Perspectives on an AirTran and SWA merger

[Ty Webb]

You guys are arguing over something that isn't happening .. . nothing but a bunch of mental masturbation :laugh:

 

[beagle pilot]

I bet against it ever happening unless Airtran switched to an all 737 fleet first and even then it'd be unlikely.

 

[Bake]

I just got off the phone with "the" CEO a few minutes ago. There is no SWA/Airtran merger in the works now or in the next ten years at least, he said.. Airtran, will not be bought or sold until Delta folds Atlanta. I equated that with hell freezing over, but weirder things have been know to happen. After all pigs can fly.

 

[dicko]

LOL! Thanks! I'm guessing you are new and at the bottom of the list. Man, I can't wait to go back to LBB and ELP! Have fun raising the gear for me tough guy!

Actually, 'comet boy' is not an airline pilot (by his own admission).

 

[chase]

To the AirTran pilots who replied,

Thanks for your perspective. In a perfect world, keeping our own brands is preferred for both airlines. I don't know if it would be a good fit or not for the two to merge, some of the points are well stated as to why a merger should not from the perspective of AirTran....some of those same reasons would apply from a SWA pilot's perspective also.

Some could argue, with some degree of justification, that AirTran has the greater "growth" potential simply based upon size as compared to SWA. From the perspective from someone who is very junior, any merger with an airline with older average pilots, that upward mobility could be stifled.

Age 60 will only increase retirements at SWA by 120-150 for the nearterm once 2013 rolls around so without growth at SWA, longer upgrades will be the norm. However, the ability to connect many of the 68 (soon to be 69 with Panama City) cities to ATL in which AT doesn't have city pairings on, an argument could be made that a new growth spurt could occur thereby making way for more growth opportunities.

SWAPA has been told we are overmanned, the precise numbers float between 200-350 depending on the time of the year....growth would solve that obviously, whether that comes from new city pairings or frequencies. In the last year, SWA's market share of domestic capacity has grown by nearly 12.98% to 13.85%, AT's has increased only slightly 3.33% to 3.4% but the important thing it has increased...the other major carriers have all seen a decrease so clearly the LCC like AT and SWA have synergies in terms of showing increased market share as significant.

GK has stated that each 1% of passenger revenue miles increases SWA's bottom line by $800m. SWA is still working off the hedge fiasco of last year and the previous year. AT's current CASM is lower than SWA's....some efficiencies would be gained from combining but again at what costs to the morale and expectations. Would Wall Street see a combining of two successful LCC as a plus or minus; capacity coming out of the marketplace isn't the intended goal longterm as any short-term capacity cuts could result in furloughs...no one wants that. Lots of interesting variables at play.

As some have said, it isn't always about $$$ and despite an increase from $153 to $204 for a 12 yr CA and an increase from $74 to $144 for a 12 yr FO, I can fully understand why some at AirTran would still choose keeping the status quo, known expectations vs. unknown (even though in this business some would argue there are only unknown vs. known expectations) and not supporting a merger. Change is difficult and mergers are full of changes to those involved.

The divergence of the topic to speaking about F9 and SWA is unfortunate as it doesn't pertain to the title of the topic but most understand what the purpose of the thread is all about. As someone earlier said, that is all history and how SWAPA and SWA would deal with AT and their employees would be very different I believe....two very different circumstances.

Thanks to those who have replied on theme, it makes for interesting reading and while I realize it is a small sample, it has helped me understand a little better what some of the concerns from the AT standpoint are.....if others from AT wish to continue the "education", please feel free to do so.

 

[DonVerita]

You are correct. Nobody there wants your group or any other group. They want to grow on their own. You need them not the other way around. You need to accept the fact that you are a large regional with 1500 pilots. You will do very well with Republic. Get use to it.

And how many pilots do you have furloughed at that Fractional you work at...NetJets, Rajflyboy? 500 is it?

Go look at what the DOT definition of a Major is; then you can accept the fact that you'll never be part of one.

Next time try to at least get the pilot count right in your clueless posts. With the new hire classes, the total count is more like 1700.

 

[General Lee]

I honestly think this is hillarious. If it were up to me, I would allow SWA into ATL via Airtran JUST TO SEE AIRTRAN PILOTS INTERMINGLE ON THE SWA PILOT SENIORITY LIST. That would make SWA pilots BOIL. They would go crazy. They think everyone who would love to be a part of that airline SHOULD BE STAPLED. Gary Kelly made them think that it would be UP TO THEM, thinking he would need SWA pilot input. That is not how it works in the M&A business normally. (unless you have something in your contract, like CAL pilots do) It is NICE to allow input from employees, but normally that doesn't happen. The SWA pilots don't think the Airtran guys are good enough, and all they want are the planes and gates. Thanks to the Bond ammendment (?), no more stapling. You can do it if everyone agrees, but the Airtran pilots won't do that. The Frontier guys almost did, but their airline at the time was in BK and not doing well at all. Airtran is doing ok, and the pilots there would want a fair shake at a SLI. That just CAN'T BE according to SWA pilots IMO. It sure would be fun to watch, especially since my friend Ty Webb would be the new ATL Chief Pilot for SWA if it happened. Only bad thing for Airtran guys---they might have to fly to West Texas, and even, gasp, LBB. Have fun guys! Love ya.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[dicko]

To the AirTran pilots who replied,

Thanks for your perspective. In a perfect world, keeping our own brands is preferred for both airlines. I don't know if it would be a good fit or not for the two to merge, some of the points are well stated as to why a merger should not from the perspective of AirTran....some of those same reasons would apply from a SWA pilot's perspective also.

Some could argue, with some degree of justification, that AirTran has the greater "growth" potential simply based upon size as compared to SWA. From the perspective from someone who is very junior, any merger with an airline with older average pilots, that upward mobility could be stifled.

Age 60 will only increase retirements at SWA by 120-150 for the nearterm once 2013 rolls around so without growth at SWA, longer upgrades will be the norm. However, the ability to connect many of the 68 (soon to be 69 with Panama City) cities to ATL in which AT doesn't have city pairings on, an argument could be made that a new growth spurt could occur thereby making way for more growth opportunities.

SWAPA has been told we are overmanned, the precise numbers float between 200-350 depending on the time of the year....growth would solve that obviously, whether that comes from new city pairings or frequencies. In the last year, SWA's market share of domestic capacity has grown by nearly 12.98% to 13.85%, AT's has increased only slightly 3.33% to 3.4% but the important thing it has increased...the other major carriers have all seen a decrease so clearly the LCC like AT and SWA have synergies in terms of showing increased market share as significant.

GK has stated that each 1% of passenger revenue miles increases SWA's bottom line by $800m. SWA is still working off the hedge fiasco of last year and the previous year. AT's current CASM is lower than SWA's....some efficiencies would be gained from combining but again at what costs to the morale and expectations. Would Wall Street see a combining of two successful LCC as a plus or minus; capacity coming out of the marketplace isn't the intended goal longterm as any short-term capacity cuts could result in furloughs...no one wants that. Lots of interesting variables at play.

As some have said, it isn't always about $$$ and despite an increase from $153 to $204 for a 12 yr CA and an increase from $74 to $144 for a 12 yr FO, I can fully understand why some at AirTran would still choose keeping the status quo, known expectations vs. unknown (even though in this business some would argue there are only unknown vs. known expectations) and not supporting a merger. Change is difficult and mergers are full of changes to those involved.

The divergence of the topic to speaking about F9 and SWA is unfortunate as it doesn't pertain to the title of the topic but most understand what the purpose of the thread is all about. As someone earlier said, that is all history and how SWAPA and SWA would deal with AT and their employees would be very different I believe....two very different circumstances.

Thanks to those who have replied on theme, it makes for interesting reading and while I realize it is a small sample, it has helped me understand a little better what some of the concerns from the AT standpoint are.....if others from AT wish to continue the "education", please feel free to do so.

Hey Man,

I hope you don't think that even 2 % of the replies on this thread actually represent the attitude of AirTran pilots.

I don't want to single anyone out but ... 'Karma police' was probably told to pound sand by a SWA interview board. If he understood the meaning of 'Karma' he'd be curled up in a corner with a tin foil hat on.

I'm surprised PCL hasn't shown up yet. He despises SWAPA for purely ALPA reasons. Unfortunately he has some pull. Fortunately he is probably busy smearing rogaine on his upper lip to accelerate the beginning of his bushy 'Prater-stache'

It will never happen. Fonaro is an ex US Air idiot. He brought his buddies with him. However; if it does ever happen you'd be better of firing every mouth breather except the pilots and mechanics and allow a fair intergration of two great employee groups.

 

[ATLplt]

Chase...very well written post. You seem very level headed and in touch with what's going on. The payrates you list are in fact current (except for the fact that a 12 yr FO tops out at a whopping $79 an hour). Those rates though will soon be replaced with a more "modern" scale unless a complete break down at the negotiating table occurs. Top Capt rates will rise to the $180-190 range and the FO scale will likely top $115-120+. If not, I believe you'll see 140+ aircraft parked indefinitely around our system. A $10-30 an hour raise with your company is not worth losing a faster upgrade, my relative seniority, or my beloved 717. My opinion...take it with a grain of salt.

I do, however, feel that both groups truly respect one another and would work together to achieve common ground should an unlikely merger take place.

 

[dicko]

Chase...very well written post. You seem very level headed and in touch with what's going on. The payrates you list are in fact current (except for the fact that a 12 yr FO tops out at a whopping $79 an hour). Those rates though will soon be replaced with a more "modern" scale unless a complete break down at the negotiating table occurs. Top Capt rates will rise to the $180-190 range and the FO scale will likely top $115-120+. If not, I believe you'll see 140+ aircraft parked indefinitely around our system. A $10-30 an hour raise with your company is not worth losing a faster upgrade, my relative seniority, or my beloved 717. My opinion...take it with a grain of salt.

I do, however, feel that both groups truly respect one another and would work together to achieve common ground should an unlikely merger take place.

Reality at last.