Just last month we (the industry) had a new regional capt on a very heavily automated airplane have to make 4 tries to get into an airport.....VFR Wx was clear and 10 miles with light wind and he missed three times before managing to figure out how to get the thing on the ground. The F/O was a newbie.
I think that we are going to start seeing smoking holes unless the industry stops the current hiring practices.
Actually, your not far off the mark. Executing the approach when cleared for a "visual approach" seems to be the most challenging. Most of the new hires and upgrades can fly an ILS or GPS approach, but turn them loose on their own to execute a visual requires planing (3 to 1 rule) and a good approach brief to let the PM know the PF's intentions.
Throw in convective or low IFR weather, fuel management, a possible diversion, and little or no experience as a PIC or new FO...this is what the general public doesn't know.
Fortunately, we don't do NDB appraches anymore. (I thought they were fun and challenging, but I digress). "Back in the day" we had to do them and we trained hard for them, but, wow, I can't imagine... what, trying to explain an RMI and, well, you know what I mean. These guys are task saturated now at 200 KIAS...
A good PM with good situational awareness will recognize when the PF is getting behind, but now, with less experienced crews, we are seeing that both crewmembers are getting behind.
I've seen two CA's blow visual approaches just this this past month because they planned the approach poorly and poorly briefed the PM.
That trend is apparent, and the FAA knows about it. So do the Flight departments. However, this is where we are as an industry. Payscales are so low that not many are interested in a career in aviation after laying out $30K-100K to get a 4 year degree.
The airline I work for is hiring CFI/II's and Commercial Pilots right out of flight schools and college and FBO's. The major carriers will hire from the regionals to get the experience they need, which will continue to strain regional carriers to find competent pilots.
The $$$ carriers are now offshore, and they have some extensive hoops to jump through to get hired. Ask anyone interviewing at Emirates right now and ask them about licence conversion and expat country requirements.
India Operators are looking for US pilots and so is China...but there are strings attached. Be sure to get your shots and take your anti-malaria prophylactic.:erm:
This is the cycle we are in.
T8