Pilot shortage

[Twisted Mind]

Could some one please explain what supply and demand has to do with a unionized work force?

 

[pilotyip]

Shortage?

Unions restrict supply, thereby causing spot shortages at the places they represent, this allows higher wages temporarily until market forces make that airline non-competitive. BTW many on this site say there never have been and never will be a pilot shortage. However being on the hiring end I can personally attest to the fact there have been wild experience shortages.

 

[rtmcfi]

More often there is not a shortage of pilots, but a shortage of compensation, thereby failing to attract pilots.

 

[ualdriver]

Unions restrict supply, thereby causing spot shortages at the places they represent, this allows higher wages temporarily until market forces make that airline non-competitive. BTW many on this site say there never have been and never will be a pilot shortage. However being on the hiring end I can personally attest to the fact there have been wild experience shortages.

When your airline personally experienced those "wild experience shortages," what was your compensation structure compared to other airlines? Maybe your airline experienced "wild experience shortages" because the total compensation package offered by your airline was insufficient to attract the large pool of qualified, experienced pilots that were readily available?

During good economic times, I am sure may restaurateurs have a hard time hiring dish washers and bus boys at the wages they are willing to pay them. That doesn't mean there is a shortage of dish washers and bus boys in America. It just means that there is a shortage of people willing to work for low wages. Raise the dishwasher/bus boy wage, and you'll have all the dishwasher/bus boys you could ever need.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

When your airline personally experienced those "wild experience shortages," what was your compensation structure compared to other airlines? Maybe your airline experienced "wild experience shortages" because the total compensation package offered by your airline was insufficient to attract the large pool of qualified, experienced pilots that were readily available?

During good economic times, I am sure may restaurateurs have a hard time hiring dish washers and bus boys at the wages they are willing to pay them. That doesn't mean there is a shortage of dish washers and bus boys in America. It just means that there is a shortage of people willing to work for low wages. Raise the dishwasher/bus boy wage, and you'll have all the dishwasher/bus boys you could ever need.

Whatever. A shortage is a shortage, however you slice it. The fact is that it will be difficult to hire people within the next 2 years. This shortage will not affect wages, but it will affect which companies can stay in business operating aircraft.

 

[BoilerUP]

Whatever. A shortage is a shortage, however you slice it.

No, it is not.

A shortage of pilots willing to work for regional airline compensation does NOT correlate to a shortage of pilots able to work.

Think about it...in the last "shortage" (2006-2007) there wasn't any shortage of pilots applying to work at DAL, NWA, UAL, CAL, SWA, FDX, UPS, Netjets, etc...

 

[ualdriver]

Whatever. A shortage is a shortage, however you slice it. The fact is that it will be difficult to hire people within the next 2 years. This shortage will not affect wages, but it will affect which companies can stay in business operating aircraft.

Using that logic, I'm going to put an ad for guys to come out and do my yard work. I'm going to pay them $1/hour. When no one answers my ad, I'm going to post an editorial in the local paper and proclaim that there is a serious shortage of lawn care workers in my town!

 

[username]

There is no shortage. Never has been. Probably never will be. Orville and Wilbur had to compete over who got to fly and it's only gotten worse from there. The supply of pilots will be proportional to the pay and quality of life of the job.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

No, it is not.

A shortage of pilots willing to work for regional airline compensation does NOT correlate to a shortage of pilots able to work.

Think about it...in the last "shortage" (2006-2007) there wasn't any shortage of pilots applying to work at DAL, NWA, UAL, CAL, SWA, FDX, UPS, Netjets, etc...

Did you just read what you wrote? The shortage will be at the regionals because that is where people go to get qualified to apply to "DAL, NWA, UAL, CAL, SWA, FDX, UPS, Netjets, etc..." I know that sucks, but everyone has got to start somewhere. I'll be the first to say that the regionals are a good place to make a career, but the fact remains that most people at the majors got there by working first at a regional.

Everyone knows that the shortage will not be at the majors because there is a huge group of pilots at all of the regionals all just counting the days until the majors hire again. That fact alone is going to account for most of the shortage at the regionals without factoring in retirements. They will be leaving in droves again, just like in 2007.

There just aren't enough people in flight school anymore. The cause is irrelevant, but there will be a shortage of qualified people coming from the pipeline in a year + or two, maybe three. All of you spouting that BS about there not being a pilot shortage are missing the point. Regionals don't hire people from major airlines, or from corporate flight departments, etc. Majors hire pilots from the regionals. Regionals hire their pilots from flight schools, and small 135 operators, etc. Talk to almost any flight school. Enrollments are down. Interest in the industry is down. Argue all you want about the reason why, but the fact remains that a shortage is on the way.

And those of you thinking a shortage is going to drive the pay up to $50,000 a year for the first year are smoking crack. At the very best, the pay may go up by a few dollars at the top-tier regionals, but in these days of cost cutting and striving to stay alive, compensation will have more downward force than upward force in the next 3-4 years. I wish we weren't negotiating next year. It is a horrible time to negotiate.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Using that logic, I'm going to put an ad for guys to come out and do my yard work. I'm going to pay them $1/hour. When no one answers my ad, I'm going to post an editorial in the local paper and proclaim that there is a serious shortage of lawn care workers in my town!

By our logic, there is no shortage of people willing to do any job! If you pay someone $1,000,000 a year to lick toilet bowls, there won't be a shortage for that job either.

No, all anyone is saying is that in the current environment, with current work rules and current pay, there will be a shortage of pilots in the regional industry. The work rules and pay are not going to change enough to drive a change in the supply because those in the supply chain (graduating seniors in HS and college students, etc.) are not getting into the industry not because of crappy pay, but because of the well publicized downturn in the industry, such as furloughs. The shortage is felt at the entry-level jobs (regionals).

Face it folks, the regionals are entry-level jobs. That doesn't mean that you can't make a nice career there, on the contrary, all of the movement to the majors means you can gain QOL and seniority really quickly, and make a nice comfortable life for yourself. But when you want to go work for Delta, you start at a regional, or come from the military. Nobody instructs in 172s and goes to FedEx.

 

[imacdog]

There is no pilot shortage. I honestly have no idea how this discussion keeps coming up.

 

[J and E's Daddy]

There is no shortage. Never has been. Probably never will be. Orville and Wilbur had to compete over who got to fly and it's only gotten worse from there. The supply of pilots will be proportional to the pay and quality of life of the job.

We are our own worst enemies. There will never be a shortage. Trust me, when the airlines start hiring again, they will be flooded with resumes. Unfortunately, there are still too many pilots out there who are either willing to work for free or for very little just to get that valuable fligh time. There is no reason pilots should have to work second jobs on their days off.
Until others stop being w************************* and have a better esteem for this profession, we will never be respected and always be looked down upon.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

There is no pilot shortage. I honestly have no idea how this discussion keeps coming up.

There isn't RIGHT NOW. There will be at the regional level when the age 65 rule kicks in, and the economy turns around.

 

[BoilerUP]

Did you just read what you wrote?

Yes, did you?

A shortage of pilots willing to work for regional airline compensation does NOT correlate to a shortage of pilots able to work.

Read it again.

A shortage of pilots willing to work for regional airline compensation does NOT correlate to a shortage of pilots able to work.

And finally, a third time so it sinks in.

A shortage of pilots willing to work for regional airline compensation does NOT correlate to a shortage of pilots able to work.

Now, please explain to the class how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline level represents a shortage throughout the industry. If you look real hard, you'll realize you've already addressed this:

Regionals don't hire people from major airlines, or from corporate flight departments, etc.

Ever wonder why that was? Probably has a lot to do with compensation and career progression.

Regionals hire their pilots from flight schools, and small 135 operators, etc.

Again, a relationship with compensation and career progression.

Think about it: what regional airlines were hiring a substantive number of sub-500hr pilots during the peak of the 2007 "shortage", and where would those airlines rank among other regionals in terms of compensation, quality of life, and career progression?

If you choose to believe the bill of goods Kit Darby has been selling for over two decades now about the "great pilot shortage" that's well and good...but I personally wouldn't base my career aspirations and expectations on that.

 

[imacdog]

There isn't RIGHT NOW. There will be at the regional level when the age 65 rule kicks in, and the economy turns around.

No, there won't be a shortage then either. There will be pilot position openings. You think there will be a shortage of qualified pilots then? How many pilots at that time will have spent years flight instructing, flying charter, flying cancelled bank checks, or are furloughed from another company? Just curious.

 

[Metro752]

My brain hurts.

 

[hockeypilot44]

The pilot shortage will never happen. Those of you who think different are naive.

 

[gangdev]

There is no pilot shortage. I honestly have no idea how this discussion keeps coming up.

Because people are confusing a pilot shortage with hiring demand.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Yes, did you?



Read it again.



And finally, a third time so it sinks in.



Now, please explain to the class how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline level represents a shortage throughout the industry. If you look real hard, you'll realize you've already addressed this:

Ever wonder why that was? Probably has a lot to do with compensation and career progression.

Again, a relationship with compensation and career progression.

Think about it: what regional airlines were hiring a substantive number of sub-500hr pilots during the peak of the 2007 "shortage", and where would those airlines rank among other regionals in terms of compensation, quality of life, and career progression?

If you choose to believe the bill of goods Kit Darby has been selling for over two decades now about the "great pilot shortage" that's well and good...but I personally wouldn't base my career aspirations and expectations on that.

You're an idiot.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Because people are confusing a pilot shortage with hiring demand.

Again, you can call it what you want. Pilot shortage and hiring demand are the same thing. If there aren't crews in the seats to fly the airplanes, then the flights will cancel, and that is going to put some of the regionals in a world of hurt.

I'm not buying Kit Darby's goods. I'm building on my experience with the industry, and what I've seen at flight schools in the past year. FlightSafety has 25 domestic students. Flight schools all over FL are out of business. We are going to have a hard time filling classes after we go through all of the furloughed people.

All of you guys saying there is going to be no shortage are just arguing semantics, and spouting BS. You can wish for "major" pay scales at the regionals. Hell, I wish for that too, but it isn't going to happen. The regionals just won't work financially with that sort of labor cost. Get over it, and if you want more money, go to a major.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Now, please explain to the class how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline level represents a shortage throughout the industry. If you look real hard, you'll realize you've already addressed this:

Look, my point ONLY is that there will be a shortage at the regional level. I'm not talking about DAL. I'm not talking about UPS. They won't have a shortage any time soon because we are fully staffed, and they get their pilots from us.

Rather, regionals WILL have a shortage because we get pilots from flight schools, and flight schools are WAY down in enrollments.


That all being said, I just spoke with a flight ops manager at Delta the other day, and they are very carefully watching our hiring situation and "shortage" situation, because an "interruption in our pilot supply chain equals an eventual interruption in theirs." Take that how you will, as it is nearly verbatim.

 

[BoilerUP]

You're an idiot.

If I were an idiot then it should be pretty simple to explain to all of us how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline (i.e. lowest paying, worst QOL) level represents a true lack of pilots throughout the industry.

We're waiting.

 

[Tarzan]

Fairly easy to understand in my humble opinion. With no one in the pipeline or very little, when the 1500 hour rule becomes law and the Baby Boomer crowd starts to leave again, there will be a loud sucking noise that will be the pilots at the regionals leaving for the legacy carriers. The seat miles will still be there. Without pilots to fly those at the regional level, the flying will be forced back to the legacy carrier.

I believe the legacy carriers will be able to fill their ranks but the basic business model will change drastically in five years of how regionals fill the now. The basic idea of supply and demand will lead to higher wages to attract the pilots needed by regional will eventually make it impossible for the regional to be an economically viable alternative.

Either that or ab intio becomes the norm until there is an adequate supply to can it. It will be a shortage but the seats will be filled one way or another.

 

[pilotyip]

only time will tell

Fairly easy to understand in my humble opinion. With no one in the pipeline or very little, when the 1500 hour rule becomes law and the Baby Boomer crowd starts to leave again, there will be a loud sucking noise that will be the pilots at the regionals leaving for the legacy carriers. The seat miles will still be there. Without pilots to fly those at the regional level, the flying will be forced back to the legacy carrier.

I believe the legacy carriers will be able to fill their ranks but the basic business model will change drastically in five years of how regionals fill the now. The basic idea of supply and demand will lead to higher wages to attract the pilots needed by regional will eventually make it impossible for the regional to be an economically viable alternative.

Either that or ab intio becomes the norm until there is an adequate supply to can it. It will be a shortage but the seats will be filled one way or another.

only time will tell how this will play out. If a shortage does develope then pay may have to go up to fill the seats. If pay goes up, then tickets prices have to go up, equal less riders, less flights and a need for not a many pilots. The market will balance the need between pilots and ticket prices. In the end consumer will dictate pay in the airlines, not unions, not management, not gov't, but the guy who buys a ticket

 

[Smarta$$]

only time will tell how this will play out. If a shortage does develope then pay may have to go up to fill the seats. If pay goes up, then tickets prices have to go up, equal less riders, less flights and a need for not a many pilots. The market will balance the need between pilots and ticket prices. In the end consumer will dictate pay in the airlines, not unions, not management, not gov't, but the guy who buys a ticket

This is all bull crap. 2 dollars per ticket, paid in pilot compensation, would have a truely dramatic increase in regional pilot pay. It is not that regional airlines can't afford to pay us better.

 

[imacdog]

Without pilots to fly those at the regional level, the flying will be forced back to the legacy carrier.

....but they will be there. Do you realize how many pilots are flying professionaly at companies other than the regionals, and are waiting for their chance to get a job there?

 

[pilotyip]

you may be right

This is all bull crap. 2 dollars per ticket, paid in pilot compensation, would have a truely dramatic increase in regional pilot pay. It is not that regional airlines can't afford to pay us better.

only time will tell, I know people change airlines for $1 difference right now, so $2 might make or break it in empty seats

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

We get yip. Everything else in our life goes up but pilot salaries and airline fares just can't. Every year my home owners insurance goes up (+10% for 2010), food prices, gas prices, dry cleaners, gym membership, home alarm, Mexican dude mowing the yard, water bill, postage, medical insurance, direct tv, cell phones, pool chemicals, beer, property taxes and most of all, management pay and perks. As far as people you know changing airlines for $1, I don't believe that one bit especially if it involves connecting or less convenient times. I would say $20-$30 each way may get someone to consider a connection vs nonstop. Even then most people that I know are not that cheap.

only time will tell, I know people change airlines for $1 difference right now, so $2 might make or break it in empty seats

 

[Flyerdan]

If I were an idiot then it should be pretty simple to explain to all of us how a shortage of pilots at the regional airline (i.e. lowest paying, worst QOL) level represents a true lack of pilots throughout the industry.

We're waiting.

I don't want to turn up the heat on this issue but I really don't understand your position here.

It seems accurate to say that there are fewer pilot candidates in the training/experience pipeline to fill what is expected to be an increasing number of pilot positions when the economy improves.

 

[imacdog]

I don't want to turn up the heat on this issue but I really don't understand your position here.

It seems accurate to say that there are fewer pilot candidates in the training/experience pipeline to fill what is expected to be an increasing number of pilot positions when the economy improves.

When the economy does improve, there will be plenty of experienced pilots available to join the regionals. As those pilots go to the regionals and people see success stories in aviation, and an ad or two from Kit Darby, they will begin to go back to the flight schools. A couple years of training and instructing and they're at 1500 hours. Thus, the cycle of life continues.