Ta reached at 9e

[WTF-Over]

Facts

The facts are these: 9E had an ASA reset about 2 years ago when joined with XJ as part of the deal. Delta told 9E that they would operate the 200's through 2017. Oops..Delta "changed" their minds. The combined "New" 9E had a good and quick JCBA, its believed that Delta said, "get it done quick, well take care of it later". And they did, (Bankruptcy).
Previous 9E management did under bid a contract to "get a foot in the door". Their total lack of management ability helped send 9E into bankruptcy. The under bidding is history. COMAIR was used as an example to all the Connection carriers.
It does NOT matter whether 9E pilots vote yes or no to this bankruptcy TA. It will be used against all other connection carriers regardless.
Delta will say either, 9E voted no and they are gone along with comair and YOUR next OR 9E voted YES and your next.
This has nothing to do with 9E pilots voting yes or no, it will be used against everyone else no matter what happens at 9E. So stop blaming others and face reality. We are not in section 6, were are in bankruptcy, meaning we have a virtual gun to our heads, and the trigger will be pulled with either outcome. The industry is changing rapidly do to the mergers and accusations.
When 9E finished the JCBA it showed us at the top of the pay scales as of the Dec. 2012 pay increase. Did this effect the rest of the DCI's by bringing up their collective pay rates? NO, it did not. It only put a target on their backs, just like Comair had for years. 9E voting won't effect your contracts because they all ready are effected.

See this post I put up in 2006, it is coming true: http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=75049

 

[gojo]

Morality left this business a long time ago, assuming there ever was any therein.

Not if you listen to Anderson's welcoming speech on the Delta birds.

 

[777forever]

The facts are these: 9E had an ASA reset about 2 years ago when joined with XJ as part of the deal. Delta told 9E that they would operate the 200's through 2017. Oops..Delta "changed" their minds. The combined "New" 9E had a good and quick JCBA, its believed that Delta said, "get it done quick, well take care of it later". And they did, (Bankruptcy).
Previous 9E management did under bid a contract to "get a foot in the door". Their total lack of management ability helped send 9E into bankruptcy. The under bidding is history. COMAIR was used as an example to all the Connection carriers.
It does NOT matter whether 9E pilots vote yes or no to this bankruptcy TA. It will be used against all other connection carriers regardless.
Delta will say either, 9E voted no and they are gone along with comair and YOUR next OR 9E voted YES and your next.
This has nothing to do with 9E pilots voting yes or no, it will be used against everyone else no matter what happens at 9E. So stop blaming others and face reality. We are not in section 6, were are in bankruptcy, meaning we have a virtual gun to our heads, and the trigger will be pulled with either outcome. The industry is changing rapidly do to the mergers and accusations.
When 9E finished the JCBA it showed us at the top of the pay scales as of the Dec. 2012 pay increase. Did this effect the rest of the DCI's by bringing up their collective pay rates? NO, it did not. It only put a target on their backs, just like Comair had for years. 9E voting won't effect your contracts because they all ready are effected.

See this post I put up in 2006, it is coming true: http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=75049

I don't follow when you say if PNCL says no and is gone that Delta will go to XJT/ASA next. What ground will Delta have to stand on for reductions if PNCL is gone? There would only be a few options left and GoJet is about the only cheap one left if they get a 900 program. Even if they do I doubt they have the scale to take on a significant amount of lift. Rumors have Air Wisky getting some DCI flying if PNCL folds and that would only drive up the average rates. On the other hand, if the TA is voted in and there is a rate reset in the other airline's contracts in the near term, it could possibily cause a new race to the bottom.

If you are in the top 40% at PNCL, I understand the desire to vote yes, save your job, and look out for your family. If you are in the bottom 60%, to take a $7 an hr paycut ie $7,000 per year paycut in Jan 2013, then fly the line til you're furloughed sometime in 2014 with $6,000 of your own money given back to you as severance pay is IMO, extremely short sighted because the ramifications of voting in the TA will follow you to your new job. Here why I believe so. One, when you are furloughed there will be 800 less regional jobs available due to 800 senior 9E pilots occupying 81 900 jobs, creating less opportunity for advancement at your new carrier(longer time on reserve, longer upgrade). Secondly, the low payrates and workrules paid to those 800 9E pilots will impact your payrates and workrules at new carrier.

I call on 9E FOs to not take a stand for the industry, but to stand for themselves. The Age 65 rule has stalled our careers enough as it is. Don't fly the line any longer than you have at even lower pay just to save The Mississippi Flying Club folk's jobs just to be furloughed while they clog up a significant chunk of the 800 jobs. Let them go retire, head to the FAA, or contract to teach ground at Delta. Give yourself a chance to advance your career elsewhere.

Vote NO and take your career back!

 

[ASAFOE120]

Well said 777

 

[big shacks]

Vote no and start over after 10 years? I'm not going to another regional, not a option. The atrittion is going to be a huge factor for the next two years...I predict hardly any layoffs. Could be wrong but to start over at another regional...no thanks! Almost two years to get on with United, Delta, HA, US...or any other operation besides a regional...riding this one to the grave.

 

[777forever]

Vote no and start over after 10 years? I'm not going to another regional, not a option. The atrittion is going to be a huge factor for the next two years...I predict hardly any layoffs. Could be wrong but to start over at another regional...no thanks! Almost two years to get on with United, Delta, HA, US...or any other operation besides a regional...riding this one to the grave.

My post wasn't aimed at those with your seniority.

With 10 years seniority you're a Captain and you have much more to gain with a yes vote. You may get downgraded to a $38/hr FO slot but you get a decent signing bonus and flow to the expedited interview. 60% of your coworkers will work for over a year with a $7/hr paycut, then get sent to the street with peanuts and less career advancement opportunities if this TA is voted in. It's not worth the sacrifice for FO's , especially after age 65.

Sent from my HTC One X+ using Tapatalk 2

 

[flyboyike]

Vote no and start over after 10 years?

I started over after almost six years, without ever seeing an upgrade and barely making it off reserve for a little while.

 

[FOrever85]

I don't follow when you say if PNCL says no and is gone that Delta will go to XJT/ASA next. What ground will Delta have to stand on for reductions if PNCL is gone? There would only be a few options left and GoJet is about the only cheap one left if they get a 900 program. Even if they do I doubt they have the scale to take on a significant amount of lift. Rumors have Air Wisky getting some DCI flying if PNCL folds and that would only drive up the average rates. On the other hand, if the TA is voted in and there is a rate reset in the other airline's contracts in the near term, it could possibily cause a new race to the bottom.

If you are in the top 40% at PNCL, I understand the desire to vote yes, save your job, and look out for your family. If you are in the bottom 60%, to take a $7 an hr paycut ie $7,000 per year paycut in Jan 2013, then fly the line til you're furloughed sometime in 2014 with $6,000 of your own money given back to you as severance pay is IMO, extremely short sighted because the ramifications of voting in the TA will follow you to your new job. Here why I believe so. One, when you are furloughed there will be 800 less regional jobs available due to 800 senior 9E pilots occupying 81 900 jobs, creating less opportunity for advancement at your new carrier(longer time on reserve, longer upgrade). Secondly, the low payrates and workrules paid to those 800 9E pilots will impact your payrates and workrules at new carrier.

I call on 9E FOs to not take a stand for the industry, but to stand for themselves. The Age 65 rule has stalled our careers enough as it is. Don't fly the line any longer than you have at even lower pay just to save The Mississippi Flying Club folk's jobs just to be furloughed while they clog up a significant chunk of the 800 jobs. Let them go retire, head to the FAA, or contract to teach ground at Delta. Give yourself a chance to advance your career elsewhere.

Vote NO and take your career back!

There isn't going to be a net increase in jobs wherever they go. Those planes come with the agreement with bombardier to park 50 seaters plane and simple. Those airplanes are going to come with layoffs where ever they go. There isn't going to be growth at the regionals. Quit pretending our FO's are going to have this awesome chance to upgrade and make more money. They aren't.
Delta is in the lead for kicking the crap out of regionals. Untied and Us Air are next.

What about the 222 50 seaters that United is parking?
What happens when United and Delta come after you at the same time?
How many 50 seaters will get parked if American and Us Air merge?

Comair shutting down didn't stop Delta from what they did to us. It is ridiculous to think you are immune.

ASA/Xjt pilots should be glad they aren't getting those planes, because it would be hundreds of your FO's getting laid off not ours.

Until you give date of hire for Pinnacle pilots at your airline, there is no reason we should care about your opinion.

 

[Oakum_Boy]

Who would sign a 7 year agreement with no SnapBack provision. Just because your MEC chair is telling you 'all regionals are screwed' doesn't mean it's the truth. On the other hand, he has to sell you an agreement that would make a janitor cry. Enjoy it.

 

[777forever]

Those 800 jobs are going to go to another regional that is going to park 50 seaters. There isn't going to be growth at the regionals. Quit pretending our FO's are going to have this awesome chance to upgrade and make more money. They aren't.
What about the 222 50 seaters that United is parking?
What happens when United and Delta come after you at the same time?
How many 50 seaters will get parked if American and Us Air merge?

The regionals are getting their ass kicked and we are just the next in line.

Comair shutting down didn't stop Delta from what they did to us. It is ridiculous to think you are immune.

Until you give date of hire for Pinnacle pilots at your airline, there is no reason we should care about your opinion.

You make good points. Worse case scenario, if all the above does happen, which I don't believe it will, 800 extra jobs coming available when you hit the street is better than hitting the street with 800 jobs clogged up by PNCL senior guys at low pay, potentially reducing your earning power at the new job.

Back to your other points, I doubt Delta won't be coming after anyone else for 50 seaters as they will be below the 125 cap. As far as UAL, the XJT 10 year cpa already has a swap built in the contract, calling for 1 for 1 up to 75 large RJs. That will drop the 50 seaters fleet significantly without a loss of jobs.

As for your last point, Comair was wholly owned by DAL, PNCL is bankrupt and financed solely by DAL, virtually wholly owned. Skywest Inc is a public company that has an over 100% return on their stock price in the last 4 months. They have mostly long term FFD contracts, a diverse group of partners, a large economy of scale, and excellent balance sheet. Skywest even owns several of the leases to the gates in ATL that Delta uses. They are not immune to problems, but are in a fantastic position.

Voting No won't necessarily give you an awesome chance to upgrade and make more money, but your odds of doing that is much better voting no than yes

Good luck with your decision.



Sent from my HTC One X+ using Tapatalk 2

 

[amcnd]

I agree a voting no gives you a good shot at a long term job at SKY/ASA/AirW or who ever it may be. In MSP or DTW. A yes vote turns it into "Horizon", (except less pay) long upgrade 10+ years, small company.. No movement... Horizon is great but the never droped 60% off there list...

 

[RJLoser]

Skywest Inc is a public company that has an over 100% return on their stock price in the last 4 months.

Not saying much. They lost more than 50% in the preceding 4-5 months. It just gained the 6 bucks back it lost.

 

[Clutch]

!

Not saying much. They lost more than 50% in the preceding 4-5 months. It just gained the 6 bucks back it lost.

Sweet magic trick, cockerfield!

I like how you made the denigrate company disappear by exposing the legitimate one. Bravo.

 

[RJLoser]

Sweet magic trick, cockerfield!

I like how you made the denigrate company disappear by exposing the legitimate one. Bravo.

Not my point. Skywest is a far better airline. Gotta put more into your thought/comprehension process my man.

 

[XJohXJ]

OK, I'm going to try to be diplomatic here: I am voting "no" on the PNCL TA because I believe that is the best vote for me. I agree that SkyWest is a much better company, and I wish they had been allowed to buy Mesaba rather than PNCL being told that they were going to buy us.

However, isn't it true that SkyWest does not have a pilot contract? Doesn't that mean that on any given day SkyWest management can just present their pilots with a concessionary deal, without any need to go into bankruptcy?

Please don't take offense, I have seen the light and wish I had jumped over to SkyWest years ago, during Mesaba's other bankruptcy. But how is SkyWest not the most vulnerable next player in Delta's race-to-the-bottom game?

Please spare me any talk of rock-solid ASAs with Delta. My eyes have been opened to the fact that no ASA is solid, and there are always ways around them.

On that last note, the next DCI to open a New York base is probably the next to get hit.

 

[777forever]

OK, I'm going to try to be diplomatic here: I am voting "no" on the PNCL TA because I believe that is the best vote for me. I agree that SkyWest is a much better company, and I wish they had been allowed to buy Mesaba rather than PNCL being told that they were going to buy us.

However, isn't it true that SkyWest does not have a pilot contract? Doesn't that mean that on any given day SkyWest management can just present their pilots with a concessionary deal, without any need to go into bankruptcy?

Please don't take offense, I have seen the light and wish I had jumped over to SkyWest years ago, during Mesaba's other bankruptcy. But how is SkyWest not the most vulnerable next player in Delta's race-to-the-bottom game?

Please spare me any talk of rock-solid ASAs with Delta. My eyes have been opened to the fact that no ASA is solid, and there are always ways around them.

On that last note, the next DCI to open a New York base is probably the next to get hit.

Skywest is not as vulnerable because they have a solid balance sheet, mostly long term profitable CPAs that can't be changed without consent, and are not remotely close to bankruptcy.

Sent from my HTC One X+ using Tapatalk 2

 

[General Lee]

Skywest is not as vulnerable because they have a solid balance sheet, mostly long term profitable CPAs that can't be changed without consent, and are not remotely close to bankruptcy.

Sent from my HTC One X+ using Tapatalk 2

The problem is the portfolio. Too many 50 seaters that are looking more and more unattractive to the legacies. The Brasilias also have limited time left until they go off to the likes of Great Lakes etc to be run for even cheaper. SkyWest saw the writing on the wall and like PNCL tried to consolidate to achieve mass, including legacy contracts. At the same time though, the legacies were trying to rid themselves of the gas guzzling 50 seaters, and the mainline pilots were looking to recapture flying in new contracts with the finally "healthy" legacies. It's a perfect storm. Legacies (except AA but that will change with a merger) make more money so no scope changes available through BK, new fatigue and hiring rules, and high gas to prevent starting an "independent" airline. Also, acquiring Xpressjet did give the company mass, but also gave them tons of 50 seaters. Yes, some can be replaced with new 76 seaters for UAL, but many more will have to be parked. Luckily for the pilots, all 3 legacies will be hiring big time within the next 5 years. Good timing.

SkyWest is probably the strongest Regional out there, that is true. But their large amount of 50 seaters and E120s does not make it immune from the whims of mainline CEOs. They are calling the shots, and mainline pilots are willing to recapture some of the flying they lost in the last decade, as seen in both new contracts at DL and UAL.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[budd]

You guys sit here and blame everyone but yourselves! How many of you have sent a ********************k you message to RA? Thats the ********************ker that deserves the race to the bottom messages not the guys making 30 bucks an hour! You play right into the hands of the one percenters! Send RA your messages and quit blaming each other about what alpa and delta are doing to this career! Think about it! General Fucck head and RA want your lives on the unemployment line and you sit here and blame each other about who is at fault.

 

[AntiJedi]

The problem is the portfolio. Too many 50 seaters that are looking more and more unattractive to the legacies. The Brasilias also have limited time left until they go off to the likes of Great Lakes etc to be run for even cheaper. SkyWest saw the writing on the wall and like PNCL tried to consolidate to achieve mass, including legacy contracts. At the same time though, the legacies were trying to rid themselves of the gas guzzling 50 seaters, and the mainline pilots were looking to recapture flying in new contracts with the finally "healthy" legacies. It's a perfect storm.

The older frames are getting pretty close to running out of time anyhow. The old airframes that SkyWest has purchased or leased in the last few years are meant as a lower-rate stop-gap, not as an all-out solution. It's really not much different than the model that Allegiant's been using for a while now.

The next generation of airplanes are the solution, but until then...

Legacies (except AA but that will change with a merger) make more money so no scope changes available through BK, new fatigue and hiring rules, and high gas to prevent starting an "independent" airline.

Since more than likely, US/AA is going to be a hostile takeover type situation, I have a feeling that there's going to be a long while before anything regarding scope is achieved. Hell, the world's still waiting on HP/US.

Also, acquiring Xpressjet did give the company mass, but also gave them tons of 50 seaters. Yes, some can be replaced with new 76 seaters for UAL, but many more will have to be parked. Luckily for the pilots, all 3 legacies will be hiring big time within the next 5 years. Good timing.

The movement of pilots, and retirement of airplanes will have overall no ill effects on SKYW's health. In effect, one can view the upcoming issue as trimming fat and maximizing income without having to declare bankruptcy.

SkyWest is probably the strongest Regional out there, that is true. But their large amount of 50 seaters and E120s does not make it immune from the whims of mainline CEOs. They are calling the shots, and mainline pilots are willing to recapture some of the flying they lost in the last decade, as seen in both new contracts at DL and UAL.

Immune from? No. A lot of leverage against? Yes. You'll see DL going after the Republic Clan and GoJets before they take on the SKYW juggernaut.

 

[budd]

The undersigned employees of ____________________________________ (employer name) do not want to be represented by ____________________________________ (union name).
Should the undersigned employees make up 30% or more (and less than 50%) of the bargaining unit represented by ____________________________________ (union name), the undersigned employees hereby petition the National Labor Relations Board to hold a decertification election to determine whether a majority of employees no longer wish to be represented by this union.
Should the undersigned employees make up 50% or more of the bargaining unit represented by ____________________________________ (union name), the undersigned employees hereby request that ____________________________________ (employer name) withdraw recognition from this union immediately, as it does not enjoy the support of a majority of employees in the bargaining unit.
Signature
Name (Print)
Date

This gives 2% pay back!!! If these guys had your best intrest in mind where is DALPA! The same Union right? DALPA and regional alpa are 2 different unions that claim to support both sides. Argue all you want about who is selling out who and this is the ONLY 2 Answers that are reality!

 

[79%N1]

the problem is the portfolio. Too many 50 seaters that are looking more and more unattractive to the legacies. The brasilias also have limited time left until they go off to the likes of great lakes etc to be run for even cheaper. Skywest saw the writing on the wall and like pncl tried to consolidate to achieve mass, including legacy contracts. At the same time though, the legacies were trying to rid themselves of the gas guzzling 50 seaters, and the mainline pilots were looking to recapture flying in new contracts with the finally "healthy" legacies. It's a perfect storm. Legacies (except aa but that will change with a merger) make more money so no scope changes available through bk, new fatigue and hiring rules, and high gas to prevent starting an "independent" airline. Also, acquiring xpressjet did give the company mass, but also gave them tons of 50 seaters. Yes, some can be replaced with new 76 seaters for ual, but many more will have to be parked. Luckily for the pilots, all 3 legacies will be hiring big time within the next 5 years. Good timing.

Skywest is probably the strongest regional out there, that is true. But their large amount of 50 seaters and e120s does not make it immune from the whims of mainline ceos. They are calling the shots, and mainline pilots are willing to recapture some of the flying they lost in the last decade, as seen in both new contracts at dl and ual.


Bye bye---general lee

the great and powerful general has spoken! You have all been put in your place - you regional loser know nothings! Heed to the all knowing general!!!

 

[General Lee]

You guys sit here and blame everyone but yourselves! How many of you have sent a ********************k you message to RA? Thats the ********************ker that deserves the race to the bottom messages not the guys making 30 bucks an hour! You play right into the hands of the one percenters! Send RA your messages and quit blaming each other about what alpa and delta are doing to this career! Think about it! General Fucck head and RA want your lives on the unemployment line and you sit here and blame each other about who is at fault.

First of all budd, slow it down a bit, relax....I don't want you on the unemployment line, I want you at mainline if you tone it down a bit. I want everyone to have BETTER jobs, and better PAY, and jobs that are BETTER for the industry. We want mainline planes flying to a lot of ciites RJs are flying to now, with RJ pilots flying them at MAINLINE..... Got it? CHILLAX budd....... The 50 seaters do not work well with high gas. Nobody can say that isn't true. Good luck.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

the great and powerful general has spoken! You have all been put in your place - you regional loser know nothings! Heed to the all knowing general!!!

Thanks for the acolades, but everything I stated was true, and if you don't think so, please state it. SkyWest has a lot of 50 seaters, and high oil and 50 seaters don't mix. The mainline CEOs don't seem to like them either it seems. I never called you guys losers, I just stated that a company with a portfolio full of something that is on the way out of an industry is fighting an uphill battle. I honestly hope a lot of you get hired at a legacy and have a better career because of it. Luckily, all 3 legacies will be hiring a lot in the next 5 years. That is good for everyone.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

The older frames are getting pretty close to running out of time anyhow. The old airframes that SkyWest has purchased or leased in the last few years are meant as a lower-rate stop-gap, not as an all-out solution. It's really not much different than the model that Allegiant's been using for a while now.

The next generation of airplanes are the solution, but until then...



Since more than likely, US/AA is going to be a hostile takeover type situation, I have a feeling that there's going to be a long while before anything regarding scope is achieved. Hell, the world's still waiting on HP/US.



The movement of pilots, and retirement of airplanes will have overall no ill effects on SKYW's health. In effect, one can view the upcoming issue as trimming fat and maximizing income without having to declare bankruptcy.




Immune from? No. A lot of leverage against? Yes. You'll see DL going after the Republic Clan and GoJets before they take on the SKYW juggernaut.

First off, thank you for your civil post.

You are right, your CRJ-200s are getting old, but there really is no 50 seat replacement out there. Your airlines invested in 70 and 76 seaters (66 seaters at UAL), and didn't get many "newer" 50 seaters. Even if you did, they still aren't efficient with high oil. You just can't spread out the costs with only 50 pax. When it comes to the turboprops, it doesn't seem like many mainline CEOs like them either, even if they are more efficient than the 50 seat RJs. Where are the ATRs, Dash-8-400s, etc? Not many at all out there, except a handful of Dash-8-400s at Horizon and Republic now. You say the next generation of airplanes is the solution now. Well, mainline scope clauses (recently enforced) won't allow that, and mainline management couldn't disagree, better financial times doesn't allow for scope givebacks instead of pay givebacks. There really were very few givebacks at all.

As far as US/AA goes, I think EVERYONE wants this merger to occur. The sticking point might be outgoing compensation, nobody really knows. The creditors want to know SOON the EXACT cost of the new, combined pilot contract. Apparently the US CEO and the creditor attorney met with USAPA last week to discuss this. Everyone knows the NIC award will be used since it was binding, and since the creditor committee and lawyers are getting involved, that could be a possible reason for that meeting. IOW, they want this thing rolling SOON. Even Bob Crandal had a youtube video done on DEC 22 to talk about the pilot groups getting together and getting the SLI done, or the merger, if it happens, won't be a good one. There is pressure out there to get it done. And, consolidation will only make the remaining airlines stronger, because there will be fewer competitors on the internet screen when buying a ticket.

You are right about trimming the fat when legacy hiring takes away a lot of regional pilots. But we all know training a pilot, especially from a caravan or a light twin to an RJ is not easy. It is costly. Throw in new hiring rules, and those fatigue rules, and regional expenses will rise. Maybe that is one reason mainline CEOs are bringing some of that flying back to mainline.

As far as who the CEOs go after next is up to them, but they are buying the larger RJs and giving the flying to whoever they want. They decide where the planes go, and they could always assign some airline a JFK base and see how the performance goes. What happens if the performance is bad? It's up to them, they decide what happens. It will be interesting to watch over the next few years, for sure.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[AntiJedi]

First off, thank you for your civil post.

Thanks. I have no need or want to lower my bar to get a point across---even if I might be wrong in the end. I only hope for the same in return.

Your airline ... didn't get many "newer" 50 seaters. Even if you did, they still aren't efficient with high oil. You just can't spread out the costs with only 50 pax. When it comes to the turboprops, it doesn't seem like many mainline CEOs like them either, even if they are more efficient than the 50 seat RJs. Where are the ATRs, Dash-8-400s, etc? Not many at all out there, except a handful of Dash-8-400s at Horizon and Republic now.

The problem is the CEO's fears of the public routing away from turboprops for stupid reasons, much like frequent fliers route away from regionals for nearly the same stupid reasons, but they're reasons that the CEO's are willing to listen to. The ATR has a tarnished reputation. The D84 is too large. Mainline CEO's wouldn't be the ones buying them anyhow---and Atkin more than likely wouldn't let them.

You say the next generation of airplanes is the solution now. Well, mainline scope clauses (recently enforced) won't allow that, and mainline management couldn't disagree, better financial times doesn't allow for scope givebacks instead of pay givebacks. There really were very few givebacks at all.

The MRJ-70ER is perfectly within the DL, UA, and now AA scope clauses. However, by ordering the MRJ-90, SKYW is allowing airframe flexibility to meet the needs of scope agreement, but also any future flying needs, without having to shell out more money to include them. The MRJ's are coming, and that's all anyone needs to be concerned about right now.

As far as US/AA goes, I think EVERYONE wants this merger to occur. The sticking point might be outgoing compensation, nobody really knows. The creditors want to know SOON the EXACT cost of the new, combined pilot contract. Apparently the US CEO and the creditor attorney met with USAPA last week to discuss this. Everyone knows the NIC award will be used since it was binding, and since the creditor committee and lawyers are getting involved, that could be a possible reason for that meeting. IOW, they want this thing rolling SOON. Even Bob Crandal had a youtube video done on DEC 22 to talk about the pilot groups getting together and getting the SLI done, or the merger, if it happens, won't be a good one. There is pressure out there to get it done. And, consolidation will only make the remaining airlines stronger, because there will be fewer competitors on the internet screen when buying a ticket.

If there's one thing I understand about the US v. AA culture, the the AA unions are going to do their level best to bring the US unions to their knees, much like US's unions did to HP's unions. I suspect that it's not going to be a pretty merger by any means.

You are right about trimming the fat when legacy hiring takes away a lot of regional pilots. But we all know training a pilot, especially from a caravan or a light twin to an RJ is not easy. It is costly. Throw in new hiring rules, and those fatigue rules, and regional expenses will rise. Maybe that is one reason mainline CEOs are bringing some of that flying back to mainline.

I wouldn't worry about that. The fat trimming will coincide with aircraft reductions, but don't expect Atkin to let his baby suffer too much.

As far as who the CEOs go after next is up to them, but they are buying the larger RJs and giving the flying to whoever they want. They decide where the planes go, and they could always assign some airline a JFK base and see how the performance goes. What happens if the performance is bad? It's up to them, they decide what happens. It will be interesting to watch over the next few years, for sure.

I don't mind DL buying these birds, even if OO does somehow end up flying them at JFK (which is highly unlikely; ) it keeps them off of OO's books---especially since they've already committed to the MRJ so far. One thing's for sure, though, and that's that the JFK regional operation is an absolute joke in execution, from the gate setup, to aircraft movement. One would think that it's UA running the show over there.

 

[General Lee]

Thanks. I have no need or want to lower my bar to get a point across---even if I might be wrong in the end. I only hope for the same in return.



The problem is the CEO's fears of the public routing away from turboprops for stupid reasons, much like frequent fliers route away from regionals for nearly the same stupid reasons, but they're reasons that the CEO's are willing to listen to. The ATR has a tarnished reputation. The D84 is too large. Mainline CEO's wouldn't be the ones buying them anyhow---and Atkin more than likely wouldn't let them.



The MRJ-70ER is perfectly within the DL, UA, and now AA scope clauses. However, by ordering the MRJ-90, SKYW is allowing airframe flexibility to meet the needs of scope agreement, but also any future flying needs, without having to shell out more money to include them. The MRJ's are coming, and that's all anyone needs to be concerned about right now.



If there's one thing I understand about the US v. AA culture, the the AA unions are going to do their level best to bring the US unions to their knees, much like US's unions did to HP's unions. I suspect that it's not going to be a pretty merger by any means.


I wouldn't worry about that. The fat trimming will coincide with aircraft reductions, but don't expect Atkin to let his baby suffer too much.



I don't mind DL buying these birds, even if OO does somehow end up flying them at JFK (which is highly unlikely; ) it keeps them off of OO's books---especially since they've already committed to the MRJ so far. One thing's for sure, though, and that's that the JFK regional operation is an absolute joke in execution, from the gate setup, to aircraft movement. One would think that it's UA running the show over there.

Good post. I agree with a lot of what you say. It appears most legacy CEOs are dumping the props as fast as they can, except UA and US. AA Eagle is dumping the AT7 fleet, and the only props left at DL are the SKW Brasilias, and they may be flying "at risk" flying too. DL dumped the Saabs, and Gulfstream's new operation, "Silver" is picking up the cheaper slack. I expect Great Lakes or Gulfstream "Silver" to take most of them around the Country and be the big wigs in Cheap prop lift in the future, undercutting everyone for the feed, with or without Jerry's permission. That will be left to the people who assign the feed, the mainline CEOs.

As far as the MRJ goes, have you ever seen one? Has one flown? How close are they? I had an FAA mx jumpseat to Nagoya from Honolulu and he had some interesting things to say about that. When investing in an "unproven" product, some people may not be happy with something that really looks good on paper. All I have to say is I hope it turns out great.


You are right about a possible huge mess with AA and US. The infighting between AWA and US has been ridiculous, and the APA sometimes doesn't get along well with others. I think a lot of that has been changed by a BK, no pay raise in 10 years (US and AA), and the creditors breathing down their necks CAN motivate people to do something better. Parker wants to rule the World with a huge AA. The AA pilots don't want BK wages or rules. AWA pilots want out of USAPA. The US East guys are just nuts for turning down the binding NIC award. All together, I think they want something better, and the creditors want their money.


JFK is a tough market. The terminals are getting built, and things will be better eventually. But, it is called "delay--F---K." It is tough on everyone, and the NYC attitude can make everyone cranky. I just try to be overly nice, and they don't like that.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[AntiJedi]

I expect Great Lakes or Gulfstream "Silver" to take most of them around the Country and be the big wigs in Cheap prop lift in the future, undercutting everyone for the feed, with or without Jerry's permission. That will be left to the people who assign the feed, the mainline CEOs.

I think you mis-understand me here.

The mainline execs wouldn't buy props if their customers don't want them. However, they could put out an RFP (or someone offer a pro-rate deal, a la GoJets at SAT) to have the need filled. If Jerry won one of those RFP's, then more than likely he would want as much control of those frames as possible, which whould mean buying/leasing them in SKYW's name for flying should that contract eventually run out. The United née Contintental Q400 deal goes completely against this philosphy.

I'm of belief, though, that if SKYW were to get the DL CR9's carroted to Pinnacle right now, they would be more than happy to deal with not having their name on the lease until the MRJ's start coming online. An acceptable compromise, one might say.

As far as the MRJ goes, have you ever seen one? Has one flown? How close are they? I had an FAA mx jumpseat to Nagoya from Honolulu and he had some interesting things to say about that. When investing in an "unproven" product, some people may not be happy with something that really looks good on paper. All I have to say is I hope it turns out great.

It's still a minimum of 9 months until the first flight, but that shouldn't deter anyone from investing into the product. Heck, how long was the 787 delayed due to extra testing, etc., etc., yet airlines kept throwing their money in. Mitsubishi may not have been in the large aircraft department for the last 30 years, but the Japanese are VERY fickle with making sure things are to spec. Heck, they may actually be erring on the convervative side with their numbers right now.

 

[General Lee]

I think you mis-understand me here.

The mainline execs wouldn't buy props if their customers don't want them. However, they could put out an RFP (or someone offer a pro-rate deal, a la GoJets at SAT) to have the need filled. If Jerry won one of those RFP's, then more than likely he would want as much control of those frames as possible, which whould mean buying/leasing them in SKYW's name for flying should that contract eventually run out. The United née Contintental Q400 deal goes completely against this philosphy.

I'm of belief, though, that if SKYW were to get the DL CR9's carroted to Pinnacle right now, they would be more than happy to deal with not having their name on the lease until the MRJ's start coming online. An acceptable compromise, one might say.



It's still a minimum of 9 months until the first flight, but that shouldn't deter anyone from investing into the product. Heck, how long was the 787 delayed due to extra testing, etc., etc., yet airlines kept throwing their money in. Mitsubishi may not have been in the large aircraft department for the last 30 years, but the Japanese are VERY fickle with making sure things are to spec. Heck, they may actually be erring on the convervative side with their numbers right now.

Just remember, the larger props now count as Jet's in the scope limitations. That wasn't the case before. CAL could have as many DH8-4s as they wanted. Both DL and UA count large props equal to 70 seat jets I believe.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[flyboyike]

You are right about a possible huge mess with AA and US. The infighting between AWA and US has been ridiculous, and the APA sometimes doesn't get along well with others. I think a lot of that has been changed by a BK, no pay raise in 10 years (US and AA), and the creditors breathing down their necks CAN motivate people to do something better. Parker wants to rule the World with a huge AA. The AA pilots don't want BK wages or rules. AWA pilots want out of USAPA. The US East guys are just nuts for turning down the binding NIC award. All together, I think they want something better, and the creditors want their money.

I have a feeling a US/AA merger will turn out to be a bloodbath that will make US/HP look like kindergarten playground squabbles by comparison.

 

[777forever]

I have a feeling a US/AA merger will turn out to be a bloodbath that will make US/HP look like kindergarten playground squabbles by comparison.

If I may politely interject, I may be mistaken but I believe the MaCaskill-Bond legislation prevents a US/HP situation from repeating.



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