Southwest changing it's "stance" in ATL. HMMMMMM

[StopNTSing]

Then why the hell buy AirTran. What an epic failure. AirTran's biggest strength was its ATL fortress, that competed well with Delta. SWA comes in swoops up AirTran with 717s and 737s. It's pretty obvious that SWA was not going to operate the 717 (or anything other than a 737) so that was a waste. Result? All leased out to Delta. Goodbye jobs. Next, the AirTran ATL hub. Result? Reduced now to just a SWA focus city. Goodbye more jobs and ATL hub status. So the net result of this merger was a handful of AirTran 737s and slots at various airports through the country.

Ah, pilots....we've got all the answers.

Other than eliminating a competitor, gaining big access to the ATL through the only practical means left, and a jumpstart for international ops, you're right: we're getting absolutely nothing out of this deal. I didn't want it as much or more than the next pilot, but it is what it is now, and it's not nothing. The synergies are beginning to be realized. The final SWA presence in ATL was NEVER proposed to be anything like the former ATN operation. SWA does not do hubs and consequently does not need to staff for them (IOW, paying people to do a few banks throughout the day and then sit on their duff's in between), so it is unfortunate that the SWA efficiencies bring a reduction in jobs. Also worth noting, however, that not a single employee will be eliminated....they will all be offered other positions, probably at other stations. Still better than a pink slip.

I agree that it was no secret Gary didn't like 717's either. Happily he now actually has an interested taker for an orphaned airframe with very unreliable engines (thanks General!), so he doesn't have to eat the high costs of having a second narrow-body type in his very homogenous fleet until the 717 leases were up. Now that it is all but a done deal that SWA will be obtaining used 737NG's from the world market to make up the fleet deficit, it looks like a win-win for SWA & Delta, and there should be no pilot furloughs.

What a stupid non-beneficial merger (if you can even call it a merger).

No, you can't call it a merger....it's an acquisition.

 

[Flyer1015]

It was supposed to be a merger.

 

[humveedriver]

It's actually an assimilation, where a few remnants of AT's practices and procedures will still be visible.

 

[canyonblue]

It was supposed to be a merger.

If you believe that the British and Americans merged with the Indians, sure, call it what you want. Hell, we'll even let you have a casino in Atlanta.

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

Hell, we'll even let you have a casino in Atlanta.

I bet you would. If the odds are anything like the lottery we won that you operate, the house would never lose. No thanks.

 

[redflyer65]

Say whatever you want about GL and his style on here, but you're an idiot if you're actually interpreting those loads in the way you say you are.

Anything a month from today is going to have lots of open seats.

Are you serious?

Or are you just that clueless?

Are you Hard of Reading or just an idiot?

I said THIS weeks loads are no more than 70% for the entire week.
And not any better going forward for the next month.


Will some seats fill up? Sure. But the initial bookings after this week don't look strong for 7 daily Delta flights from ATL to MCI. Got it?

What does it matter? Just calling BS on the General for saying all flights will be full because he perceives Southwest as losing in ATL. He just likes to fling poo.

It's what he does.

And yes General, we shut down the Skywest and Volaris codeshare. COMPLETELY. Now get in line behind those 6 large RJs for takeoff. Haha.

PS...we just had a DL jumpseater on board and he said the trips across the pond are miserable. We didn't even ask him, he provided the info voluntarily. Said it was way too hard on the body and the family. His opinion I guess. Everyone has one.

 

[slaquer5]

Then I just won a C note. Thanks. I do work a lot, but my smart phone allows me to check in and enjoy FI anywhere, even in Europe. I still go out and enjoy the layovers, but even from my room I can see the fun everyone is having on here. It's not magic. Tell you what, forget the C note to me and go get yourself a smart phone. You're welcome.


Bye Bye---General Lee

So u think ur the only one with a smart phone ?



Sent from iPhone

 

[General Lee]

Are you Hard of Reading or just an idiot?

I said THIS weeks loads are no more than 70% for the entire week.
And not any better going forward for the next month.


Will some seats fill up? Sure. But the initial bookings after this week don't look strong for 7 daily Delta flights from ATL to MCI. Got it?

What does it matter? Just calling BS on the General for saying all flights will be full because he perceives Southwest as losing in ATL. He just likes to fling poo.

It's what he does.

And yes General, we shut down the Skywest and Volaris codeshare. COMPLETELY. Now get in line behind those 6 large RJs for takeoff. Haha.

PS...we just had a DL jumpseater on board and he said the trips across the pond are miserable. We didn't even ask him, he provided the info voluntarily. Said it was way too hard on the body and the family. His opinion I guess. Everyone has one.

Ok, what? Wait one second. This jumpseater was miserable? Why doesn't he bid off to another fleet? It's called VARIETY. We had a bid in April that had new categories in DTW (73N or 737-7/8/9), not to mention a new plane with the 717, Capt and FO seats. He could have EASILY bid off the 7ER or any widebody. (New plane or new category in base (DTW 737) means no seat hold)

Also, if he doesn't like the INTL trips, the 7ER also does a lot of domestic, from one day turns to 4 day domestic trips (ATL doesn't do 5 day domestics like MSP/DTW/SEA). So, he doesn't have to be tired. Also, there are plenty of 3 day Europe trips and 4 day South America trips, not all 12 day trips that may affect family life with small kids.

Red, it's obvious that he was BS'ing you, if it happened at all. Nobody has to fly INTL, and even if he supposedly did, he had a free card to bid the 717 or DTW 737 on the last bid if HE HAD TO GET OFF THE FLEET....(ask Bill Lumberg or Scoot if that is true)

Variety Red, in fleets, routes, and trip types. That's GOOD Red.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

So u think ur the only one with a smart phone ?



Sent from iPhone

Congrats! So, you can see that you too can enjoy FI from ANYWHERE. You can use it in Midland, while I can use mine in Stuttgart. Fantastic!



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[redflyer65]

I like this article about the Delta refinery...

Yet another quarterly loss, to the tune of 22 million, after the loss of 63 million from the previous quarter.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130423-709580.html

and this article looks even worse..

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-01/delta-airlines-got-oil-refinery-math-does-not-work

So how far in the hole is Delta now? Has to be somewhere around 500-600 million at this point, possibly close to 1 Billion. Similiar to buying Comair for 2 BILLION dollars to eventually just wind them down. What did that 2 Billion get the Delta shareholders? Nothing. Could the refinery be the same? Time will tell.

Southwest has looked into this same move for the past 15 years. They never could get the numbers to work out well, so they stayed away.

The jumpseater wasn't BS'ing us Gen. Just his take on it. Said there were too many crossing per month. Didn't sound too good to me, but I'm glad you like it....he didn't.

RF

 

[General Lee]

I like this article about the Delta refinery...

Yet another quarterly loss, to the tune of 22 million, after the loss of 63 million from the previous quarter.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130423-709580.html

and this article looks even worse..

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-01/delta-airlines-got-oil-refinery-math-does-not-work

So how far in the hole is Delta now? Has to be somewhere around 500-600 million at this point, possibly close to 1 Billion. Similiar to buying Comair for 2 BILLION dollars to eventually just wind them down. What did that 2 Billion get the Delta shareholders? Nothing. Could the refinery be the same? Time will tell.

Southwest has looked into this same move for the past 15 years. They never could get the numbers to work out well, so they stayed away.

The jumpseater wasn't BS'ing us Gen. Just his take on it. Said there were too many crossing per month. Didn't sound too good to me, but I'm glad you like it....he didn't.

RF

Red,

If the jump didn't like the number of crossings, he could easily bid domestic trips (on the 767ER--more than half are domestic, and the INTL trips are senior. 3 day trips are really senior, and that is 3 on, 4 off usually---very easy). If he was on a different plane (A330 or 764 etc) he had the chance to bid off for free---new plane (717) or new category in base (737 in DTW) means free bid if you hate multiple crossings.


As far as the refinery goes, there was a loss for Q1. But remember what that CNBC analyst Njarian said, "it cuts out the middle man" and "RA is a genius."

This from the CFO PJ and the President (EB) from the conference call:

"June quarter fuel price of $2.95 to $3 per gallon, including hedge and refinery impact. The refinery produced a $22 million loss for the March quarter which was slightly below our expectations. While operations have since recovered from the impact of unexpected supply disruptions in an outage in a gasoline production unit that slowed output during the quarter, we have since stabilized operations and expect a modest June quarter profit for China. We have also entered into agreements to begin receiving a regular supply of Bakken crude oil in the second half of the year which will lower our crude input cost."


An analyst then asks: "And then just a follow-up, on the Trainer, how much of your fuel needs will be met with the Bakken fuel?"


The CFO (PJ) answers:

"We expect that the agreements that we have right now are roughly about 10% of the total crew diode of the plant. Long term, we're looking to settle out somewhere in the 75,000 to 100,000 barrels a day to build that delivery stream."


Another analyst asks: "And then just on the Bakken crude, can you tell us at this point what you're seeing in terms of transport costs per barrel?"

From the CFO (PJ)

"I'd rather not get into the details of the transaction. It really represents significant savings over the transatlantic barrels that are going to the East Coast."

Another analyst ended the call with :


"So I guess one last question. Are you still glad you bought an oil refinery or has it been more of a headache than you originally envisioned?"

The President (EB) replies:

"Yes, we're glad we bought an oil refinery."


Oh, and btw Red, the CFO also said this about bookings:

"That's what we see in the outlook. Our bookings for this summer look quite solid."


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[StopNTSing]

Re: Trainer. Those quotes weren't very convincing, GL. Your CFO and President sounded VERY defensive.

 

[General Lee]

Re: Trainer. Those quotes weren't very convincing, GL. Your CFO and President sounded VERY defensive.

And your guys weren't "defensive" in their conference call? Analysts are asking you questions the whole time to justify your financial existence. The DL management team was actually very positive throughout. Look up Seeking Alpha Delta Q1 conference call on Google. It's actually very interesting, and encouraging. The DL team is very smart.


This from the CEO (RA) during the call: does it sound defensive?

"Well, let's put it into perspective. This was -- January and February were really strong months. We were top of the industry in relative performance. In the month of March where we saw this weakness, it was the most profitable March in the history of Delta. So putting it in perspective, it shows you that yield management systems and the decisions around yield and inventory are dynamic and are driven by demand factors, external economic factors, pricing in the external environment and global economies. So it's a number of factors that go into it, and we constantly make those kinds of decisions. But I would say that if you look at the track record of Delta for 2 years, we've run a pretty significant year-on-year revenue premium to the industry. So we're pretty -- we're very good at it."



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[StopNTSing]

Nice smokescreen (SWA's conference call) and diversion (RA's quote), none of which are relevant to the issue I raised: The mgmt quotes you chose to include to (supposedly?) bolster your claim that Trainer is/will be a great business move, did nothing to support your position, IMO. That's all.

 

[General Lee]

Nice smokescreen (SWA's conference call) and diversion (RA's quote), none of which are relevant to the issue I raised: The mgmt quotes you chose to include to (supposedly?) bolster your claim that Trainer is/will be a great business move, did nothing to support your position, IMO. That's all.

Smoke screen? I don't think many said it would be profitable right off the bat. The CFO stated some of the problems, like unexpected supply problems that have since been corrected, do arise and have been dealt with. Here is the quote:


"The refinery produced a $22 million loss for the March quarter which was slightly below our expectations. While operations have since recovered from the impact of unexpected supply disruptions in an outage in a gasoline production unit that slowed output during the quarter, we have since stabilized operations and expect a modest June quarter profit for China."

Regardless, there was a loss, and the management thinks it is temporary. CNBC analysts like the plan, and lower Brent prices will more than cover any small temporary losses. Here is another quote:

"The recent drop in Brent crude from $113 to $99 per barrel represents roughly a $1.3 billion annual cost reduction for Delta. We anticipate the lower fuel costs, combined with prudent capacity management, will more than offset any revenue softness. At Delta, we are focused on margin expansion."

I think there are some very smart people watching the refinery, and even on the CNBC segment they stated OIL people are running the refinery. That is important. Let's give it more time to see how it does. Sounds like some management types think it could be profitable soon. If not, DL still saved $1.3 billion due to recent Brent Crude oil price decreases.



Bye Bye---General Lee