1,400 still furloughed at 400 per year is 3 1/2 years, possibly less time for growth airplanes, depending on whether the combined airline shrinks in the near future? Then another year or two of 400 per year retirements to have enough new-hires to push a person hired now off reserve = 4 - 6 years, depending on the hiring variable and if people don't take recall?
Not looking to start over, just lurking and didn't realize that many people were still on the street there... Being furloughed sucks, I know. Hope everyone gets back if they want to sooner than later!
The total number of LUAL furloughs is 1435 (was 1437; one died and one turned 65). The actual number is probably lower; I only know of those two.
There are ~400 LUAL pilots currently flying at LCAL or in the training pipeline.
LUAL pilots have 10 years' recall rights from date of furlough. That has not changed in the new contract, so all pilots under the new contract will have 10 years' recall rights. Because of this, many will not return anytime in the near future.
On the last round of LUAL recalls in 2006-2008, approximately 2/3s of 2172 returned to LUAL. Those that bypassed a second time lost all recall rights (the 10 year recall rights were added in the contract rewrite).
The number of retirements in 2006-2008 at LUAL were less than the combined LUAL/LCAL retirements.
The new contract is supposed to require ~700 more pilots in order to fly in accordance with the contract.
737 training at LCAL is maxed out. When I went through training, someone high up in the training dept talked to our class and stated that they were looking 'worldwide' for available 737 sim time. AFAIK, no sim outsourcing has occurred yet.
Prior to the new contract, all LUAL furloughees had been offered a training slot at LCAL and they began to hire off of the street.
How many LUAL furloughees will return due to the new contract? Maybe another 400. That would tie up current available training for another year. If they outsource sim time, that time decreases.