Furloughs at Delta and Northwest

[Superpilot92]

No problem at all. I'm all for protecting everyone equally. The last thing we need to do is give the company free reign to move equipment and create more uncertainty in our lives. I'm for fences around your bases and equipment as well. No Delta guy should be able to move into DTW and move you down your list or delay your upgrade during a generous transition period.

Just to recap, that was one of the biggest sticking points to all the "synergies" and "efficiencies. They have full intentions on moving aircraft around the system. one example that was made by RA was moving airbuses around to free up the domestic 757s for international stuff. I think the biggest shift will be NWA planes around to DAL bases, we'll see.

 

[Superpilot92]

Uhm is it just me, or if everyone else begins to furlough won't DL and NWA announce furloughs as well. It would follow the same logic regards of the merger. It looks like they are in a tough position being held to their statements of no furloughs in the merger when perhaps they desperately need them as well to reduce costs right now.

CAL didnt go to bankruptcy which left alot of debt.
AA didnt go to Bankruptcy which left alot of debt not to mention the 300+ md80s.
USair-is a mess
UAL-Came out of Bankruptcy in not much better shape then when they went in. Plus its no secret their mgmt team has no intention on growing or building a better UAL, they just want to trim the fat to get sold.

DAL and NWA trimmed heavily in bankruptcy and has kept staffing very low, especially NWA. Both NWA and DAL have new aircraft coming which will offset the retirement of any aircraft and in fact increase the number of pilots needed since its mainly domestic planes being retired and international aircraft arriving. Even with age 65 both sides are still having retirements which in 4 1/2 years will start hitting in full force (which was already supposed to start ) On that note the over 60 guys aren't very reliable pilots because HR doesnt know how long past 60 they will stay or if they will go on LTD until they burn through their sick banks.

There are many factors here which make the new DAL different than the rest. We'll see very soon wont we?

 

[Draginass]

AA also has replacement aircraft on order to start replacing the Super 80s in addition to the ability to get priority production.

 

[Superpilot92]

AA also has replacement aircraft on order to start replacing the Super 80s in addition to the ability to get priority production.

I know, i was just saying they have 300 domestic aircraft to replace NWA/DAL probably have half that number. DAL currently is getting 737s as well and i suspect a bigger order for more after the merger since that will likely be the replacement for the DC9s in the long run, or if they can find some cheap airbuses. Honest question, Is AA getting any new international aircraft?

 

[General Lee]

Gen, I understand. Something still has to give. Time will tell what it is.

You're right. I hope it is 50 seat RJs. We have too much point to point that can't pay the bills. We have 5 daily CRJ-50s from BOS to BWI and PHL. Why? Can any of them pay for the gas alone? I can see maybe a couple daily (8am and 5 pm), but why 5? Is there that much demand? Are they doing it because USAir and Airtran do it? USAir flies A319s and Airtran flies 717s. We will lose with CRJ-50s.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Flyer1015]

For what it's worth, the 9's are PAID for and hopefully will be the replacement for a buttload of worthless 50 seaters.

I just LOVE how former RJ drivers start to sh*t talk about 50 seaters as soon as they move to mainline.

 

[Redmeat]

Uhm is it just me, or if everyone else begins to furlough won't DL and NWA announce furloughs as well.

NWA/DL will furlough.

 

[General Lee]

NWA/DL will furlough.

Is this before or after we get 8 777LRs next year, along with 10 more 737-700s, and a bunch of MD90s? Anything is possible I guess.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[eatme]

Is this before or after we get 8 777LRs next year, along with 10 more 737-700s, and a bunch of MD90s? Anything is possible I guess.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

No its after oil goes to $200 bbl., and you esad like everyone else in this industry.

 

[Flyer1015]

Is this before or after we get 8 777LRs next year, along with 10 more 737-700s, and a bunch of MD90s? Anything is possible I guess.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

It's after those select numbers of DC9s are parked, A319s/A320s are parked, and after the 757s parked.

But like you said, anything is possible.


Have no worry, any DAL/NWA furloughee will enjoy the leftseat at Compass and/or Mesaba.

Those Compass and Mesaba guys can't wait to have you!

 

[DYLIN]

It's after those select numbers of DC9s are parked, A319s/A320s are parked, and after the 757s parked.

But like you said, anything is possible.


Have no worry, any DAL/NWA furloughee will enjoy the leftseat at Compass and/or Mesaba.

Those Compass and Mesaba guys can't wait to have you!

I am having a difficult time understanding your post. I cannot be the only one; every time I see your clown head avatar I know exactly what the post will be about.

NWA just put out a statement to the pilot group -- the fall reduction in fleet that you just spoke of will not result in furloughs. By the way, the numbers for the DC-9 retirements have not changed since 2007.

Second of all -- Mesaba can take how many furloughed NWA pilots? 15? Isn't that about how many have flowed up to NWA so far? Not really significant at all in a company of more than a thousand pilots.

Third of all -- Compass. Anyone who works there took the job knowing that the flowback risk is there. You say NWA/DAL pilots can enjoy the left or right seat of Compass. Do you realize that if oil hit $200 a barrel that most of the furloughees from mainline would not even be able to get the right seat of a Compass E-175?

 

[Flyer1015]

NWA just put out a statement to the pilot group -- the fall reduction in fleet that you just spoke of will not result in furloughs.

They will say whatever people want to hear. Today, people want to hear that there will be no furloughs.

Plus, it doesn't help to say there will be furloughs, considering the government is looking to approve the merger. Annoucning job cuts as a result of the merger doesn't go well. People want to hear jobs will be protected, and it benefits employees and consumers.

I don't trust what anyone 'says' until I see the result. Let the airplanes get parked, all the ones mentioned, and then we'll see if people are furloughed or not.

Mesaba can take how many furloughed NWA pilots? 15? Isn't that about how many have flowed up to NWA so far? Not really significant at all in a company of more than a thousand pilots.

That's exactly what Eagle guys thought was going to happen... only have as many flowbacks as the number that flowthroughed (which is roughly 115). But long story short, over 600 flowbacks came to Eagle, due to a unfair arbitration decision.

Anyone who works there took the job knowing that the flowback risk is there.

Anyone who took a job in aviation knows they could lost it in a heartbeat.

Do you realize that if oil hit $200 a barrel that most of the furloughees from mainline would not even be able to get the right seat of a Compass E-175?

Forget it. The day oil hits $200/barrel is the day we are all collectively f#$ked. Forget aviation. Hopefully ya'll got some good backup degrees from college, cause you gonna need it.

Lets hope this really is an oil bubble caused by speculators, and that this bubble pops real soon...

 

[Flyer1015]

every time I see your clown head avatar I know exactly what the post will be about.

<-------- You don't get the joke, you must not know who that is dressed up as a clown...

 

[DYLIN]

I wasn't talking about who is dressed up, but rather, the content of most posts to the right of that clown.

 

[Jonny Sacko]

I don't know who that is, could you spill the beans on that guy? Thanks.

 

[Redmeat]

They will say whatever people want to hear

We have a WINNAH!

There will not be any negative announcements until after the merger is locked down tight at the end of the year.

Then the bad news and reneging will begin.

If oil continues to climb, all bets will be off.

 

[General Lee]

No its after oil goes to $200 bbl., and you esad like everyone else in this industry.

Most airlines will stop flying then, and the ones remaining with a bit of cash will rule the place. Also, at that price most people will stop driving too, and oil supply will rise, and the price will come back down.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[tomgoodman]

The trend is not your friend

There will not be any negative announcements until after the merger is locked down tight at the end of the year.

Then the bad news and reneging will begin.

If oil continues to climb, all bets will be off.

Very possibly true. But pilots should ask themselves what their negotiating position will be at the end of the year if a joint contract has not been signed. Delay is advisable only when your bargaining strength is increasing, and that doesn't appear to be the case. When a flood is foreseeable, it's wise to attain the highest possible ground ahead of time.

 

[chjack]

Most airlines will stop flying then, and the ones remaining with a bit of cash will rule the place. Also, at that price most people will stop driving too, and oil supply will rise, and the price will come back down.


Bye Bye--General Lee

people have cut back on their driving. demand is down, supply is up inspite of what the oil companies or saudi barons will tell you. unless something is done about the speculators, oil will hit $200.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Tom:

Normally yes, but how do you account for LOA 19?

NWA brings more pilots than pilot jobs. Best case scenario is that they are absorbed into Delta's growth while the Delta pilots stagnate. Worst case is that Delta pilots take 60% or more of NWA's furloughs.

The JPWA looks like a good deal, but it brings with it an expedited course direct for the arbitration heralded by the NWA MEC and removes any incentive for negotiations.

The NWA pilots have convinced the Delta pilots that "seniority is everything."

We are being told "trust us" like there was a hope of a secret seniority agreement, but then we were told there has been no seniority talks at all.

IMHO the NWA MEC has been effectively positioning themselves for a successful arbitration. Muddying the water is an excellent strategy & A319 pay rates above the MD88 helps too. (Some claim an arbitrator can see through these preparations, but IMEO that's wrong thinking. Arbitrators on a three person panel will seek consensus which means simplifying the facts. Mud is very effective to reduce visibility)

Some Delta pilots clearly feel there is an advantage in shooting down the JPWA to get the SLI put back in front of the contract. I dare say that they control the internal debate right now. The current expectation is that the JPWA will be voted down. (current, as in "subject to change")

Politically every option seems risky given the USAPA precedent.