Pilot shortage

[Metro752]

My brain hurts.

 

[hockeypilot44]

The pilot shortage will never happen. Those of you who think different are naive.

 

[gangdev]

There is no pilot shortage. I honestly have no idea how this discussion keeps coming up.

Because people are confusing a pilot shortage with hiring demand.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Yes, did you?



Read it again.



And finally, a third time so it sinks in.



Now, please explain to the class how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline level represents a shortage throughout the industry. If you look real hard, you'll realize you've already addressed this:

Ever wonder why that was? Probably has a lot to do with compensation and career progression.

Again, a relationship with compensation and career progression.

Think about it: what regional airlines were hiring a substantive number of sub-500hr pilots during the peak of the 2007 "shortage", and where would those airlines rank among other regionals in terms of compensation, quality of life, and career progression?

If you choose to believe the bill of goods Kit Darby has been selling for over two decades now about the "great pilot shortage" that's well and good...but I personally wouldn't base my career aspirations and expectations on that.

You're an idiot.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Because people are confusing a pilot shortage with hiring demand.

Again, you can call it what you want. Pilot shortage and hiring demand are the same thing. If there aren't crews in the seats to fly the airplanes, then the flights will cancel, and that is going to put some of the regionals in a world of hurt.

I'm not buying Kit Darby's goods. I'm building on my experience with the industry, and what I've seen at flight schools in the past year. FlightSafety has 25 domestic students. Flight schools all over FL are out of business. We are going to have a hard time filling classes after we go through all of the furloughed people.

All of you guys saying there is going to be no shortage are just arguing semantics, and spouting BS. You can wish for "major" pay scales at the regionals. Hell, I wish for that too, but it isn't going to happen. The regionals just won't work financially with that sort of labor cost. Get over it, and if you want more money, go to a major.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Now, please explain to the class how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline level represents a shortage throughout the industry. If you look real hard, you'll realize you've already addressed this:

Look, my point ONLY is that there will be a shortage at the regional level. I'm not talking about DAL. I'm not talking about UPS. They won't have a shortage any time soon because we are fully staffed, and they get their pilots from us.

Rather, regionals WILL have a shortage because we get pilots from flight schools, and flight schools are WAY down in enrollments.


That all being said, I just spoke with a flight ops manager at Delta the other day, and they are very carefully watching our hiring situation and "shortage" situation, because an "interruption in our pilot supply chain equals an eventual interruption in theirs." Take that how you will, as it is nearly verbatim.

 

[BoilerUP]

You're an idiot.

If I were an idiot then it should be pretty simple to explain to all of us how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline (i.e. lowest paying, worst QOL) level represents a true lack of pilots throughout the industry.

We're waiting.

 

[Tarzan]

Fairly easy to understand in my humble opinion. With no one in the pipeline or very little, when the 1500 hour rule becomes law and the Baby Boomer crowd starts to leave again, there will be a loud sucking noise that will be the pilots at the regionals leaving for the legacy carriers. The seat miles will still be there. Without pilots to fly those at the regional level, the flying will be forced back to the legacy carrier.

I believe the legacy carriers will be able to fill their ranks but the basic business model will change drastically in five years of how regionals fill the now. The basic idea of supply and demand will lead to higher wages to attract the pilots needed by regional will eventually make it impossible for the regional to be an economically viable alternative.

Either that or ab intio becomes the norm until there is an adequate supply to can it. It will be a shortage but the seats will be filled one way or another.

 

[pilotyip]

only time will tell

Fairly easy to understand in my humble opinion. With no one in the pipeline or very little, when the 1500 hour rule becomes law and the Baby Boomer crowd starts to leave again, there will be a loud sucking noise that will be the pilots at the regionals leaving for the legacy carriers. The seat miles will still be there. Without pilots to fly those at the regional level, the flying will be forced back to the legacy carrier.

I believe the legacy carriers will be able to fill their ranks but the basic business model will change drastically in five years of how regionals fill the now. The basic idea of supply and demand will lead to higher wages to attract the pilots needed by regional will eventually make it impossible for the regional to be an economically viable alternative.

Either that or ab intio becomes the norm until there is an adequate supply to can it. It will be a shortage but the seats will be filled one way or another.

only time will tell how this will play out. If a shortage does develope then pay may have to go up to fill the seats. If pay goes up, then tickets prices have to go up, equal less riders, less flights and a need for not a many pilots. The market will balance the need between pilots and ticket prices. In the end consumer will dictate pay in the airlines, not unions, not management, not gov't, but the guy who buys a ticket

 

[Smarta$$]

only time will tell how this will play out. If a shortage does develope then pay may have to go up to fill the seats. If pay goes up, then tickets prices have to go up, equal less riders, less flights and a need for not a many pilots. The market will balance the need between pilots and ticket prices. In the end consumer will dictate pay in the airlines, not unions, not management, not gov't, but the guy who buys a ticket

This is all bull crap. 2 dollars per ticket, paid in pilot compensation, would have a truely dramatic increase in regional pilot pay. It is not that regional airlines can't afford to pay us better.

 

[imacdog]

Without pilots to fly those at the regional level, the flying will be forced back to the legacy carrier.

....but they will be there. Do you realize how many pilots are flying professionaly at companies other than the regionals, and are waiting for their chance to get a job there?

 

[pilotyip]

you may be right

This is all bull crap. 2 dollars per ticket, paid in pilot compensation, would have a truely dramatic increase in regional pilot pay. It is not that regional airlines can't afford to pay us better.

only time will tell, I know people change airlines for $1 difference right now, so $2 might make or break it in empty seats

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

We get yip. Everything else in our life goes up but pilot salaries and airline fares just can't. Every year my home owners insurance goes up (+10% for 2010), food prices, gas prices, dry cleaners, gym membership, home alarm, Mexican dude mowing the yard, water bill, postage, medical insurance, direct tv, cell phones, pool chemicals, beer, property taxes and most of all, management pay and perks. As far as people you know changing airlines for $1, I don't believe that one bit especially if it involves connecting or less convenient times. I would say $20-$30 each way may get someone to consider a connection vs nonstop. Even then most people that I know are not that cheap.

only time will tell, I know people change airlines for $1 difference right now, so $2 might make or break it in empty seats

 

[Flyerdan]

If I were an idiot then it should be pretty simple to explain to all of us how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline (i.e. lowest paying, worst QOL) level represents a true lack of pilots throughout the industry.

We're waiting.

I don't want to turn up the heat on this issue but I really don't understand your position here.

It seems accurate to say that there are fewer pilot candidates in the training/experience pipeline to fill what is expected to be an increasing number of pilot positions when the economy improves.

 

[imacdog]

I don't want to turn up the heat on this issue but I really don't understand your position here.

It seems accurate to say that there are fewer pilot candidates in the training/experience pipeline to fill what is expected to be an increasing number of pilot positions when the economy improves.

When the economy does improve, there will be plenty of experienced pilots available to join the regionals. As those pilots go to the regionals and people see success stories in aviation, and an ad or two from Kit Darby, they will begin to go back to the flight schools. A couple years of training and instructing and they're at 1500 hours. Thus, the cycle of life continues.