Andy Neill
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2001
- Posts
- 2,293
Task:
Your job is to establish an age cutoff to be used by airline pilots. The information you have been given are accident rates among pilots of ALL ages who fly similar types of operations. You notice this trend in accident rates per 100,000 hours among several consecutive age brackets:
A=.38
B=.36
C=.35
D=.34
E=.33
F=.32
G=.31
H=.30
I=.29
J=.30
K=.32
L=.34
M=.36
N=.39
Where would you establish the legal age limit? At E? At I? At L? At N?
A study that did such a comparison found that accident rates generally went down with age until around 64 then they started up again for 65, but the rate at 65 was still lower than the rate at 59. So put 59 at E (0.33/100,000hrs). One could say that the line should be drawn at 59 because the 64 year old pilot is more likely to have an accident that the 63 year old pilot (but still less than the 59 year old). Someone else could say that if 0.33 is a good enough rate for the 59 year old, then it is a good enough rate for the 65 year old.
I think the latter argument makes more sense.
The studies that show the rates higher for pilots over 60 include Part 135 and Part 121 pilots under 60 against Part 135 pilots over 60 without taking into consideration the higher rates 135 pilots have at ANY age than Part 121 pilots.
Your job is to establish an age cutoff to be used by airline pilots. The information you have been given are accident rates among pilots of ALL ages who fly similar types of operations. You notice this trend in accident rates per 100,000 hours among several consecutive age brackets:
A=.38
B=.36
C=.35
D=.34
E=.33
F=.32
G=.31
H=.30
I=.29
J=.30
K=.32
L=.34
M=.36
N=.39
Where would you establish the legal age limit? At E? At I? At L? At N?
A study that did such a comparison found that accident rates generally went down with age until around 64 then they started up again for 65, but the rate at 65 was still lower than the rate at 59. So put 59 at E (0.33/100,000hrs). One could say that the line should be drawn at 59 because the 64 year old pilot is more likely to have an accident that the 63 year old pilot (but still less than the 59 year old). Someone else could say that if 0.33 is a good enough rate for the 59 year old, then it is a good enough rate for the 65 year old.
I think the latter argument makes more sense.
The studies that show the rates higher for pilots over 60 include Part 135 and Part 121 pilots under 60 against Part 135 pilots over 60 without taking into consideration the higher rates 135 pilots have at ANY age than Part 121 pilots.
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