Pilot shortage

[the palm]

The pilot shortage is for real and it is happening right now. I know this because to date I haven't received a single application to the airline I'm starting.

 

[bizjet800]

The pilot shortage is for real and it is happening right now. I know this because to date I haven't received a single application to the airline I'm starting.

Do tell!

 

[pilotyip]

Hey listen up!

Yep, that's the reality. Kind of a stark contrast to this pilot shortage bullcrap you push every now and then, isn't it?

You know there is no such thing as a pilot shortage, Avbug has firmly established that. However there pilot hiring booms and busts, the next boom is coming in 2011 and will accelerate in 2012. How do I know we are starting to hire and we normally do that a couple years in advance of everyone else.

 

[20sx]

I agree, there will be a shortage. I just don't get why you think it will start in 2011. Pilots don't hit 65 until at least December of 2012! (lets just call it 2013) Then, most of the majors have to hire back the furloughed. I wouldn't think there would be a need for new hires until at least mid 2013.

 

[Flightdawg]

I agree, there will be a shortage. I just don't get why you think it will start in 2011. Pilots don't hit 65 until at least December of 2012! (lets just call it 2013) Then, most of the majors have to hire back the furloughed. I wouldn't think there would be a need for new hires until at least mid 2013.

Several flaws in your logic here.

1. You are assuming all or most pilots want to fly until age 65. Most want to retire by 62-63.

2. You are assuming all or most pilots can hold a First Class medical until age 65. Most will not. Whatever problem they have doesn't have to affect their quality of life, but it will stop them from flying as a Captain for a Part 121 operation.

3. Most furloughs have found other jobs. Those furloughed after 9/11 already have 8 years of seniority. Delta's last recall rate was 1 out of 14. American's was 1 out of 10. The longer those pilots are furloughed, the less likely they'll give up their current jobs to become furlough fodder on reserve in some ****hole airport. Unlike some people on this forum, those furloughed pilots realize that flying a big shiny jet doesn't always pay the bills nor is it all it's cracked up to be.

4. You are assuming the legacies will hire into their vacancies. Expect them to downsize their domestic operations in favor of code-shares and contract feed. Eventually they will grow again, but not anytime in the next 5-10 years.

 

[20sx]

A lot of people would like to retire young, but they can't because of the degradation of their 401K, not to mention lack of pensions.

If they lose their 1st, can't they go back to being an FO. FO wages for long term employees at the majors still aren't so bad (compared to NO wages).

I didn't realize the recall rate was so bad. Does that take into account the amount that are temporarily bypassing recall? Still, wow!

I do think there will be some downsizing, but I don't think contract feed will grow. There does seem to by some international growth, which with the higher crew utilization would hopefully counteract the domestic shrinkage (ala Delta).

OR, maybe I'm just a glass half full guy I try to be realistic in outlook, but it's kind of a guessing game when it comes to airlines.

 

[motch]

FlightDawg hit the nail on the head...

There is not now, nor will there be a pilot shortage anytime soon.
What there will be, is a shortage of pilots willing to accept jobs at low salaries and poor quality of life.

There will always be qualified pilots out there.. ie ATP holders, Military (Guard and Reserve/Active Duty retiring) pilots and furloughees, that can fill the right seat. But will they accept working for less than a fast food employee? That is to be seen.

motch

 

[Dumb Pilot]

The military seems to be very willing to go to unmanned aerial vehicles, I don't think the military will produce that many pilots in the future. You might be correct for the next five years but the next 20? I'm not too sure

 

[motch]

For the next 5 to 10 years, there will still be Active Duty pilots retiring who are -130, -17, -5, -135 and -10 pilots. On top of that, you have Guard and reserve pilots going through UPT and flying those aircraft too.

20 years, who knows? At that point we could see high speed rail service replacing the RJ flying that is so popular here in the states~

But for today, and the foreseeable future... there is no pilot shortage.

motch

 

[Flightdawg]

A lot of people would like to retire young, but they can't because of the degradation of their 401K, not to mention lack of pensions.

Some will, but as pointed out, some still want out or won't have a choice. Like myself, most have based their retirement plans on age 60. The fact we now have the 65 option is nice, but many are tired of the commuting, being away or simply of dealing with the entire business. Time will tell, but I think you will see the trend will bear out the information I passed along.

I didn't realize the recall rate was so bad. Does that take into account the amount that are temporarily bypassing recall? Still, wow!

No, asked when they'd come back many deferred giving an answer. It makes sense to defer. Why burn a bridge when you don't have to? When asked, most are comfortable where they are. Two people I personally know are now Captains at JetBlue. Should they give this up to be a reserve FO on the MD80 in LaGuardia?

OR, maybe I'm just a glass half full guy I try to be realistic in outlook, but it's kind of a guessing game when it comes to airlines.

It's good to optimistic. I try to be a glass half full guy myself. However, there's a difference between being optimistic and simply wearing rose colored glasses. It's important to be realistic.

Ever since the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, this industry has been evolving just as other industries did after deregulation. While some pilots like to blame other pilots for either being bottom feeders or not holding the line, the fact remains this business is changing regardless what they do. Like ALPA and age 65, we can either stand aside and rant or become involved and attempt to mitigate the negative impact of these changes on pilots.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

FlightDawg hit the nail on the head...

There is not now, nor will there be a pilot shortage anytime soon.
What there will be, is a shortage of pilots willing to accept jobs at low salaries and poor quality of life.

There will always be qualified pilots out there.. ie ATP holders, Military (Guard and Reserve/Active Duty retiring) pilots and furloughees, that can fill the right seat. But will they accept working for less than a fast food employee? That is to be seen.

motch

Again, a shortage due to lack of pilots or a shortage due to people not wanting to work as pilots equals the same thing, a shortage. This isn't rocket science.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantics

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Dawg,

I agree with 1-3 but adamantly disagree with 4. The 50 seat and less rjs are being reduced in a big way and the 70-76 seaters will have caps. After the gang-raping the legacies took since 2001 I don't see anyone allowing more outsourcing. After what the legacy pilots have seen with the outsourcing to date, don't expect anymore. If anything maybe bringing some of the small jet flying back. Now everyone has a price. If the company came to the union and offered Dal/Ual 2000-2001 rates adjusted for inflation + restoring the DB plan + with a lump sum option on the DB plan, full retro pay, etc. Maybe, just maybe we might concede more scope. This has about as much likelihood happening as #4.

Several flaws in your logic here.

1. You are assuming all or most pilots want to fly until age 65. Most want to retire by 62-63.

2. You are assuming all or most pilots can hold a First Class medical until age 65. Most will not. Whatever problem they have doesn't have to affect their quality of life, but it will stop them from flying as a Captain for a Part 121 operation.

3. Most furloughs have found other jobs. Those furloughed after 9/11 already have 8 years of seniority. Delta's last recall rate was 1 out of 14. American's was 1 out of 10. The longer those pilots are furloughed, the less likely they'll give up their current jobs to become furlough fodder on reserve in some ****hole airport. Unlike some people on this forum, those furloughed pilots realize that flying a big shiny jet doesn't always pay the bills nor is it all it's cracked up to be.

4. You are assuming the legacies will hire into their vacancies. Expect them to downsize their domestic operations in favor of code-shares and contract feed. Eventually they will grow again, but not anytime in the next 5-10 years.

 

[wmuflyguy]

Several flaws in your logic here.

1. You are assuming all or most pilots want to fly until age 65. Most want to retire by 62-63.

2. You are assuming all or most pilots can hold a First Class medical until age 65. Most will not. Whatever problem they have doesn't have to affect their quality of life, but it will stop them from flying as a Captain for a Part 121 operation.

3. Most furloughs have found other jobs. Those furloughed after 9/11 already have 8 years of seniority. Delta's last recall rate was 1 out of 14. American's was 1 out of 10. The longer those pilots are furloughed, the less likely they'll give up their current jobs to become furlough fodder on reserve in some ****hole airport. Unlike some people on this forum, those furloughed pilots realize that flying a big shiny jet doesn't always pay the bills nor is it all it's cracked up to be.

4. You are assuming the legacies will hire into their vacancies. Expect them to downsize their domestic operations in favor of code-shares and contract feed. Eventually they will grow again, but not anytime in the next 5-10 years.

Also flaws in your logic. You are assuming a lot of things(1,2 and 4 are all assumptions) in your predictions.

 

[Flightdawg]

Also flaws in your logic. You are assuming a lot of things(1,2 and 4 are all assumptions) in your predictions.

Don't believe me then. Keep that half glass empty, but my data for 1-3 is based on airline surveys from various ALPA carriers. If there is a flaw, it's that the pilots responding were either lying or will change their minds. Current trends show the data is valid.

On #4, it's the trend. The legacies are withdrawing from the domestic market and outsourcing the feed to other airlines. How much they will withdraw varies with the airline in question. While many here want to blame the current trend on 9/11 and have hope the trend will reverse, others think 9/11 didn't change the industry as much as it sped up the inevitable. We're seeing trends now that wouldn't have been seen until 2015 or later if 9/11 hadn't happened.

No matter whether you believe me or not, it will be clear over the next 5 years exactly what is happening in all four cases mentioned. You won't have to take my or anyone elses word for it. You will see it with your own eyes.

 

[Flightdawg]

The 50 seat and less rjs are being reduced in a big way and the 70-76 seaters will have caps. After the gang-raping the legacies took since 2001 I don't see anyone allowing more outsourcing.

Hope is a good thing and I hope you are right, but the world is changing under our feet. Next up is cabotage. It's a global airline market. As the linked article mentions, the effect of Airline Deregulation are still being felt. It's not over yet.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Comair is going to recall a bunch of pilots soon. Compass was told to gear up their hiring. Other airlines have started recalling and/or hiring.

At DAL, EVERYONE has been recalled. They only guys still are are on bypass from recall (they can come back later...military commitments, basically).

cliff
NBO

 

[no1pilot2000]

Current and former regional pilots....

Do you prefer RJ's or turbo props?

 

[Twisted Mind]

Lack of available pilots for what ever reason will still not bring rates up. Lets just say that Mesa decides that it needs to pay more to attract pilots. They will go to the union and say we need to increase first year F.O. pay by 10%. The senior pilots will make the union refuse this offer unless they get 15% pay increase and Mesa will say sorry can not afford that and no one will get a raise. We already had the shortage lived though it and nothing changed.

 

[JustaNumber]

Lack of available pilots for what ever reason will still not bring rates up. Lets just say that Mesa decides that it needs to pay more to attract pilots. They will go to the union and say we need to increase first year F.O. pay by 10%. The senior pilots will make the union refuse this offer unless they get 15% pay increase and Mesa will say sorry can not afford that and no one will get a raise. We already had the shortage lived though it and nothing changed.

Okay, to follow your logic, no raises occur, and not enough pilots get hired. If air travel demand goes up, but airlines can't offer enough seats, the ticket price of remaining seats goes up. Airlines end up with more cash in their pockets, and see a demand for more flying that they can't provide. End result: they will eventually spend that cash to raise pilot pay, to enhance their own revenue. Just my theory, though.

 

[JustaNumber]

After the gang-raping the legacies took since 2001 I don't see anyone allowing more outsourcing. After what the legacy pilots have seen with the outsourcing to date, don't expect anymore. If anything maybe bringing some of the small jet flying back. Now everyone has a price. If the company came to the union and offered Dal/Ual 2000-2001 rates adjusted for inflation + restoring the DB plan + with a lump sum option on the DB plan, full retro pay, etc. Maybe, just maybe we might concede more scope. This has about as much likelihood happening as #4.

Cobradrvr,
This is an honest question, and not flamebait. Let's say that a couple years down the road the economy tanks even more, forcing several airlines close to the brink of bankruptcy yet again. If your airline management told you they were facing a crippling financial crisis, and the options were one of the following, what would you decide?
1) Scope remains as is, and 15% of your pilot group will get furloughed, while the remaining "lucky" ones will see 40% pay cuts, or
2) Let management ease scope one more time to allow a few more RJs, and everyone currently on property gets to keep their current job and current pay.

I'm not saying I like what has happened in the past, and past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if history is any guide, I see #2 as the more likely choice. (To be followed shortly thereafter by #1 anyway!)