AP
Earnings Preview: Delta Air Lines
Monday October 13, 4:26 pm ET
By Harry R. Weber, AP Business Writer
Delta Air Lines' third-quarter earnings seen in range of modest loss to small profit
ATLANTA (AP) -- Delta Air Lines Inc. reports third-quarter earnings on Wednesday. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.OVERVIEW: The Atlanta-based carrier, which would become the world's largest airline if it completes its acquisition of Eagan, Minn.-based Northwest Airlines Corp., could eke out a small adjusted profit for the three-month period, which ended Sept. 30, based on analysts' projections.
Delta's president and chief financial officer, Ed Bastian, said Sept. 18 that Delta expected its third-quarter results to be in the range of break-even to a modest loss.
The airline industry has been beset for an extended period by hefty fuel prices. While the price of a barrel of oil has dropped off considerably since its record high close of $147.27 on July 11, Delta and other airlines have continued to cut domestic capacity, raise fares and boost revenue through new and higher fees imposed on passengers.
Delta has said it expects to end the fourth quarter with $3.1 billion in liquidity, including a fully drawn $1 billion credit line.
Bastian said last month that Delta did not expect to take a hit from fuel hedging in the third quarter like that forecast by United Airlines. At the same time, Bastian said that with respect to fuel hedges currently in place Delta in the near term would not be able to take advantage of the recent significant drop in the market price for fuel.
Bastian said that Delta projected passenger revenue per available seat mile -- a standard industry measure -- to be up 9 percent to 10 percent in the third quarter.
BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, expected Delta to post a profit of 2 cents per share in the third quarter. Analysts' projections generally exclude one-time items. Wall Street forecast Delta will post revenue of $5.67 billion for the July-September period. In the third quarter last year, Delta reported net income of 56 cents a share on revenue of $5.23 billion.
ANALYST TAKE: Several analysts believe Delta will be able to weather high fuel costs and the economic downturn better than some of its competitors because of aggressive cuts in domestic capacity and non-fuel expenses. Credit Suisse analyst Daniel McKenzie said in a research note Monday that his firm does not rule out the possibility of further merger and acquisition activity for Delta in the future. He said Seattle-based Alaska Air Group Inc. or New York-based JetBlue Airways Corp. "remain appealing targets, both with attractive assets and strategic positioning that would enable DAL/NWA to better compete with what we consider is an inevitable CAL/UAUA combination sometime down the road." Houston-based Continental Airlines Inc. and Chicago-based UAL Corp., parent of United Airlines, were said to have had discussions earlier this year, but they never announced a combination. Continental later said it would join a marketing alliance made up of several carriers, including United.
WHAT'S AHEAD: Delta has already received shareholder approval of its plan to acquire Northwest. The deal, which Delta hopes to close by the end of the year, is still subject to Justice Department approval. Also, Delta faces a Nov. 5 trial in federal court in San Francisco in a lawsuit filed by a group of passengers who are trying to block the acquisition.
STOCK PERFORMANCE: Delta's stock rose more than 34 percent during the third quarter, from a close of $5.53 on July 1 to a close of $7.45 on Sept. 30. Since then, however, the stock has dropped more than 8 percent. It closed at $6.80 on Monday
I have been predicting the former for two years. One they left out was Hawaiian.
