Pilot shortage

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Comair is going to recall a bunch of pilots soon. Compass was told to gear up their hiring. Other airlines have started recalling and/or hiring.

At DAL, EVERYONE has been recalled. They only guys still are are on bypass from recall (they can come back later...military commitments, basically).

cliff
NBO

 

[no1pilot2000]

Current and former regional pilots....

Do you prefer RJ's or turbo props?

 

[Twisted Mind]

Lack of available pilots for what ever reason will still not bring rates up. Lets just say that Mesa decides that it needs to pay more to attract pilots. They will go to the union and say we need to increase first year F.O. pay by 10%. The senior pilots will make the union refuse this offer unless they get 15% pay increase and Mesa will say sorry can not afford that and no one will get a raise. We already had the shortage lived though it and nothing changed.

 

[JustaNumber]

Lack of available pilots for what ever reason will still not bring rates up. Lets just say that Mesa decides that it needs to pay more to attract pilots. They will go to the union and say we need to increase first year F.O. pay by 10%. The senior pilots will make the union refuse this offer unless they get 15% pay increase and Mesa will say sorry can not afford that and no one will get a raise. We already had the shortage lived though it and nothing changed.

Okay, to follow your logic, no raises occur, and not enough pilots get hired. If air travel demand goes up, but airlines can't offer enough seats, the ticket price of remaining seats goes up. Airlines end up with more cash in their pockets, and see a demand for more flying that they can't provide. End result: they will eventually spend that cash to raise pilot pay, to enhance their own revenue. Just my theory, though.

 

[JustaNumber]

After the gang-raping the legacies took since 2001 I don't see anyone allowing more outsourcing. After what the legacy pilots have seen with the outsourcing to date, don't expect anymore. If anything maybe bringing some of the small jet flying back. Now everyone has a price. If the company came to the union and offered Dal/Ual 2000-2001 rates adjusted for inflation + restoring the DB plan + with a lump sum option on the DB plan, full retro pay, etc. Maybe, just maybe we might concede more scope. This has about as much likelihood happening as #4.

Cobradrvr,
This is an honest question, and not flamebait. Let's say that a couple years down the road the economy tanks even more, forcing several airlines close to the brink of bankruptcy yet again. If your airline management told you they were facing a crippling financial crisis, and the options were one of the following, what would you decide?
1) Scope remains as is, and 15% of your pilot group will get furloughed, while the remaining "lucky" ones will see 40% pay cuts, or
2) Let management ease scope one more time to allow a few more RJs, and everyone currently on property gets to keep their current job and current pay.

I'm not saying I like what has happened in the past, and past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if history is any guide, I see #2 as the more likely choice. (To be followed shortly thereafter by #1 anyway!)

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I was a regional pilot (sort of).

Do you prefer RJ's or turbo props?

Or recips/helos/jets...whatever. As long as it's a decent job with fair pay, I will fly anything, and maybe even an RPV (Remotely Piloted Vehicle).

cliff
NBO

 

[QOL_is_great:)]

Interesting discussion throughout this thread. It would be nice to see actually numbers from every airline (major, LLC and regional) of how many are on furlough and how many are above age 60 and how many are in each year above 60 until 65. I know some of the furlough numbers can be found, but the other numbers are the tough ones to know.

I know there are many on the street now or about (add 500 from NJA). They will be coming back to work in due time as recalls happen. We all know when the economy recovers then more people will travel and there will be the need to hire. Add the need to hire, due to growth, and the age 65 bubble popping we will see a storage in the regionals.

The desire to earn more coin and a better QOL that the majors offer will drive those that can leave the regionals out and up. Where will the shortfall come from? Yes, there are still people going to entire this industry and fill those seats within the regionals for low pay and benefits while having low experience. These pilots will feel as if they hit the lotto (most of us know that feeling) then they'll aspire for the upward climb. Some hired will be low quality, most of them will be of higher quality and will be safe doing their job.

Look at the Air Force and how they "hired" or placed into flight training pilots this year. This year is the first year in AF history that more young pilot candidates were placed into the UAV programs then into actual flight training. They also have one class that the young inspiring "pilots" are not even attending actual flight training first. They supply line is now even shorter. Add those flight schools that have closed or have reduced numbers training. Some airline furloughees have not been able to fall back on being a flight instructor since enrollment is down and less schools are even open.

It'll sure be fun to watch as it all unfolds and could take a few years or more. The bottom line is the music will be the same tune playing, but only the dance partners will change. It's aviation boys and girls, it's aviation.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

I just don't see us falling for this fallacy again. Outsourcing half of our domestic flying has not made the mainlines profitable, if anything the guaranteed money sent to the subcontractors probably led to our ch 11s. You notice that the airlines without any outsourcing survived/thrived while we bled money. I am not on the mec, but I think you would have a meltdown if any of this is allowed. I will go one step further and say that even in another ch11 if forced upon us you would see a job action this time. Jmho, this is our airline we have bought and paid for it many times over. The great rj outsourcing experiment did not work.

Cobradrvr,
This is an honest question, and not flamebait. Let's say that a couple years down the road the economy tanks even more, forcing several airlines close to the brink of bankruptcy yet again. If your airline management told you they were facing a crippling financial crisis, and the options were one of the following, what would you decide?
1) Scope remains as is, and 15% of your pilot group will get furloughed, while the remaining "lucky" ones will see 40% pay cuts, or
2) Let management ease scope one more time to allow a few more RJs, and everyone currently on property gets to keep their current job and current pay.

I'm not saying I like what has happened in the past, and past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if history is any guide, I see #2 as the more likely choice. (To be followed shortly thereafter by #1 anyway!)

 

[pilotyip]

Exactly

Okay, to follow your logic, no raises occur, and not enough pilots get hired. If air travel demand goes up, but airlines can't offer enough seats, the ticket price of remaining seats goes up. Airlines end up with more cash in their pockets, and see a demand for more flying that they can't provide. End result: they will eventually spend that cash to raise pilot pay, to enhance their own revenue. Just my theory, though.

as per above only time will tell how the market will handle this change in hiring requirements

 

[pilotyip]

different story

Hi!

Comair is going to recall a bunch of pilots soon. Compass was told to gear up their hiring. Other airlines have started recalling and/or hiring.

At DAL, EVERYONE has been recalled. They only guys still are are on bypass from recall (they can come back later...military commitments, basically).

cliff
NBO

I just interviewed tow furloughed Comair pilots, they both told me that they heard more furloughts were coming as DL/NWA shead feeders