NJ Recalls

[jegermeister]

Everyone has to pay their dues...nobody likes it...but necessary....

I've got no problem with paying my dues. A couple thousand hours at the regionals, 135, or military make sense. That's not where we're at. We have a generation of 10,000+ hour captains that have been stuck in a broken system. If it were just a matter of waiting for your place in line, I'd just keep waiting. Now that the "Dream job" seems to be in reach, it has little to do with your place in line or the amount of dues that you've paid. I'd gladly trade a few years/type ratings/few thousand hours for a well placed name in a HR department.

 

[tomgoodman]

... 50 years in this business, military, 4 121 airlines, 2-135, 1 part 91 Corp and a part 125 fly by night, paid all the due you can name, but never made the "Show" ...
All that being said I have had a ball ....

Then you would probably have enjoyed the "Show" as well. A few did not, even with the the higher pay, and it usually turns out that they didn't like their earlier flying jobs either.

 

[727C47]

JUS must really suck. To come back to the bottom of a list that you were at 5-10 years ago is far from career progression.

good people, good flying,fun jet, the on call thing is what it is,but they never lie to you. i was there briefly.

 

[G4dude]

So you want a pay cut. Nice.

Actually, I would like to make a lot more money. But I don't think my company can compete if our pay goes any higher. If it can't compete, I lose my job. Therefore I don't want a raise, because it might cost me my job. I don't understand, with all due respect, why this is so hard to figure out.
Let's try this hypothetical: We do a new contract, and NetJets captains make 350000, all FOs make 200000. Would that be good for NJA pilots? of course not, because we would all lose our jobs as the competition would take our market share by providing the same service with pilots making less than half, creating a management fee significantly lower than ours. Don't you agree?

 

[G4dude]

I've got no problem with paying my dues. A couple thousand hours at the regionals, 135, or military make sense. That's not where we're at. We have a generation of 10,000+ hour captains that have been stuck in a broken system. If it were just a matter of waiting for your place in line, I'd just keep waiting. Now that the "Dream job" seems to be in reach, it has little to do with your place in line or the amount of dues that you've paid. I'd gladly trade a few years/type ratings/few thousand hours for a well placed name in a HR department.

I think the only reason the system seems to be broken is that we have a sluggish, long term diseased world economy, due to massive government debt, increasing taxation and more restrictive business regulation.

 

[imacdog]

G you have a sad understanding of how bargaining works. If no one ever bargained for an industry-leading contract, then we'd all be making 35K. I don't want to make 35K; I want to make a real living. What happened the last two times NetJets pilots got raises? Everyone else did too. We as pilots need to be our own advocates, otherwise we'll enjoy a life of mediocrity.

 

[Blueridgeflyer]

Actually, I would like to make a lot more money. But I don't think my company can compete if our pay goes any higher. If it can't compete, I lose my job. Therefore I don't want a raise, because it might cost me my job. I don't understand, with all due respect, why this is so hard to figure out.
Let's try this hypothetical: We do a new contract, and NetJets captains make 350000, all FOs make 200000. Would that be good for NJA pilots? of course not, because we would all lose our jobs as the competition would take our market share by providing the same service with pilots making less than half, creating a management fee significantly lower than ours. Don't you agree?

The company has managed record profits during a period of contraction. The worm will turn G, and I am of the opinion that NJA will be wildly successful in terms of returns to BRK within a relatively short period. As a free marketeer myself, I believe the company has an obligation to invest it its employees when financial possible (which they clearly are). But they aren't going to provide it out if the goodness of their hearts. That's where we as pilots need to make our case. I don't want this place to become a stepping stone again.

 

[Blueridgeflyer]

Back on topic. We were recently provided a copy of the letter from NJASAP to the furloughed brethren. As I read the musings of our newly elected president, a disconnect presided over his assessment and that of my own. I again don't see how recalls will be stalled beyond 2015 given what we are seeing in terms of flight activities, prospective training into new fleets and members electing to jettison from NJA altogether for Legacy careers. But I was happy to see him serve a dose of what the EMT is now saying on the matter. I still find it rather peculiar that in the span of 1 recurrent cycle, the projection for recalls were modified by 3 years (2014 to 2017). Something just doesn't jibe.

 

[BentOver]

Back on topic. We were recently provided a copy of the letter from NJASAP to the furloughed brethren. As I read the musings of our newly elected president, a disconnect presided over his assessment and that of my own. I again don't see how recalls will be stalled beyond 2015 given what we are seeing in terms of flight activities, prospective training into new fleets and members electing to jettison from NJA altogether for Legacy careers. But I was happy to see him serve a dose of what the EMT is now saying on the matter. I still find it rather peculiar that in the span of 1 recurrent cycle, the projection for recalls were modified by 3 years (2014 to 2017). Something just doesn't jibe.

I've since taken my ball and went home... But that actual timeline looked more like this..

1) We were all sent letters from Christiansted (if that was his name, its been awhile).. We were assessed estimated recall dates.. The first starting in mid 2012 and the last furloughee ending sometime in 2014..

2) Shortly into the furlough we received "word" from either line guys willing to share, the EMT or flightinfo...that the START of recalls would be sometime at the beginning of 2013.

3) Later on we received word that recalls would start in 2014. And everyone would have an opportunity to come back by 2016 at the latest.

4) I may have missed a few steps, but it seems now recalls are estimated to be around 2017 (if thats the start of recalls, the bottom guys have a long long wait ahead of them!)

SO as you can see, it wasn't an Oh MY God what happened scenario.. These expected recall dates have been getting pushed back every year....

I used to be an eternal optimist..... Collected all the A/C data off FAA.gov, scoured over the a/c orders, watched flightaware, kept track of all the business updates, and kept a keen eye on year over year increases. I'd even compare "week #13 2010, vs week #13 2011/2012" for example..

To say I knew nearly all aspects of what was going on was an understatement..(as much as possible sitting on the sidelines)... I was certain with the increase in flying, and the economy brightening, that a recall would happen before the 5 year furlough mark...

I since took another job, took a hard look at what I thought was a certainty, and decided to resign. It became an easy decision.. Here's why....

NJA will staff for the a/c they have on property..point blank.. In 2007 when it was crazy busy, NJA had 3100+ pilots for 500 a/c...Just a little over 6 pilots per a/c... NJA is down to 394 a/c (roughly) and no where near the business of 2007... NJA could easily go up to 430-450 a/c, staff at slightly less per a/c and avoid recalling for as long as possible...

To get to even 430-450 a/c, NJA must not only take robust deliveries.. (How many have they taken so far in the months since new a/c started showing up?), but somehow manage NOT to lose 10+ year old a/c... And here in lies another dilema... How do you grow a company by selling the customers 10 year old used pieces of crap? (exaggeration on the crap part)

NJA management has several motives IMO...

1) Keep hope that and upgrade may happen for senior SIC's.. Trying to retain as many as possible..

2)Give the appearance of a growing company.. Profits may be record setting, but the Pres and CEO also would like the "appearance" of a growing company in the future. Not one shrinking to profitability.

3) Make it look like they have a clue what the future holds, even though every AIN report clearly shows fractional flying is continuously the hardest hit sector of the industry when it comes to flight hours.

I think 2017 is an easily attainable estimate, and not in a good way.

The one caveate we probably can all agree with is ATTRITION.. Not the greatest way to be recalled but still a possibility.. However, there are MANY RJ PIC's flying 121 who have alot of connections. Many SIC's at NJA never did get that upgrade or have never flown 121. It is still an uphill battle to go from corporate/small jet flying to a Major when pared against 121 guys flying the same routes as their interviewers..... I don't think the attrition will be that dramatic at NJA.. Noticeable, but not dramatic..:beer:

 

[G4dude]

Back on topic. We were recently provided a copy of the letter from NJASAP to the furloughed brethren. As I read the musings of our newly elected president, a disconnect presided over his assessment and that of my own. I again don't see how recalls will be stalled beyond 2015 given what we are seeing in terms of flight activities, prospective training into new fleets and members electing to jettison from NJA altogether for Legacy careers. But I was happy to see him serve a dose of what the EMT is now saying on the matter. I still find it rather peculiar that in the span of 1 recurrent cycle, the projection for recalls were modified by 3 years (2014 to 2017). Something just doesn't jibe.

The reason for the delayed recalls is the 2012 Presidential election. Now, we are assured of sluggish growth at best (which is happening right now) followed by another deep worldwide recession (which will probably happen soon). This scenario has resulted in renewed pessimism in Columbus, for good reason. The voters have spoken, and we will reap the whirlwind, adding 1 trillion plus to the national debt yearly until the bond market collapses and inflation rears it's ugly head. Bummer. None of this is NJA's fault. Who would have thought President Obama would be reelected?