for at least 24 months. Not buying the furlough yet. Unless furloughing for 18 months or so is the reward. SWA is going to blow right through the 1 JAN 2015 timeline without batting an eyelash. We will see a similar if not larger group of FA's that will need to transition as well. Max predicts that the transition will be done by spring 2015. That would work well with the summer flying sched. I'm thinking it might go as late as thanksgiving.

 

[scoreboardII]

H driver, dude, really, take a deep breath, there will be no furlough.

GK is an ass for doing this deal. But his sole point of advertisement that the fragile thing he calls LUV is still alive is the fact he can say he has not nor will furlough. If GK furloughs, his word is mud, which I understand from your position already is, as it is on our side, but a company wide perspective, he is living the code of LUV.

Now, world events or catastrophes aside, he has to keep his word or he has killed the carriers spirit, and the investors know it, and are hounding him every quarter. GK will not furlough unless overcome by events.

Now, one of those events, May be an arbitrators ruling against him on the ALPA claims, so be careful what you wish for. But I doubt those to be realized, and therefore, no furloughs, ever.