Pilot shortage

[ASA_Aviator]

Now, please explain to the class how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline level represents a shortage throughout the industry. If you look real hard, you'll realize you've already addressed this:

Look, my point ONLY is that there will be a shortage at the regional level. I'm not talking about DAL. I'm not talking about UPS. They won't have a shortage any time soon because we are fully staffed, and they get their pilots from us.

Rather, regionals WILL have a shortage because we get pilots from flight schools, and flight schools are WAY down in enrollments.


That all being said, I just spoke with a flight ops manager at Delta the other day, and they are very carefully watching our hiring situation and "shortage" situation, because an "interruption in our pilot supply chain equals an eventual interruption in theirs." Take that how you will, as it is nearly verbatim.

 

[BoilerUP]

You're an idiot.

If I were an idiot then it should be pretty simple to explain to all of us how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline (i.e. lowest paying, worst QOL) level represents a true lack of pilots throughout the industry.

We're waiting.

 

[Tarzan]

Fairly easy to understand in my humble opinion. With no one in the pipeline or very little, when the 1500 hour rule becomes law and the Baby Boomer crowd starts to leave again, there will be a loud sucking noise that will be the pilots at the regionals leaving for the legacy carriers. The seat miles will still be there. Without pilots to fly those at the regional level, the flying will be forced back to the legacy carrier.

I believe the legacy carriers will be able to fill their ranks but the basic business model will change drastically in five years of how regionals fill the now. The basic idea of supply and demand will lead to higher wages to attract the pilots needed by regional will eventually make it impossible for the regional to be an economically viable alternative.

Either that or ab intio becomes the norm until there is an adequate supply to can it. It will be a shortage but the seats will be filled one way or another.

 

[pilotyip]

only time will tell

Fairly easy to understand in my humble opinion. With no one in the pipeline or very little, when the 1500 hour rule becomes law and the Baby Boomer crowd starts to leave again, there will be a loud sucking noise that will be the pilots at the regionals leaving for the legacy carriers. The seat miles will still be there. Without pilots to fly those at the regional level, the flying will be forced back to the legacy carrier.

I believe the legacy carriers will be able to fill their ranks but the basic business model will change drastically in five years of how regionals fill the now. The basic idea of supply and demand will lead to higher wages to attract the pilots needed by regional will eventually make it impossible for the regional to be an economically viable alternative.

Either that or ab intio becomes the norm until there is an adequate supply to can it. It will be a shortage but the seats will be filled one way or another.

only time will tell how this will play out. If a shortage does develope then pay may have to go up to fill the seats. If pay goes up, then tickets prices have to go up, equal less riders, less flights and a need for not a many pilots. The market will balance the need between pilots and ticket prices. In the end consumer will dictate pay in the airlines, not unions, not management, not gov't, but the guy who buys a ticket

 

[Smarta$$]

only time will tell how this will play out. If a shortage does develope then pay may have to go up to fill the seats. If pay goes up, then tickets prices have to go up, equal less riders, less flights and a need for not a many pilots. The market will balance the need between pilots and ticket prices. In the end consumer will dictate pay in the airlines, not unions, not management, not gov't, but the guy who buys a ticket

This is all bull crap. 2 dollars per ticket, paid in pilot compensation, would have a truely dramatic increase in regional pilot pay. It is not that regional airlines can't afford to pay us better.

 

[imacdog]

Without pilots to fly those at the regional level, the flying will be forced back to the legacy carrier.

....but they will be there. Do you realize how many pilots are flying professionaly at companies other than the regionals, and are waiting for their chance to get a job there?

 

[pilotyip]

you may be right

This is all bull crap. 2 dollars per ticket, paid in pilot compensation, would have a truely dramatic increase in regional pilot pay. It is not that regional airlines can't afford to pay us better.

only time will tell, I know people change airlines for $1 difference right now, so $2 might make or break it in empty seats

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

We get yip. Everything else in our life goes up but pilot salaries and airline fares just can't. Every year my home owners insurance goes up (+10% for 2010), food prices, gas prices, dry cleaners, gym membership, home alarm, Mexican dude mowing the yard, water bill, postage, medical insurance, direct tv, cell phones, pool chemicals, beer, property taxes and most of all, management pay and perks. As far as people you know changing airlines for $1, I don't believe that one bit especially if it involves connecting or less convenient times. I would say $20-$30 each way may get someone to consider a connection vs nonstop. Even then most people that I know are not that cheap.

only time will tell, I know people change airlines for $1 difference right now, so $2 might make or break it in empty seats

 

[Flyerdan]

If I were an idiot then it should be pretty simple to explain to all of us how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline (i.e. lowest paying, worst QOL) level represents a true lack of pilots throughout the industry.

We're waiting.

I don't want to turn up the heat on this issue but I really don't understand your position here.

It seems accurate to say that there are fewer pilot candidates in the training/experience pipeline to fill what is expected to be an increasing number of pilot positions when the economy improves.

 

[imacdog]

I don't want to turn up the heat on this issue but I really don't understand your position here.

It seems accurate to say that there are fewer pilot candidates in the training/experience pipeline to fill what is expected to be an increasing number of pilot positions when the economy improves.

When the economy does improve, there will be plenty of experienced pilots available to join the regionals. As those pilots go to the regionals and people see success stories in aviation, and an ad or two from Kit Darby, they will begin to go back to the flight schools. A couple years of training and instructing and they're at 1500 hours. Thus, the cycle of life continues.

 

[jmreii]

While everyone waits for the tooth fairy, I will continue picking money off the trees that line the roadway.

 

[pilotyip]

answers

We get yip. Everything else in our life goes up but pilot salaries and airline fares just can't. Every year my home owners insurance goes up (+10% for 2010), food prices, gas prices, dry cleaners, gym membership, home alarm, Mexican dude mowing the yard, water bill, postage, medical insurance, direct tv, cell phones, pool chemicals, beer, property taxes and most of all, management pay and perks. As far as people you know changing airlines for $1, I don't believe that one bit especially if it involves connecting or less convenient times. I would say $20-$30 each way may get someone to consider a connection vs nonstop. Even then most people that I know are not that cheap.

Sounds like you have all the answers, you should start an airline, make it the greatest place to work in the aviation business. Screw those consumers, what do they know about anything, force them to pay more to make pilots happy. That will show them.

 

[imacdog]

Sounds like you have all the answers, you should start an airline, make it the greatest place to work in the aviation business. Screw those consumers, what do they know about anything, force them to pay more to make pilots happy. That will show them.

Better tell that to the Southwest pilots who make very respectable wages, have high job satisfaction, and work for one of the most successul companies in aviation. Go ahead YIP, head on over to the majors board and give it a shot. I'm sure they're dying to hear from you.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Yip,

Do you have a reading comprehension problem? Almost EVERYTHING in our lives goes up. That is a fact of life. It is not screwing the consumer, it is just the cost of doing business. So, of all the items I listed in my previous post they are all screwing the consumer? I can still shop around and maybe get a better deal, but it is still going to be more than 5 or 10 years ago. What is your problem with pilots making a good wage? It is almost as if you want pilot salaries to stagnate or fall because your career did not pan out as hoped. My current hourly rate at Dal is 76 cents less per hour than the same equipment/seat in 1992. 17 YEARS AGO. Do you think the consumer has been getting a good deal or ripped off? 3-5 dollar increase will not drive passengers in a meaningful way. I don't have all the answers, never claimed to. However your only answer is pilots should be giddy to get to fly a plane and never, ever consider to expect an increase in compensation to at least keep up with the cost of living. With your line of thinking we would never get a raise and fall further and further behind so eventually the only thing we can afford is a one bedroom apt. and 10-15 year old beater car. Thanks but no thanks. I expect better, and I believe most other pilots do to. The last 10 years was a once in a lifetime reset of our compensation structure and it is time to rebuild.

Sounds like you have all the answers, you should start an airline, make it the greatest place to work in the aviation business. Screw those consumers, what do they know about anything, force them to pay more to make pilots happy. That will show them.

 

[pilotyip]

Profits

Better tell that to the Southwest pilots who make very respectable wages, have high job satisfaction, and work for one of the most successul companies in aviation. Go ahead YIP, head on over to the majors board and give it a shot. I'm sure they're dying to hear from you.

It is all about profits, SWA has them that makes it a nice place to work. If an airline does not have profits they can not be like SWA. An airline has to raises fares or cut costs to remain profitable, all I have posted is only time well how a shortage of pilots will effect pilot's wages. I have predicted that the market driven by the consumer's spending will dictate airline wages.

 

[livin'thesim]

It is about the pilot supply. If there were less pilots, they would have to pay us more.

During this most recent boom, many regionals were forced to lower their upgrade minimums. Or were they? Couldn't they have just paid more for higher experience pilots? Of course, but we all know what happened.

If 4000 hours used to be required, why is 2000 suddenly okay?

The market finds its own level. The reason pilots are paid what they are is because there are pilots who accept a job for that rate of pay.

This is not difficult.

Regardless of what one THINKS they should make, if there is someone willing to work for less, they may not get the job at their expected higher rate.

 

[bizjet800]

Let's say there is a shortage, does anyone have a problem with that?

 

[Flyby1206]

Regional carriers grew over the past decade because they received scope exceptions from mainline carriers and could operate a mainline route with much lower operating costs.

IF there was a lack of applicants at the regional level it wouldnt be financially beneficial to raise pay to attract pilots. Raising pay would in turn make many regional routes unprofitable, and not logical (reducing the need for pilots).

RATHER, the regional carriers will hire as many pilots at low wages as possible as long as mainline unions trade scope concessions for pay raises. If scope stays the same, then regionals will hire for attrition, and when there are no applicants they will shrink the carrier to maintain a constant level of operating cost.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

If I were an idiot then it should be pretty simple to explain to all of us how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline (i.e. lowest paying, worst QOL) level represents a true lack of pilots throughout the industry.

We're waiting.

Read the post immediately prior to your last one. I'm not talking about a shortage of pilots industry-wide. I'm talking about a shortage of pilots in the training pipeline, and thus a shortage at the regional level. I don't give a crap if there is a shortage at the majors (There won't be because there are plenty of starry eyed captains at the regionals dying to get there.) I'm not planning to go to a major. I just don't want to be at the regional that can't staff its airline, because eventually that airline is going to lose business.

As someone else said, there will be a huge sucking sound when the majors start hiring again. The regionals will not be able to hire enough once the furloughed pilots are rehired, and all of the instructors are hired away from the flight schools. 1.5 years after the hiring begins, the regionals are going to be hurting badly.

I'm not talking about the whole industry.
I'm not talking about the whole industry.

(I had said that a few times already, so hopefully your reading comprehension is a little better this time around.)

 

[imacdog]

ASA, I'm just not sure how you don't understand that once hiring picks up, so will the training pipeline. It really isn't that difficult of a concept.