Trouble at AMR

[Draginass]

Concur with G4G5.

AE ALPA put the handcuffs on themselves when they signed that sweetheart contract in '97.

The real negotiations are between AA and APA, with AE being a side show (at least for now). Until the main point are worked out between the two primary players, AE ALPA isn't in a position to dictate anything to anybody.

However, I believe it is all mute. AMR's response on JAN 6, will be a litany of reasons why it is not economically feasible. In fact, Carty will need to cut mainline costs close to United to be competitive. UAL pilots are staring a 29% pay-cut or else scenario.

Hmmm. . . . Without seeing the exact figures, I think that pay-cut will put them about par with APA's CURRENT greenbook rates.

 

[SUPREME NTM]

G4G5, I agree with you 100%
MachPi, not so much with you and I don't like what you are implying !!!

Happy Holidays.

 

[Lumber Yak]

Macphi,

Just because you drop bombs from 40,000 feet or serve as an air-to-air gas station doesn't necessarily make you a better pilot. I'd say that a commuter pilot (ERJ or CRJ) or a corporate/fractional pilot with plenty of glass time and at least 2000+ hours on the line prepares you better for the rigors (or lack thereof) of hub-to-hub flying... You don't have to know how to fly formation in the airlines...

If military refugees want stability - they should apply to Southwest or UPS...

I agree with Supreme, your attitude is a bit cocky! Let me guess, your name is Val and your nickname was "Iceman"...

 

[LiveFreeorDie]

I don't understand why AMR or AAL or the union would go for one list.

If you are competitive for a job at AAL you should apply there. People at the commuters/regionals usually aren't, otherwise they would be there.

You don't need one list, you need to apply for a job at the majors. When I interviewed and was offered a job at Eagle the competitive mins were a joke. I could have met them as a kid with a year in the industry. So why should that qualify me for AAL?

And if AMR wants to hire a military pilot, who are you or anybody to tell them different?

IF YOU DON'T LIKE IT start your own airline and run it the way you think will be most profitable.

This poor me, I'm entitled to a job, WHAAAAA....life isn't fair crap is getting old.

If you don't like your job, quit!! Go someplace else, do something else.

No one owes you @!#$!!!!

It's the guys who start companies that make America great, not the whinny union pukes.

The only union I've seen that doesn't seem hell bent on destroying its company is the one at SWA.

So good luck to you and why don't you start working on something you can control, like your resume and qualifications. Instead of whining about stuff you can't control, like unions, corporate america, and HR departments.


(And I know I can't spell so no point in brining it up.)

 

[Spur]

Incoming!!!

Here we go again...

MachPi - Totally agree

Supreme - What do you think MachPi is implying

Yak - I think you need to reread MachPi's post... slowly this time... look up the words you dont understand... Then apologize.

 

[SF3CA]

"AA has to have some mechanism to draw ex-mil pilots directly into mainline flying. Otherwise, they will ALL flow elsewhere: to Delta, SWA, NW et al. That would be a colossal error on American's part, and APA (and ALPA) should make sure that doesn't happen."

You are correct that it would be a colossal error on American's part if they were the only airline that combined the list.

This is were ALPA National has really dropped the ball. ALPA national needs encourage/demand that ALL airlines develop one list that does that brand of flying. The only people that are loosing are the employees when 5 different airlines compete to provide the services to a customer when he calls that airlines 1-800 number.

IF all employees at all airlines would put pressure/negotiate to make it one company that provides airline service to the customer, then all employees would benifit in job security. All employees (regardless of background) would start at the bottom and work their way up. Then there would be no difference to the new hire except pay scale and job security at each airline. The airline would have to compete (i.e. offer more pay, benefits, and job security) if they wanted to attract the most qualified pilots.

I realize ........Fat chance on ALPA ever encouraging this!


SF3CA

 

[trainerjet]

This is were ALPA National has really dropped the ball. ALPA national needs encourage/demand that ALL airlines develop one list that does that brand of flying.

Unfortunately, there is one major flaw in your utopian scenario. "ALPA National" doesn't represent ALL airlines, and therefore cannot possibly demand this "one list".

 

[AAsRedHeadedbro]

Sometimes I think that most of us fail to understand that the APA is charged with securing the most favorable conditions for their own constituents. To do anything else would be a dereliction of their responsibilities to their own membership. Therefore, why should the APA be concerned with how this proposal might affect pilots on another seniority list represented by another union? They shouldn't be.

That said, however, make no mistake - this proposal, as written, is not a good one for Eagle pilots - contrary to what some of my mainline compatriots may think. This proposal, while labeled "It's time, One airline" is NOT a proposal for one airline. It is a proposal that maintains two airlines on the AMR property flown by pilots on one pseudo-list. I say pseudo-list because, while we may all have the same AA badges, and may all be on the same seniority list, in effect we will still be operating on two separate lists; and as proposed, pilots on the "mainline" side of the list will have disproportionate "rights" relative to their Eagle brethren on the same "list".

Here are some bullets I pulled right out of the proposal:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
• AA pilots on furlough would have access to all small jet
vacancies in the commuter supplement and commuter supplement
pilots could not access mainline vacancies until all furloughees
are recalled to the mainline.
• Commuter supplement pilots would gain the right to exercise
mainline seniority numbers when they upgrade to Captain.
• Company could hire into either commuter supplement or mainline
vacancies.
• Commuter supplement pilots would have access to mainline at
some agreed to ratio (specific number not determined). Assumes no
mainline pilot is furloughed.
• Mainline pilots would have the option of accepting a
displacement to the commuter supplement or a furlough in a down
cycle.
• Mainline pilots could only displace into commuter supplement
Captain positions. Only pilots displaced from commuter supplement
bid statuses would have recall rights into the commuter
supplement (except all current furloughees could recall into the
commuter supplement).
• Commuter supplement pilots cannot displace into mainline bid
statuses unless they had previously held any mainline bid status.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The first bullet I agree with. I have no problem with that one as long as it applies only to the current batch of furloughees and any that may follow as a direct result of THIS downturn in the industry, not future downturns.

The third bullet, the "Company could hire into either commuter supplement or mainline", I have a problem with when some of the other bullet points are considered along with it. When one begins to think of some very plausible scenarios playing out, one sees that an interesting situation can develop. Let me illustrate: two pilots are hired by AMR at some future date. They are hired on the same day and are given consecutive AA seniority numbers - let’s just say # 14,000 and # 14,001 for discussion's sake. For whatever reason, pilot number 14,001 is sent to mainline and pilot number 14,000 is sent to the Commuter Supplement (as if a 1,300 nm range, mach .78, 50 pax small jet is a "commuter". But that's for a different discussion). Pilot number 14,001 immediately begins to enjoy all of the negotiated benefits of his mainline contract, including the superior pay, benefits and upward mobility associated with being able to bid various bases and equipment as seniority dictates. Meanwhile, pilot number 14,000 begins enjoying the benefits of his regional contract (albeit Comair's rates plus some premium), including the lower pay and more difficult working conditions, not to mention not being able to move on up to better paying larger equipment (there is no larger equipment).

Our pilot with AA seniority # 14,000 working at the Commuter Supplement will more than likely also spend many years at the commuter supplement, initially as a first officer and later as a captain. Only then would he "gain the right to exercise
(his) mainline seniority number when (he) upgrade(s) to Captain." However, once he qualifies as a captain, it will take him quite some time to make the transition over to the mainline - probably a few years - because "Commuter supplement pilots would have access to mainline at some agreed to ratio (specific number not determined)." What ratio would that be? One new pilot off the street directly into mainline for one transitioning "Commuter Supplement" pilot? Two for one? Three for one? Ten for one? It could be any ratio. Therefore, AA mainline would need to be actively hiring in order for Commuter Supplement captains to make the transition to mainline. The net effect to all of this will be very slow movement upward at the Commuter Supplement, leaving many pilots waiting years to qualify as captain and more years to transition over, all the while new pilots being hired off the street years later will be walking right into Mainline positions and enjoying the Mainline’s benefits.

It seems to be true, however that the proposal would allow the transitioning Commuter Supplement pilot to exercise his overall seniority once he arrives at the Mainline, but how many years of pay, benefits, and superior work rules would he have lost out on while awaiting his opportunity to transition over?

The good news continues if one reads the proposal further and considers some very possible scenarios. To quote, "Mainline pilots would have the option of accepting a displacement to the commuter supplement or a furlough in a down cycle." Let's look at this provision. Let's say that our intrepid pilot number 14,000, the Commuter Supplement pilot, has been working at the Commuter Supplement for a few years now and is fairly close to that elusive upgrade to captain. Meanwhile, many pilots, probably over a thousand, have been hired at the Mainline during that time, supposedly with seniority numbers junior to his, although he cannot yet exercise his number until he arrives at the Mainline. Eventually, the inevitable downturn hits the industry and furloughs begin. Guess where the furloughees - who are all probably junior to our intrepid Commuter Supplement pilot - are going to go. They are going to go to the Commuter Supplement as quoted above. However, these furloughed Mainline pilots, who, you will remember, are mostly junior to our Commuter Supplement pilot who is awaiting an upgrade to captain, will only furlough into Commuter Supplement CAPTAIN positions as per this next bullet point which I will quote: "Mainline pilots could only displace into commuter supplement Captain positions."

So here we will have a situation whereby a senior pilot with an AA number who has not yet been allowed to exercise his number will be stuck in the first officer's position at the Commuter Supplement while a much more junior pilot with an AA number who was hired directly into the mainline possibly years later will be flying as a captain, with all of the pay and benefits associated with that seat.

Additionally, when recalls finally happen, maybe years later, guess who gets recalled first. The more junior pilot who happens to be a Mainline furloughee - not the more senior pilot who happened to end up at the Commuter Supplement. Here is the quote: "...and commuter supplement pilots could not access mainline vacancies until all furloughees are recalled to the mainline." So our Commuter Supplement pilot, who has by now spent years in the right seat of a small jet, would still not be able to exercise his seniority.

So this proposal is NOT, in fact a "One Airline" proposal as the title of the letter sent to AA pilots states. It maintains the concept of two airlines and two workgroups working under one corporation. The proposal returns all flying on behalf of AMR to the APA house, as it should, but it does not create one seniority list (or one that is worthy of being called a single seniority list). This is because the provisions of the proposal are weighted heavily in favor of pilots, present and future, at the mainline as opposed to the pilots at the Commuter Supplement.

I have spoken with literally dozens of AA pilots in the past few months who've said to me, without me saying a word to prime them, that we, the pilots of AE and AA should form one list and that all pilots hired in the future should be placed on the BOTTOM of that list. This is what a true seniority list is. The brotherly attitude from the AA pilots has been very refreshing of late, so it has come as a great disappointment, and maybe a slight surprise to many of us that APA would put forth a proposal which is so heavily weighted to one side. This proposal does not give many of us, the Eagle pilots, the feeling of UNITY that APA seems to be so publicly espousing with it's flashy billboards.

 

[jetexas]

One of the main arguments I've heard in the past is that the miitary guys don't want to have guys fly a Saab/ATR/etc... at the regionals upon discharge. They want to go straight to the majors and have their buddies move right on in for numerous reasons, skipping the regionals. The low pay on the regional side is not comensurate with a military pilots livelihood after making 80 grand for uncle sam so no one wants to suffer financially after working for the gov't. I can understand that though do not sympathize since I have yet to make even 30K in one year. I have been at Eagle for 4 years and have been flying for 9 years. (I did my best to fly for uncle sam as a pilot but such is life)
The Turboprops are leaving and will be gone soon. Some regionals are already all regional jet. Nobody is gonna have to fly a Turboprop upon entering a large airline conglomerate.
I can see very little reason to have a "two list/one list" like the APA proposal suggests.
One of two things will happen. The regionals will bring down the majors or the majors can bring up the regionals to some sort of parity of pay scale, benefitting all. The only way to have an outcome that is positive for both sides is to go one list, and fairly.
Sacrificing a few years at the "regionals" by all, including the ex-military to move up to the mainline large jets on a "one list" all the way would benefit all pilots in the long run. Instead, what we have now are regionals taking away routes and volume from majors with management playing each against the other.

 

[toneal]

In other news, did anyone see the new billboard they put up just south of DFW airport? It says "Unity"

 

[Lumber Yak]

Here we go again...

MachPi - Totally agree

Supreme - What do you think MachPi is implying

Yak - I think you need to reread MachPi's post... slowly this time... look up the words you dont understand... Then apologize.

Hey Spur - thanks Dad! You are confused because you refuse to acknowledge the military arrogance so pervasive on these forums... At the end of the day, it comes down to hours/flying ability and personality. I am not the only one who spotted it - Supreme did too. I'll bet most Eagle ERJ captains could fly rings around the military pilots in the sims. Can I borrow the car now Dad?

 

[Draginass]

Dual entry points for military and civilian pilots is a company requirement for combining lists. They aren't stupid. They know that few military pilots would apply to AA if they had to start along side a 500 hour CFI, especially when other majors hired straight into large jets. The company also has a lower failure rate in training with military pilots vs. pure civilian ones.

As far as qualifications go, there's no credible comparison between an entry level commuter pilot who is probably a 500-1000 hour CFI in simple airplanes and a military guy who's probably a 2000 hour instructor pilot in fast/heavy jets, and that's after he/she survived a 30% washout rate at UPT.

 

[AAsRedHeadedbro]

Ugh!! The Military vs. Civilian "my D**K is bigger than your D**K" debate again!! Who cares!?

The company...any company...will do whatever it feels is in its best interest. I highly doubt that the powers that be could care less whether or not a military pilot starts in a small jet or a larger one. It would be the military pilot's loss if he didn't accept a job offer at AA simply because he didn't want to start along side a 500 hour CFI, if in fact the mythical 500 hour CFI even existed in any repectable regional airline new hire class.

It appears that you really have no idea of the competitive qualifications that today’s regional airlines require of their new hires. It seems that you have mistaken the hiring trends of the 1970's and early 80's for today. Regional airlines may state a certain minimum but the actual flight times and experience of their new hires tends to be much higher than the minimums. Essentially all new hires have Bachelor degrees or higher. Most have at least 2,500 hours total time with good single pilot, all-weather, night IFR experience flying multi engine pieces of $hit for freight operators. Others have hundreds, if not thousands of hours flying corporate jets. There is no such thing as the 500 hour CFI flying for Eagle or any other respectable regional airline (well, there may be a few, but they are statistically meaningless in terms of overall numbers and most of them came from dedicated college ab-initio airline training programs). The so-called 500-hour CFI would have a difficult time adapting to a jet as a new hire.

The regional airlines have been flying these jets for the past eight years, starting with Comair in 1994 (I believe) and their new hires have handled them with no problems. The safety record of the regional airlines with these small jets has been exemplary.

The military obviously turns out excellent pilots, but so does the civilian sector, so let's all give it a rest already. Jeez!

 

[MachPi]

I am not the only one who spotted it - Supreme did too. I'll bet most Eagle ERJ captains could fly rings around the military pilots in the sims.

That's wonderful, but beside my point, which is AA needs a mechanism to have both ex-mil and civilian pilots flow to the mainline.

An ex-mil with 11 years or so in active duty gets out at about 32 years of age. He simply doesn't have time to put in another 10 or 11 years at Eagle and enjoy a decent retirement. Like I said before, he can't afford to spend 11 years in one AAA league, then go and spend 11 more years at another AAA league before he gets a shot at mainline. So, if required to do so by list changes at AMR, he will seek employment elsewhere.

You apparently don't see the possibility of a shutting off of the ex-mil pilot flow to AMR as a bad thing. I understand that; it would get you to the mainline much more quickly.

I happen to think it would be a very bad thing. AA needs both civ and ex-mil pilots.

I'm not disparaging the talents of civilian-track pilots, and if that's what you 'spotted' in my last post, you're sorely mistaken. I've flown with many very good pilots with pure civilian backgrounds. But when you start thinking it's a good idea to send an 11 or 15 or 20 year ex-mil veteran to the bottom of a very long combined list, you lose me.

I usually just lurk here to read the news; you can tell I don't post often. But the combined list thread interests me, and since I hadn't seen the ramifications to ex-mil pilots and their future employment at AMR discussed in terms of the combined list, I thought I'd voice my concerns. It pains me to see the thing get twisted into another knee-jerk civ vs mil fish-slapping dance. That wasn't my intention. Back to lurk mode.

 

[100LL... Again!]

Note: This is not a flame in any way.

In some ways I think most of us agree that the mlitary guys deserve a straight shot to the majors for putting themselves in harm's way to serve their country.

One thing I do not understand, though:

What is the difference from the company's (mainline) perspective between filling a new hire class with 30 commuter jet CA's with 5-6000 hrs OR hiring a 15/15 split with mlitary guys?

What is the company's advantage? Does anyone really think that an EXPERIENCED commuter CA is a greater washout risk than a mlitary pilot? How many guys wash out of training at a major anyway? I'll bet it's statistically insignificant. (Regionals may be another story).

Maybe military pilots possess fantastic innate talents that make them excellent at civilian flying. Probably so. They need to remember, though, that us bumbling civilian jethros have a hell of a lot of PRACTICE at doing the exact same job as we are about to do at a major. Bigger plane, new V-speeds. Whatever.


The ONLY reason to have those dual entry points IMO, is to recognize their service to this country, for which I believe they deserve credit.

If we were using 'qualifications' and 'talent' as the justification for this system, then the upper entry point would have to be made for any highly experienced furloughed ALPA pilot from another carrier. Hmmmm.

 

[Loafman]

Do you really want to know where the sand got in the vaseline in the APA "Proposal"?

Here it is:


. "Commuter supplement pilots would gain the right to exercise
mainline seniority numbers when they upgrade to Captain."

What about our senior RJ FO's that never upgraded? Does their seniority count for squat over a 4 year SF3 CA?


. "Company could hire into either commuter supplement or mainline
vacancies."

Bull$hit. What this means is after all furloughs are recalled, they'll just go back to hiring their squadron buddies straight into mainline. A single seniority list means you start where your number can hold. The bottom.

. "Commuter supplement pilots would have access to mainline at
some agreed to ratio (specific number not determined). Assumes no mainline pilot is furloughed."

Does this read "Flow-Through"? Deja-vu? I got a ratio for ya. Every vacancy is available to anyone who's number can hold it and is not currently subject to a training freeze. Fair's Fair, right?


. "Mainline pilots would have the option of accepting a
displacement to the commuter supplement or a furlough in a down
cycle."

OK. I'll go for that one. Wherever your seniority holds.


. "Mainline pilots could only displace into commuter supplement
Captain positions. Only pilots displaced from commuter supplement bid statuses would have recall rights into the commuter supplement (except all current furloughees could recall into the commuter supplement)."

OK, now they think their 2 year F100 FO's are better than our 15 year RJ captains? Where does the seniority confusion end? Does every mainline pilot get to add an additional zero to their supplement number? Hogwash. Displace where your overall number holds. If you don't like SF3 FO, get a job at Lowes. Under this rule, all the displaced F100 guys will shove the junior Eagle guys off the bottom of the list or keep them from ever upgrading when they accelerate retirement of that aircraft and can't keep up with RJ70 deliveries to replace it.

Take all this crap out and it's a fine proposal. It just chaps my a$$ that APA thinks their pilots deserve our jobs. I sacrificed a real job and worked my butt off for this one. I'll be **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**ed if I'll pitch it all away for a seniority number at an airline that is trying to pull us under the waves as it sinks.

Want unlimited RJ growth? Tear up scope? SPIN US OFF. The 737 makes a fine RJ. Ask Southwest.

That's not my $.02, it's the way the cow ate the cabbage.

 

[G4G5]

Their are a few important things we need to keep in mind.

First off. Nothing "Official" has been printed so take anything that you read with a grain of salt.

Could the "commuter supplement", be designed with the intent to protect the senior Eagle FO who chooses quality of life vs upgrade. Or could it be designed to protect the desirable Eagle pilot bases from AA mainline folks who would rather fly an RJ out of RDU then sit reserve on an MD80 in LGA? The answer is, Yes. So the supplement could be used to protect the Eagle pilots. humm............

The second thing is this. "we need to protect the future military new hires" Is a bunch of BS, it was just a couple of weeks ago when I was saying the same thing. That was until I ran into a guy who was getting furloughed on the crew bus. He straightened me right out. "To heck with the guy who has never worked here, we need to protect the current pilots" What he was saying was let's take care of the AMR pilots both Eagle and AA, first. Their will be no job for a military guy to hire into, until everyone is recalled and with guys still going out the door, this should not be our biggest concern. Who knows he may have every USAir and UAL pilot ahead of him looking for a job, it's not our concern. Our concern is our pilots.

With plans for around 1400 pilot furloughs not to mention the Eagle folks already out. It will take YEARS to get everyone back. At a reasonable class of 40 guys per month that's over 3 years to recall everyone. So when do you think we will start recalling, when guys are still leaving? Two years is the minimum, maybe three. That puts us at a minimum of 5 years from today before everyone is back. I dare say that anyone flying at Eagle today deserves to go infront of someone we may hire in 2008 or 2009. By then, if things go as planned, the right seat pay of an ERJ should be a respectable position for any new hire. By then most Eagle FO's will be 4000-6000+ hour pilots with 5+ years of service to AMR.

So to put it eloquently, who cares about the future new hires right now? We need to take care of our own. As long as this proposal does not put anyone else out on the street AND it does bring back folks earlier, then it's a good thing.

 

[jetexas]

Great post G4G5..
Who cares what the future ex-military flyer wants to do with his career? If AA is a better company because it can fly any jet anywhere with no scope, harmony in the work force (finally), good morale (what a concept), etc, then so be it. There will likely be many more jobs and a better future at AA than any other airline anyway. The growth that could be generated through finally getting rid of scope could benefit us all that are currently here. If some future ex-military pilot wants to go to Northwest instead of AA for whatever reason I, for one, could care less. Especially if it means that AMR has suffered over the years ahead over the mere concept of a military pilot perhaps going to another major. (The Saabs will gone very shortly anyway, to be replaced by ever larger RJ's. So will the Fokkers....)
Well what about the future civlian flier? Perhaps AA could get the cream of the crop from the civilian ranks due to this? AA could raise the hiring standards so that that is assured. Eagle has usually been harder to get on than most other regional airlines anyway. When I was hired here in 98, I had 2500 hours and was average in flight time in my class.

Currently the trend in the industry is to grow the regionals and shrink the mainline. There will be many more regional jet jobs in the future than mainline jobs to hire into. We can take care of it now or all pay the consequences later.

 

[English]

(The following post is by CaptRob, he couldn't get signed in under his screen name)


What a great thread.

As a Saab Captain at Eagle, I looked at the proposal with a very large magnifying glass. It's the between the lines stuff that is what needs attention.

SCOPE. What AMR wants is no restrictions with any of it's aircraft. If a Saab is the most profitable between ORD and STL, then that's what they want to use. The proposal by APA has many new restrictions that limit the size of the fleet, hub to hub operations, etc. I think we at AMR have all seen the companies ability to circumvent language in an agreement. THe scope clause should be plain and simply "All flying on any AMR property will be performed by pilots on the APA seniority list." No exemptions, no variations. If we truly have "one list" there is no loss of work between the various pilot groups because there is only one. The company is going to try to make money flying the right aricraft for the route, we benefit when the company is profitable.

Whipsawing. The proposal has been mentioned to have three different "supplements". Wide body, narrow-body and commuter. The potential here is for two airlines to become three under the illusion of being one.

There has been alot of talk about Eagle being at the table for this proposal. There was no table. This is APA's opening attempt at gauging the companies willingness to merge AA and Eagle. Eagle's absence at a discussion that took place at APA headquarters is not significant here. When the company responds AND if they are interested in looking deeper into the proposal AND if the company actually starts to negotiate with APA over this issue, ALPA will be at the table, because there will be one. Right now, there are two rooms with ideas that are waiting for a response from another larger room with more expensive funiture and better catering. Let's wait until the table is in the room before we squabble over who's seated where.

As for the military guys not coming to AA if they have to fly regional aircraft; I have flown with numerous military pilots at Eagle. Captains, Lt Commanders and Commanders with years of military experience. They are at Eagle now. Why should any of them, or the civilian pilots here now, be penalized for a pilot that hasn't even started military training and won't even be available to leave the military for years? Besides, if they don't think the retirement at AA is worth a few years in an RJ, do we really want them anyway? Arrogance is dangerous in the cockpit, it breeds a dangerous precedent where people are more worried about their place in the food chain than the passengers they are charged with serving and protecting.

Rant over. Let the disscussion continue...

 

[G4G5]

You are talking about 2008 before this is even going to be an issue at AA. By then the industry will have changed tremendously.

Let me ask you this, where will the young military aviator go if AA/Eagle is the only job offer/interview? Where are they going to go until AA/UAL/DAL/NWA/CAL/U start hiring again? Seems like this has already happened.

What you need to remember is; That when hiring begins again in 5-6 years for the majors, a young military aviator will find the market place incredibly competitive. He/She will not be the most desirable candidate out there. They will be competiting with furloughed pilots from other majors, majors that have gone Ch7, LCC fo's like Airtran and Spirit, corporate (NetJets) folks with thousands of hours of international jet time, commuter folks who will be spending the better part of the next 5 or 6 years flying 800-900 hours a year, flying the system, familiar with their affiliated majors. All of the above mentioned groups already have militarty pilots who will be out in the market place looking for the same jobs the newby military pilot desires.

In 10 years does anyone think that SWA and JetBlue will be the desirable places to work at? What happens when you are the bottom guy in door at an LCC? You are looking at 10+ years to the left seat only to spend the rest of your career flying the exact same aircraft on the exact routes, for less money and no retirement. Take a close look at the AA/DAL/UAL rate of retirements in 10 years. The upgrade time will be about the same. So given the choice what would you do?

When hiring starts again, 4+ year degrees will be the standard and competitive times will start at 5000-6000+ hours. So a military fighter pilot with no civilian flying experience and 1,600-1,800 will not be the desirable candidate that he/she was in 1999 when the majors were interviewing thousands a year.

It will be over a decade before hiring times come down to what they were just a couple of years ago and IMHO the commuters will see quite an improvement in Qof L and pay over the next decade. Heck, most, if not all of the RJ's flying have nicer cockpits then my MD80. What happens if AA signs this deal with the Eagle pilots and then DAL does the same with their next contract and so on and so on, their will be quite a few contracts to sign in the next few years. Then what does the newby military pilot do?

To be honest it's not my biggest concern. If you work at a major protecting your own(mainline and commuter) should be. After all these are the folks who are out there day in and day out contributing to the bottom line. Not some guy we may hire in 6 years.