NJ Recalls

[Blueridgeflyer]

The reason for the delayed recalls is the 2012 Presidential election. Now, we are assured of sluggish growth at best (which is happening right now) followed by another deep worldwide recession (which will probably happen soon). This scenario has resulted in renewed pessimism in Columbus, for good reason. The voters have spoken, and we will reap the whirlwind, adding 1 trillion plus to the national debt yearly until the bond market collapses and inflation rears it's ugly head. Bummer. None of this is NJA's fault. Who would have thought President Obama would be reelected?

Look BHO getting re-elected was personally dispiriting. I think the EMT is looking at all possible avenues to assign blame as they attempt to re-negotiate our services at the lowest possible cost.

 

[OHGOON]

The reason for the delayed recalls is the 2012 Presidential election. Now, we are assured of sluggish growth at best (which is happening right now) followed by another deep worldwide recession (which will probably happen soon). This scenario has resulted in renewed pessimism in Columbus, for good reason. The voters have spoken, and we will reap the whirlwind, adding 1 trillion plus to the national debt yearly until the bond market collapses and inflation rears it's ugly head. Bummer. None of this is NJA's fault. Who would have thought President Obama would be reelected?

The fact that frac flying as a whole in the run up to the 08 crash was ridiculously over extended with growth customers who really couldn't afford it in the first place was and is not the problem...?

Nah, of course not! It's all because of that non white guy in the Presidency that has made Columbus loose heart again. Well (insert Reaganesque head bobble here...), looks like we will have to suffer through another world wide crisis brought on by one, all powerful, Kenyan Communist, Muslim, Terrorist, Traitor...666?..

In the meantime... in order to cushion the blow... we should volunteer our services to company altogether as you so wisely keep suggesting, it surely will help counteract some of that post election Columbus malaise that has set in... poor things. This ray of hope and sunshine will of course allow for an immediate infusion of much needed "performance bonuses" all around thereby insuring the retention of current egomaniac gasbag...ahh managerial talent. Inevitably this will result in long term growth and stability until the next election cycle comes around to save us from tyranny.

Secondly, in these dark and stormy times, we must tighten our belts even further to assure our poor and overtaxed job creators get to their yachts and or ski vacations on time...It all depends on us, we are the lynchpin that must now step up to help cushion the economically insurmountable blow of having lost the election...again!

 

[OPECJet]

Originally Posted by Blueridgeflyer

Back on topic. We were recently provided a copy of the letter from NJASAP to the furloughed brethren. As I read the musings of our newly elected president, a disconnect presided over his assessment and that of my own. I again don't see how recalls will be stalled beyond 2015 given what we are seeing in terms of flight activities, prospective training into new fleets and members electing to jettison from NJA altogether for Legacy careers. But I was happy to see him serve a dose of what the EMT is now saying on the matter. I still find it rather peculiar that in the span of 1 recurrent cycle, the projection for recalls were modified by 3 years (2014 to 2017). Something just doesn't jibe.

The reason for the delayed recalls is the 2012 Presidential election. Now, we are assured of sluggish growth at best (which is happening right now) followed by another deep worldwide recession (which will probably happen soon). This scenario has resulted in renewed pessimism in Columbus, for good reason. The voters have spoken, and we will reap the whirlwind, adding 1 trillion plus to the national debt yearly until the bond market collapses and inflation rears it's ugly head. Bummer. None of this is NJA's fault. Who would have thought President Obama would be reelected?

Flight Options is reported to be growing at the moment. Former owners are chartering aircraft. Current owners are flying less. That has nothing to do with Obama. It has everything to do with a product priced too high, management too inept to see it, and a sales / marketing dept that should go back to school. Obama is the enemy when it comes to our business, but NJA appears to be its own worst enemy.

We've had furloughed guys in their current jobs attempt to pitch NJA to their employers with no return calls from NJA. Potentially lost sales...

 

[gutshotdraw]

We've had furloughed guys in their current jobs attempt to pitch NJA to their employers with no return calls from NJA. Potentially lost sales...

Really? You know furloughed guys flying corporate that are ACTIVELY trying to lose their new job? If I were a furloughed guy, there is no way in HELL I would pitch the boss on NJA. For LOTS of reasons.

I agree there are plenty of lost sales opportunities at NJA due to a host of factors previously mentioned including sales team incompetence, poor word of mouth and so on. But everything happens in small increments and then magnifies as it expands across the demographic. Even rich people have become price sensitive to varying degrees, and I believe current political and economic realities contribute to that sensitivity.

One rich guy cuts back just a little on his hours flown. Another rich guy trades his share in a Gulfstream for a share in a Hawker. The next rich guy decides to fly XO for his VNY-TEB flight instead of burning his NJ hours. Next thing you know, you're down 40 airframes, your garbage can is knocked over, and your daughter is pregnant (classical reference).

This economy will continue to bounce and bump along the bottom with occasional peaks and lots of valleys and so will our business model. I don't buy the notion of a slow, steady, groundswell of economic improvement. Just don't see it. Sadly, I think this is the new normal and will last long past the Dear Leader's not-so-fond-farewell.

 

[OPECJet]

Really? You know furloughed guys flying corporate that are ACTIVELY trying to lose their new job? If I were a furloughed guy, there is no way in HELL I would pitch the boss on NJA. For LOTS of reasons.

I agree there are plenty of lost sales opportunities at NJA due to a host of factors previously mentioned including sales team incompetence, poor word of mouth and so on. But everything happens in small increments and then magnifies as it expands across the demographic. Even rich people have become price sensitive to varying degrees, and I believe current political and economic realities contribute to that sensitivity.

One rich guy cuts back just a little on his hours flown. Another rich guy trades his share in a Gulfstream for a share in a Hawker. The next rich guy decides to fly XO for his VNY-TEB flight instead of burning his NJ hours. Next thing you know, you're down 40 airframes, your garbage can is knocked over, and your daughter is pregnant (classical reference).

This economy will continue to bounce and bump along the bottom with occasional peaks and lots of valleys and so will our business model. I don't buy the notion of a slow, steady, groundswell of economic improvement. Just don't see it. Sadly, I think this is the new normal and will last long past the Dear Leader's not-so-fond-farewell.

Gotta do what the boss tells you to do. Fractional ownership is no big secret. If the boss tells you to start exploring options, you do it. Surely you haven't been at NJA long enough to be institutionalized...

I'm having to do the same thing right now. Our company doesn't have a flight dept, but is getting ready to start one. NJA has come up, and if I'm told to explore fractional ownership, I will do so, even if it means losing the job. In the past it was an easier pill to swallow since we were led to believe that more sales = faster recall. A few of us tried to convince the company that they should hire furloughed pilots to sell shares. No dice. Wouldn't have flown anyway since you'd have had to resign your seniority number.

With my state of slight intoxication coupled with the wife waking me up at 0230 for no good reason, I'm actually a little pissed at you're inference that I'm making this up. We no longer live in the candy coated NJA world.

 

[Pervis]

Consider we are about to start negotiations for a new CBA. Much of what is disclosed in recurrent is posturing. It's simply business, and should not be taken personally, and reading between the lines is pointless right now.

Our numbers are up, we are seeing more leisure flying, and even the slow day-Saturday-is approaching numbers we had in 2007. All with fewer a/c. I blocked 90 hrs in the first two months, and that included a vacation period. I find myself worn out far earlier each tour.

If this continues, the biggest problem we'll see is what we had early last decade. Not enough jets followed by not enough pilots. We have enough pilots only if we include those furloughed right now. The artificial contractual minimum of pilots per a/c is rediculously low. And when new deliveries begin in earnest, the cycle rolls on and on. Add the anticipated legacy hiring boom and guess who has the advantage in section 6.

 

[G4dude]

Consider we are about to start negotiations for a new CBA. Much of what is disclosed in recurrent is posturing. It's simply business, and should not be taken personally, and reading between the lines is pointless right now.

Our numbers are up, we are seeing more leisure flying, and even the slow day-Saturday-is approaching numbers we had in 2007. All with fewer a/c. I blocked 90 hrs in the first two months, and that included a vacation period. I find myself worn out far earlier each tour.

If this continues, the biggest problem we'll see is what we had early last decade. Not enough jets followed by not enough pilots. We have enough pilots only if we include those furloughed right now. The artificial contractual minimum of pilots per a/c is rediculously low. And when new deliveries begin in earnest, the cycle rolls on and on. Add the anticipated legacy hiring boom and guess who has the advantage in section 6.

I hope you are right! My main worry is the economy as a whole, which will impact our business more and more.

 

[G4dude]

G you have a sad understanding of how bargaining works. If no one ever bargained for an industry-leading contract, then we'd all be making 35K. I don't want to make 35K; I want to make a real living. What happened the last two times NetJets pilots got raises? Everyone else did too. We as pilots need to be our own advocates, otherwise we'll enjoy a life of mediocrity.

Fair enough, but my point is we might want to keep our compensation where it is, not try to get more, because our competitors pay a lot less, making them tough competition.

 

[Pervis]

Fair enough, but my point is we might want to keep our compensation where it is, not try to get more, because our competitors pay a lot less, making them tough competition.

G4, consider record profits these last two years with net loss in sales. Consider the huge debt we had that is close to going away, which will only mean higher profit margines. Consider how much more profit will exist when sales do rebound, and they will. In spite of what our competitors charge and what their pilots are paid. I base my expectations upon what my company can afford, not theirs.

We are the reason for this profit, not the VP of coffee cups or director of door knobs, and I want a piece of the pie. We can afford significant increases now while times are tough. Do you think for a moment they will offer us a bigger piece when times do improve and we're locked into a status quo contract? You overestimate their benevolence and accept mediocrity while they increase their own wealth, at our expense.

 

[gutshotdraw]

Gotta do what the boss tells you to do. Fractional ownership is no big secret. If the boss tells you to start exploring options, you do it. Surely you haven't been at NJA long enough to be institutionalized...

I'm having to do the same thing right now. Our company doesn't have a flight dept, but is getting ready to start one. NJA has come up, and if I'm told to explore fractional ownership, I will do so, even if it means losing the job. In the past it was an easier pill to swallow since we were led to believe that more sales = faster recall. A few of us tried to convince the company that they should hire furloughed pilots to sell shares. No dice. Wouldn't have flown anyway since you'd have had to resign your seniority number.

With my state of slight intoxication coupled with the wife waking me up at 0230 for no good reason, I'm actually a little pissed at you're inference that I'm making this up. We no longer live in the candy coated NJA world.

Sorry Opec, didn't mean to offend. I thought you meant people were pitching their boss on NJA unsolicited, not at the boss' request. Different issue.

Fifteen years ago, my boss "explored" the fractional option without telling me he was doing so and by the time the maintenance auditor showed up to review the aircraft logbooks and paperwork (the proverbial "lightbulb moment") it was too late to even discuss it. So I've been down that road.

I stand by my belief that owners ARE more price sensitive these days, some more than others, and that the political and economic realities in the US are the reasons why.