What are the chances of AA hiring again?

[bayoubandit]

When will AA start hiring again, that's simple! About the time I get my recall. Ahh the joys of being the junior guy!

I've done the DFW-EWR commute many years ago. It wasn't that bad back then either.

 

[TWA Dude]

I'll bet no more than half of that 3000 actually go back.

I'll take that bet. The usual amount? (from Trading Places that means 1$) Historically, around ten percent don't return from furlough. Due to the age of the many ex-TWA furloughees and other factors this case will probably be closer to 20% -- but nowhere near 50%. Consider that over half of the guys who say they're never coming back actually shall.

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To answer the original question, rumor has it that AA's ten/month recall rate will increase dramatically later in 2007. Even a very optimistic view would have a minimum of a year or two before the whole furlough list has been offered recall -- more likely longer. Due to the three-year bypass option it's possible off-the-street hiring could begin before all furloughees are back but it's way too soon to tell.

 

[AAflyer]

They'd start recalling faster if the Pilot Group had some sense and didn't go public with their refusal to fly the China route and impede AAs application for the China Route.

You don't know Jack! Why would you negotiate something like a super long haul agreement outside of sect 6? Why? We have gone down the road of lower expectations, in fact ALL legacy carriers have.

It is time to push for a change in the opposite direction. If AMR wants China Flying so bad, then they can negotiate our contract includling super long haul.

Hell, when they negotiated the last contract under duress it was done in under a couple months.

Why don't you stick to bitchig about NWA, you are probably one of a handful I have met in MSP telling others what a great deal your past TA was.

AAflyer

 

[AAflyer]

I'll take that bet. The usual amount? (from Trading Places that means 1$) Historically, around ten percent don't return from furlough. Due to the age of the many ex-TWA furloughees and other factors this case will probably be closer to 20% -- but nowhere near 50%. Consider that over half of the guys who say they're never coming back actually shall.

break

To answer the original question, rumor has it that AA's ten/month recall rate will increase dramatically later in 2007. Even a very optimistic view would have a minimum of a year or two before the whole furlough list has been offered recall -- more likely longer. Due to the three-year bypass option it's possible off-the-street hiring could begin before all furloughees are back but it's way too soon to tell.

I would have to agree to what TWADUDE said, however judging everyone that hates AA, and what a horrible place it is, I expect to be hiring off the street in a year as know one in their right mind would come back to such a horrible company.

AA

 

[wings421]

How does AA view STL as a long term base? I know that they pulled about half of their flights out of there what, three years ago? Since then its stayed pretty much the same size. Any rumors about its future in AA's plans?

 

[aa73]

How does AA view STL as a long term base? I know that they pulled about half of their flights out of there what, three years ago? Since then its stayed pretty much the same size. Any rumors about its future in AA's plans?

Good luck figuring that one out. Nobody here knows.. it's all up in the air. However, given that they built a brand new pilot/FA ops (best in the system), I'd venture they're gonna be there awhile.

AA hiring.... tough one as well. My guess is in the next 3-5 years, we'll see off the street hiring. As was mentioned above, this would be due to the large number of pilots not wanting to come back.

Good luck!
73

 

[sexybeast]

Thanks for the speculation guys. I would really like to stay in the DFW as far as airline employment goes. I currently commute to DEN which hasn't been too bad, but when I settle into my final career airline (if there is such a thing) I would like it to be based out of the DFW area.

I currently have 30 years of flying left (assuming age 60 and good health) so I am not in a hurry to get on with any major. Like I said before, I don't have it too bad at OO. I currently help run a successful family business in the DFW area (I married well) so this is the only place I would want to be based.

I know it may be backwards, but my preference is AA before Southwest. Southwest seems like a great company but I'm just not that interested. I would probably take Netjets of Flexjets over Southwest if I'm lucky enough to have that choice. Anyway, I have at least 3-5 years of 121 PIC time to gather before making a decision. Thanks again for the inside info!

 

[Mr Hat]

I'll take that bet. The usual amount? (from Trading Places that means 1$) Historically, around ten percent don't return from furlough. Due to the age of the many ex-TWA furloughees and other factors this case will probably be closer to 20% -- but nowhere near 50%. Consider that over half of the guys who say they're never coming back actually shall.

Mortimer, I would agree with you. Historically around 10% don't return from furlough....however this last furlough from 9/11 is anything but historical. I don't think there's been a furlough of more than 5 years in recent history to go on. Also in that time period, SWA, Jetblue, Fedex, Airtran, UPS and a bunch of overseas carriers have been hiring. Look at Uniteds recalls, not many returning.....we'll have to wait til the last round to find out for sure how many stayed away. Plus the bad blood between American and TWA...I just don't think many will be going back. I could be wrong though, I'm just sittin here at ol Expressjet and I'm more of an outsider looking in.
Cheers

 

[Andy]

Anybody have AMR's annual retirement numbers? Add ~200 annually to that number for recalls.
At this point, I'd bet on 1500 returning before starting to hire again. Plan on at least 500 accepting recall and immediately going on mil leave. With the hiring over at FedEx/UPS, I'd bet on 2/3s returning ... eventually.
I'm going to guess that AMR will start hiring again in the fall of '09.

As for STL, my bet is that they keep it and expand it once DFW gets maxed out. They originally bought up TWA because they couldn't get NWAC. The reason why they wanted NWAC was for another central US hub to relieve overcrowding at DFW and ORD. TWA with the STL hub was the runnerup and AMR decided STL was better than nothing.

 

[crashmbern]

i heard somewhere that over 4,000 AA guys are retireing in the next 10 years, similar to continental.