SWA plan for 15% ROIC

[Phlintstone]

Do you have something to add or are you just so hopped up on koolaid that you think you are a character in caddy shack?

Phred

 

[Dan Roman]

Do you have something to add or are you just so hopped up on koolaid that you think you are a character in caddy shack?

Phred

At least he's got that going for him....which is nice

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Guys this is more than a gut feeling. The plan as of today is that 88 717s will be going away to DL offset by 86 Boeing deliveries in 2013 and 2014. The issue is really the retirement of the classics that there are no deliveries to offset. By the end of 2015 the classic fleet will be around 100 down from 168 today. The only will be offset whatever deliveries will be received in 2015. Also according to one of my sources there will be a further offest by fewer airplanes in MX as Evolve, WiFi installations, and AirTran conversions come to an end. The company may offset this further or even completely with additional aircraft acquired off the secondary leasing market but isn't committed to doing so.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

As a matter of fact the fleet reduction has already started. According to the December SWAPA RP the WN side of the partition will be be 10 airframes smaller this year which doesn't include the loss of the 717s on the AAI side. The ASMs have already been reduced on the AAI side to accomodate the fleet reduction which is why half of the 1700 AAI pilots are on reserve.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Phred by 2015 when the furloughs start all AAI pilots will be SWAPA members which means there will be no doubt of the furlough order. It will be

1. 180 pilots hired after the deal was done whose names don't appear on the ISL 130 are on the WN side 50 on the AAI side.

2. 76 WN pilots

3. 50 FL pilots

4. 159 WN pilots

5. 449 FL pilots

If there are millions in costs savings to be realized by not training pilots we don't need management won't hesitate to "right size" our pilot work force.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Don't take my word for it talk to your reps either ALPA or SWAPA or chief pilot. Right now there are not enough airframes or ASMS to support the current compliment of pilots. Both FL and WN are overstaffed already. Add into this that Lear claims that CM told AAI ALPA that even with a flat fleet when the transition was complete we would be 400 pilots overstaffed including retirements just due to productivity differences. I'm not trying to scare anyone but if you are junior at either airline you will be affected by this mess. Knowing it now might help you prepare and save you grief later

 

[madjack]

I believe all furloughs will be FAT until one year after full integration... AAI gave up one- for-one protection btw SL9 and SL10...blame ur MEC and the blowhards on this forum...

 

[humveedriver]

Don't take my word for it talk to your reps either ALPA or SWAPA or chief pilot. Right now there are not enough airframes or ASMS to support the current compliment of pilots. Both FL and WN are overstaffed already. Add into this that Lear claims that CM told AAI ALPA that even with a flat fleet when the transition was complete we would be 400 pilots overstaffed including retirements just due to productivity differences. I'm not trying to scare anyone but if you are junior at either airline you will be affected by this mess. Knowing it now might help you prepare and save you grief later

I'm not doubting your math. And I'm hearing similar reports from folks I know at SWA about the staffing. I look at it this way. Either you are exactly right. Or we just don't have all the information. I just can't get on board that SWA would buy an airline, hire new employees and then plan on furloughing them in less than 4 years. I can't see how that fits in with the rest of their return to 15% ROIC plan? I mean its always a possibility. If you are in the bottom 10 percent of any airline, you should not feel comfortable, I don't care which airline it is. I just don't think they are sharing all the strategic information. It certainly doesn't hurt their cause with section 6 negotiations to manipulate the integration in such a way, as to cast doubt on certain folks futures, without it actually damaging the stock price.

 

[Phlintstone]

I believe all furloughs will be FAT until one year after full integration...

I'd be interested to see where that is written. Do you have a source? I've read through all the furlough info I can find and nothing mentions that specification.

Phred

 

[Phlintstone]

Nevermind, I found it. Well doesn't that just suck the big one...

It is in side letter 8

Section 6
Transition Job Security Protections
6-A. Furlough.
(i) In accordance with Section 1.C.1. of the SWAPA CBA, no pilot on the SWAPA
Master Seniority list will be furloughed prior to Complete Operational Merger.

(ii) Unless prohibitive conditions beyond the control of Southwest occur, to include
extreme economic conditions, no Southwest Pilot will be placed on furlough
during the first year following Complete Operational Merger.

(iii) Southwest shall immediately notify SWAPA if any such furlough is anticipated,
and shall promptly meet with SWAPA upon request to discuss and consider​

alternatives that might avoid or mitigate the effects of a furlough.



Phred