Pilot shortage

[imacdog]

It is all about profits, SWA has them that makes it a nice place to work. If an airline does not have profits they can not be like SWA. An airline has to raises fares or cut costs to remain profitable, all I have posted is only time well how a shortage of pilots will effect pilot's wages. I have predicted that the market driven by the consumer's spending will dictate airline wages.

So what you're saying is if a company is properly run, then paying pilots what they truly deserve won't be a problem. All you do is argue that the public won't pay more for higher paid pilots, yet they are quite happy to fly on Southwest. Go figure.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

ASA, I'm just not sure how you don't understand that once hiring picks up, so will the training pipeline. It really isn't that difficult of a concept.

Sure...and with the new regs on the way, the pipeline goes from 1-2 years, to 2-3 years. But, the pipeline ALWAYS lags, and the shortage will be worse this time than it was in 2007 due to the magnitude of the lack of people in training.

Whatever. It doesn't really matter what you people think, or what any of us think for that matter. It is just going to suck. Enjoy the conversation, I'm out.

 

[pilotyip]

Not ture

So what you're saying is if a company is properly run, then paying pilots what they truly deserve won't be a problem. All you do is argue that the public won't pay more for higher paid pilots, yet they are quite happy to fly on Southwest. Go figure.

SWA is not the low cost provider, planning 2-3 weels in advance you can beat SWA on most routes. Last spring under pressure to produce a profit they rasied all advance fares by around double, they saw such a drop off in advance bookings that the prices had to come back down in a month to the old levels. People with spare time, school teachers in the summer, retired people, etc book in advance based almost solely on price alone. If SWA is not low they don't get that marginal flyer. If the marginal flyer does not fly that empty seat on Tuesday produces no revenue.

 

[imacdog]

SWA is not the low cost provider, planning 2-3 weels in advance you can beat SWA on most routes. Last spring under pressure to produce a profit they rasied all advance fares by around double, they saw such a drop off in advance bookings that the prices had to come back down in a month to the old levels. People with spare time, school teachers in the summer, retired people, etc book in advance based almost solely on price alone. If SWA is not low they don't get that marginal flyer. If the marginal flyer does not fly that empty seat on Tuesday produces no revenue.

So what? SWA makes money and pays their pilots well. How can this happen in the world of YIP (aka fantasy land)?

 

[imacdog]

Whatever. It doesn't really matter what you people think, or what any of us think for that matter. It is just going to suck. Enjoy the conversation, I'm out.

Interesting argument. "I think you guys are wrong, therefore I'm right and am leaving the conversation". I never thought of using that one, thanks though.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Interesting argument. "I think you guys are wrong, therefore I'm right and am leaving the conversation". I never thought of using that one, thanks though.

At some point, you have to quit banging your head against the wall. There is no way to get through to you, other than for you to see what happens when the majors hire again. So, we will see who is correct then. Why do you want to keep beating the horse? Isn't it dead enough?

 

[imacdog]

I wouldn't consider bringing facts, figures, and scenarios into the discussion as beating a dead horse. More like good debate. The silly part would be not bringing any argument at all to a particular side other than saying the sky will be falling soon, then refusing to engage in the conversation and bowing out. Sound familiar?

 

[Metro752]

The LCCs are going to consolidate some more, and squeeze the life out of their smaller competitors that refuse to assimilate.

Either that or big tree fall hard.

 

[Flightdawg]

Airlines: Some Costs They Can't - And Shouldn't - Cut

Note the cost differences between airlines: http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/10/30/200059-125693844083879-Robert-Herbst.png

 

[pilotyip]

Back to square one

So what? SWA makes money and pays their pilots well. How can this happen in the world of YIP (aka fantasy land)?

As stated many posts ago, SWA pays its pilots well because it is profitable, they have unique business model that gives them one of the lowest CSM in the business. Although because of wages, as shown above, that CSM is under tremendous pressure and as stated above they are no longer the low cost carrier because of their higher labor costs. Fed Ex and UPS pay there pilot well because they are profitable. Airlines that are not profitable can not afford to pay as well. There is no fantasy there. Now if you have the answers to make manage an airline and make it profitable in order to pay the pilots more then it is your duty to leave the cockpit and come into management and make the world better for all your brother pilots. But we wouldn't like to deal with that fantasy would we. Talking of going back to square one, only time will tell how the new 1500 mins will effect pay and the airline industry. BTW you can get a free subscription to Air Transport World, ATW and get some great reading on how airlines are managed.