Polar Air Cargo, 30 days out from possible strike.

[KeroseneSnorter]

Revenue doesn't mean much if your expenses are greater than what you take in.

This is what you should be focusing on:

"The reallocation of capacity out of Scheduled Service and into ACMI operations had a beneficial impact on direct operating expenses during the quarter, including ground handling, landing and overfly fees. Total fuel consumption declined by approximately 13%, reflecting a roughly 13% reduction in non-ACMI block hours. The reduction in consumption was more than offset by a 44% increase in average fuel prices. The net impact was a 25% increase in fuel expense."

"We expect to continue to optimize capacity allocations among our service types."

WAKE UP!!

Just got done jogging here so these numbers are VERY rough figures done while trying to not drip sweat on the keyboad!!

Taking the quarter revenue numbers and looking at A/C numbers using only the ACMI and Scheduled data, leaving out Military and charter.

Polar 12 airplanes brought in roughly 9.75 million per airplane for the quarter.
Atlas's 30 birds brought it roughly 2.1 million per airplane for the same time.

Leaving out the difference in crew costs and total crew numbers (Hourly, and diff in total pilots on the list that makes Atlas costs higher) that leaves us with a difference of 7.65 million that each Polar bird made more than a corresponding Atlas bird. Now either that fuel is costing Polar 7+ million a quarter PER AIRPLANE, or AAWWH is playing with the numbers to show Polars "loss".

Given that there are 2184 hours per quarter and at an average fuel burn of 3500 Gal an hour that would mean that the Polar birds flew 1092 hours per airplane at 2 bucks a gallon to burn up the 7.65 mil difference. That means 12 hours a day, EVERY day for the entire quarter. Given that this is very unlikely due to maint. and other factors. Especially since we are not factoring in Military and Charter flights that Polar does. Also fuel last year was only around 1.80 to 1.90 a gallon, this year they have been adding fuel surcharges to the freight.

So where did all that money go? I would say a good portion went to mgmt. and funneled into the Atlas "profits"

Like I said very rough, but if you continue the process it will probably hold constant no matter how detailed you get.

 

[V1andgo]

-300
AAWH has a diversified portfolio and money can and is made in all segments of the cargo business, if it is managed right. The argument that fuel is the determining factor in crew compensation is flawed. How much of a pay cut would be required to compensate for the current oil prizes? Other operator with much higher crew costs fly freight in the same market with high fuel costs, and still make profits. If AAWH wants to shift more of its assets into ACMI so be it. Those are decisions made above our pay grade. So I hope!!!
So what is it to you, when the Polar Crew members are on a strike?
Why do you try so hard to make a business argument about a matter that has nothing to do with you?

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

The thing with using the company numbers to show profit and loss is that there is no way to verify their conclusions.

I would bet if Polar survives to be around for the Atlas negotiations all of the sudden Polar will be making gobs of money and Atlas will be the ones losing it. The company is no fool, they will work the money to show a loss against whoever they need to for negotiating purposes.

Bottom line is that Polar accounts for at least 50% of the revenue using only 12 airplanes, less than half of what the current Atlas fleet is.

Take it a step further and figure in what each airplane is costing (neighborhood of 1 mil. a month for the 400's and 500,000 a month for the 200's) just to keep them on the property and the companies figures start looking more and more suspect. Additionally some of the "Polar" airplanes are leased FROM Atlas, so money that Polar is "paying" really is not going anywhere except into the Atlas "Profit" Also some Polar assets are currently being leased to other companies. Kalitta and Tradewinds operate some of the old Polar 100's. My understanding is that these are leases to them, if so, is the money coming in from the leases shown as Polar income, or Atlas income?

There are so many ways to manipulate the numbers that anything can be shown in 10 different ways to justify the company position. Revenue becomes the one deciding factor that cannot be "worked" to the companies advantage.

 

[CSY Mon]

Tradewinds operate some of the old Polar 100's

Negative, Tradewinds operates only 747-200s, J and Q power.

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

Negative, Tradewinds operates only 747-200s, J and Q power.

Was told that one of the Tradwinds birds was ex Polar, I know they got rid of a few 200's after the buyout, so you may have one of those.

 

[CSY Mon]

Yeah, I think one is ex-Polar..it is also ex-Tower Air...Flew it over there.

N-922FT..I think that is the one.

 

[furloughfodder]

POLAR STRUCK WORK INSTRUCTIONS FOR ATLAS AIR

1. AMC cargo and Hurricane Katrina relief missions ARE NOT struck work.

2. DO NOT CROSS A POLAR PICKET LINE.

3. Operate Atlas Air aircraft only.

4. If you are assigned a flight with a Polar call sign (call the Atlas Air MEC Hotline, 1-800-XXX-XXXX, immediately), it is considered struck work and should not be flown. If you can not reach the MEC via any means, operate the flight and call ASAP at your destination.

5. Upon arrival at the aircraft check for any identifying Polar labels or Polar tags attached to cargo [note: a Polar pallet alone (cookie sheets) does not necessarily constitute Polar cargo]. If you find Polar cargo, request that it be removed. If, you are unable to have this cargo removed, call the Atlas Air MEC hotline immediately. Do not carry Polar cargo.

6. Check the cargo documents onboard the aircraft before departure, review the Air Cargo Manifest and check the “Master Airway Bill” for any evidence that the cargo is consigned to Polar Air Cargo (Polar is assigned Master Airway Bill IATA Code #403). If you find Polar cargo, request that it be removed. If you are unable to have this cargo removed, call the Atlas Air MEC hotline immediately. Do not carry Polar cargo.

If you have any doubts whatsoever, call the Atlas Air MEC Hotline, 1-800-XXX-XXXX, by any means available [cell, landline, HF phone patch (a Stockholm Radio account is established) collect calling etc; you will be reimbursed for any expenses associated with these calls]. If you can not reach the MEC via any means, operate the flight and call ASAP at your destination.

 

[furloughfodder]

I have a funny feeling that #2 in the above post is being ignored by our friend -300.

 

[Xfr8dog]

So Polar has 12 planes and Atlas has 30. How many pilots does each group have?

I was curious the other day (not that this has anything to do with the above post) but anyone have an estimate on how many current and qualified 747 pilots there are in the world? Someone guessed 5000 and that seems about right...


Oh also Kalitta owns all of thier planes outright they do not lease from anyone.

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

So Polar has 12 planes and Atlas has 30. How many pilots does each group have?

Polar is right around 350 prior to the firing of the newbies

Atlas is around 700.