Oil Prices Increase on Supply Concerns

[Alin10123]

I have not said anything for awhile so I will pipe up here.......China and the United States will come together in the next 20 years to put the oil problem to bed once and for all...combined, this force of military splendor will dominate the East and cause that part of the world to come to it knees. Now how about that Apple.....Focus out.

I really doubt it. If that's what you think will happen. You really dont understand the mainland chinese culture and the way they are.

 

[Focus]

Alin10, I never did claim to understand their culture or for that matter my own. What I do know is Economics,..... Money........When any society needs raw material to expand they will do what ever it takes...Its actually very simple. Even Rats in a cage will do the same....The weak will loose. Sorry for the very simplistic analogy but I believe you get my point.
Please by no means take the analogy to claim we are RATS......We are simply products of the world we live in. Anyways........Im out...Focus Out.

 

[Alin10123]

Alin10, I never did claim to understand their culture or for that matter my own. What I do know is Economics,..... Money........When any society needs raw material to expand they will do what ever it takes...Its actually very simple. Even Rats in a cage will do the same....The weak will loose. Sorry for the very simplistic analogy but I believe you get my point.
Please by no means take the analogy to claim we are RATS......We are simply products of the world we live in. Anyways........Im out...Focus Out.

That may be so. But they will do what they need to do and then kick you to the curb when you are no longer needed. They've got this "i've got what i want, screw you" attitude when it comes to this kind of stuff.

 

[maru657]

Shortterm memories, The price of oil zoomed shortly after the 2000 elections. The situation in the middle east went sour after the 2000 elections. Put somebody with brains in the white house and give them a box of cigars, The situation will improve.

 

[El-Rushbo]

Seems to me the last so called "smart" occupant was so busy playing with those cigars, he neglected his presidential duties of national and world security.

I seem to recall that our current situation was hatched by terrorists that were in country and planning/training since the late 1990s-(spoiler alert---NOT THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION!!).

But I guess playing grabb-a$$ with interns while killers plot the deaths of 3,000 Americans on our own soil is what you would consider a smart and responsible president.

At least he taught us all the definition of the word "is".

BTW, in case you forgot, this is the "Majors" board. If you would like to discuss political ideals, go to the "Non-Aviation Chat" board. Thanks for your insightful analysis of national and world politics.

 

[JetFumes]

What no one seems to be talking about is the process of turning coal into a liquid fuel. I can't remember the name of the process, but apparently South Africa gets forty percent of its fuel this way! If the Unites States began to get its fuel, including fuel for cars and planes,etc, we'd have 300 years of fuel. I can't remember where I read this but I am seeing it more and more. The US has a boatload of coal. So it seems that West Virginia is in for an economic boom.

 

[PCL_128]

LazyB, that's some interesting stuff. It's my understanding that most of Russia's oil companies practically accept it as fact nowdays that oil is inorganic. The theory holds promise, and it would certainly make all of this peak-oil nonsense irrelevant for many, many decades.

 

[D.sanchez]

Anyways........Im out...Focus Out.

Focus, you seem like an alright, smart guy. But saying "Focus Out" at the end of your posts is gay.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I believe it's called coal liquification, or maybe gas liquification. It can be done, but it's difficult. What's easier is making oil from the Canadian oil shale. They have decades of supply up there. Unforunately, to change the oil shale to liquid fuel, we are currently using natural gas. To change the Canadian supply to oil would require all the natural gas produced in N. America, leaving none for heating and electrical generation, so that won't work.

We quit hunting for food, and started farming, which was easier and much more reliable.

We need to do the same with energy. Instead of searching for it deep inside the earth, we need to farm the sun's energy (solar, wind, tides, ocean waves, etc.) that literally hits us in the face everyday (unless you're based in YIP).

Cliff
GRB

 

[jetflyer]

Remember when Bush said "You're either with us, or you're with the terrorists"

Watch the world. It's taking sides for a future showdown.
The WINNERS will be the rulers of the post-Peak Oil world and will use the rest of the oil.
The LOSERS will be deprived of the natural resources they need and their economies will perish and chaos will ensue in their countries.

-China and India are joining together in an "ENERGY ALLIANCE." This was recently announced on their part.
-China and India get oil from Iran.
-China and India have both within the last two weeks made visits to Saudi Arabia and met with King Abdullah about getting oil from them.
-China just started getting oil from Hugo Chavez and Venezuela.
-China has said it will defend its energy interests with nukes if it has to.
-China and Japan have been squabbling over natural gas between their countries and who has the rights to it. Japan actually mobilized their navy for only the second time since WWII for this reason.
-Russia has formed alliances with Iran and has been supplying them with weapons and their nuclear fuel.
-China and Russia have joined together to share coaches and training techniques to assist as their goal of "jointly defeating the U.S.A. in the 2008 Olympics in Beijing"
-China and Russia have run joint military exercises TOGETHER assisting each other to defeat a combined energy in what they called a "WAR ON TERROR" exercise. This was on the ? Peninsula? I can't remember but it was talked about on this site for a while. The exercise practiced using nuclear weapons as well.
-China has been searching the globe for energy resources. China tried to buy Unocal. They get oil from Libya, Venezuela, Iran, Canada, Turkey, Russia and many countries the U.S. sees as threats and enemies of the U.S.
-The U.S. warned China several months ago that oil is a global commodity and the price and who can pay it determines who gets the oil, and that they need to stop trying to secure the oil for themselves with their oil contracts.
-Russia just showed Europe by constricting their natural gas exports that they have control over Europe and that Russia can control Europe by threatening to deprive them of their energy.
-I think Russia, China, India, Iran, and other countries may try to defeat and deprive the U.S. of its lifeblood (energy from oil and natural gas). This would be the first way they'd try to get an advantage in a war.

I think sides are being taken for the next big war when the oil begins to run out.

"You're either with US or with the TERRORISTS"

I think China, Russia, and India are going to be with the terrorists.

China, Russia, and India are joining with Iran, Venezuela, Syria, etc.
Iran has said that the world doesn't "NEED AMERICA AND ISRAEL ANYMORE." I think this alliance is going to try and see if they can defeat us in the future.

Does anybody remember what the book "THE ART OF WAR" is about?
The moral of the book is that the war is won before they begin by the actions taken beforehand. I think steps are being taken to get an upper hand NOW to get set up strategically for the next BIG WAR.

-The U.S. is trying to secure the oil resources so they keep flowing and that they can possibly by military might be directed our way instead of China's etc.
-The U.S. has been increasing the military budget for the "WAR ON TERROR" which I think is cover for the next big war. The same with the "War on TYRANNY"
-China is making ties with the U.S.'s enemies for energy.
-China single handedly is keeping interest rates low in America by buying up all of our debt. If China were to stop tomorrow the U.S. would have to raise interest rates a LOT to get buyers of our debt. Unfortunately the U.S. is weak economically for a war.
-Iran is going to try to open up an OIL BOURSE AT THE END OF MARCH to sell oil in a currency other than the dollar. Russia has also expressed interest in the idea. They said they're going to wait to see how it works for Iran. THIS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN and WE WILL ATTACK IRAN BEFORE THE END OF MARCH. This will hurt the American dollar tremendously and begin an unstoppable downhill slide.
The U.S.'s alliance will be all of the countries that went into Iraq including Britain, Canada, Australia, Japan, and now I believe thank goodness France and Germany are joining the U.S.'s side.
France and Germany are actually two of the leaders in trying to deal with Iran right now.

I say just keep watching the world. I think we're in the beginning stages of the showdown.

Like Alin10213 said Taiwan and Japan with China could spark a showdown. I personally think that if there is an Iran showdown that China won't step in right now, but oh they want to. Russia, Iran, and China might have something up their sleeves, but I hope not. I think the U.S. is smart strategically to get into Iran now to take away Iran's ability to hold the world hostage as the oil resources begin to decline.

Let's hope the OIL MEN and WOMEN in office can pull it off.

There's a lot more going on behind the scenes than any of us know about. The world is a lot more dangerous than any of us can imagine. Not everyone are nice guys.

Jet

 

[Alin10123]

Well said.
China has NEVER wanted to have much to do with the US when it comes to anything. Like i was saying before they REALLY dont like us because we wont let them attack Taiwan. They have been holding this grudge for years, as well as Japan's. Strange thing though... why go against us? If it wasn't for us entering WW2, they'd all be speaking Japanese right now. Every one of them. Then they show appreciation by screwing with our economy intentionally. I'm telling you.. something big is going to happen in the not too distant future.

Remember when Bush said "You're either with us, or you're with the terrorists"

Watch the world. It's taking sides for a future showdown.
The WINNERS will be the rulers of the post-Peak Oil world and will use the rest of the oil.
The LOSERS will be deprived of the natural resources they need and their economies will perish and chaos will ensue in their countries.

-China and India are joining together in an "ENERGY ALLIANCE." This was recently announced on their part.
-China and India get oil from Iran.
-China and India have both within the last two weeks made visits to Saudi Arabia and met with King Abdullah about getting oil from them.
-China just started getting oil from Hugo Chavez and Venezuela.
-China has said it will defend its energy interests with nukes if it has to.
-China and Japan have been squabbling over natural gas between their countries and who has the rights to it. Japan actually mobilized their navy for only the second time since WWII for this reason.
-Russia has formed alliances with Iran and has been supplying them with weapons and their nuclear fuel.
-China and Russia have joined together to share coaches and training techniques to assist as their goal of "jointly defeating the U.S.A. in the 2008 Olympics in Beijing"
-China and Russia have run joint military exercises TOGETHER assisting each other to defeat a combined energy in what they called a "WAR ON TERROR" exercise. This was on the ? Peninsula? I can't remember but it was talked about on this site for a while. The exercise practiced using nuclear weapons as well.
-China has been searching the globe for energy resources. China tried to buy Unocal. They get oil from Libya, Venezuela, Iran, Canada, Turkey, Russia and many countries the U.S. sees as threats and enemies of the U.S.
-The U.S. warned China several months ago that oil is a global commodity and the price and who can pay it determines who gets the oil, and that they need to stop trying to secure the oil for themselves with their oil contracts.
-Russia just showed Europe by constricting their natural gas exports that they have control over Europe and that Russia can control Europe by threatening to deprive them of their energy.
-I think Russia, China, India, Iran, and other countries may try to defeat and deprive the U.S. of its lifeblood (energy from oil and natural gas). This would be the first way they'd try to get an advantage in a war.

I think sides are being taken for the next big war when the oil begins to run out.

"You're either with US or with the TERRORISTS"

I think China, Russia, and India are going to be with the terrorists.

China, Russia, and India are joining with Iran, Venezuela, Syria, etc.
Iran has said that the world doesn't "NEED AMERICA AND ISRAEL ANYMORE." I think this alliance is going to try and see if they can defeat us in the future.

Does anybody remember what the book "THE ART OF WAR" is about?
The moral of the book is that the war is won before they begin by the actions taken beforehand. I think steps are being taken to get an upper hand NOW to get set up strategically for the next BIG WAR.

-The U.S. is trying to secure the oil resources so they keep flowing and that they can possibly by military might be directed our way instead of China's etc.
-The U.S. has been increasing the military budget for the "WAR ON TERROR" which I think is cover for the next big war. The same with the "War on TYRANNY"
-China is making ties with the U.S.'s enemies for energy.
-China single handedly is keeping interest rates low in America by buying up all of our debt. If China were to stop tomorrow the U.S. would have to raise interest rates a LOT to get buyers of our debt. Unfortunately the U.S. is weak economically for a war.
-Iran is going to try to open up an OIL BOURSE AT THE END OF MARCH to sell oil in a currency other than the dollar. Russia has also expressed interest in the idea. They said they're going to wait to see how it works for Iran. THIS WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO HAPPEN and WE WILL ATTACK IRAN BEFORE THE END OF MARCH. This will hurt the American dollar tremendously and begin an unstoppable downhill slide.
The U.S.'s alliance will be all of the countries that went into Iraq including Britain, Canada, Australia, Japan, and now I believe thank goodness France and Germany are joining the U.S.'s side.
France and Germany are actually two of the leaders in trying to deal with Iran right now.

I say just keep watching the world. I think we're in the beginning stages of the showdown.

Like Alin10213 said Taiwan and Japan with China could spark a showdown. I personally think that if there is an Iran showdown that China won't step in right now, but oh they want to. Russia, Iran, and China might have something up their sleeves, but I hope not. I think the U.S. is smart strategically to get into Iran now to take away Iran's ability to hold the world hostage as the oil resources begin to decline.

Let's hope the OIL MEN and WOMEN in office can pull it off.

There's a lot more going on behind the scenes than any of us know about. The world is a lot more dangerous than any of us can imagine. Not everyone are nice guys.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

It's almost like the old "COLD WAR" is coming back with Russia too.

Did anyone see that Russia tried to kill the PRO-U.S. candidate in the UKRAINE by poison! The man's face is scarred for life now.

Russia still hates us for killing their economy. Their economy was still bottoming out in 1999 when our economy was rocking. There was a lot more going on behind the scenes with the ogilarchs which supposedly the U.S. CIA had something to do with and helped raid the Russian companies.

Vladimir Putin is ex-KGB and is sending Russia more and more toward hardline communism and cracking down on free speech etc.

Russia will have a LOT OF POWER as the oil prices begin to go up more from peak oil as well. Their power to control their neighbors will also strengthen and it will be hard for the European countries that are tied by energy to help the U.S. if a showdown happens between CHINA, RUSSIA, IRAN, vs. the U.S. and its allies.

I agree Alin, there is more than meets the eyes going on.

We need more flag waving but the U.S. is so divided now. Bush has pissed so many people off unfortunately that America isn't united enough I'm afraid to fight a big one. Let's hope we can put aside our political differences and fight jointly and patriotically if we're called on to do so.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Plus does anyone remember when Chalabi was found to have been giving secrets to Iran?

He had to go testify in front of congress.

Everyone in the Bush administration was in love with Chalabi and he was well trusted. They wanted him to be the next leader of Iraq.

Rumor is that after the Iraq war started that someone in the Bush administration was out having drinks with Chalabi and slipped up and told him that the U.S. was listening to all of Iran's military communications because the U.S. had cracked their codes. They also told Chalabi supposedly that the U.S. had plans to attack Iran as well, which is a member of the "AXIS OF EVIL".

Supposedly within two days of this conversation with Chalabi Iran quit using those codes and it has set the U.S. back years in their intelligence gathering with Iran. Chalabi was never trusted again and was later testifying in congress.

Also from Congressman Weldon's book "Countdown to Terror", Curt Weldon thinks from a source he has in Iran that Osama Bin Laden is in Iran.

Curt Weldon's intel source also says that Iran is much farther along with their nuke program and they want to get a nuke across the Mexican border and blast a U.S. city. This might start the big war!

Jet

 

[(o) (o)]

If anyone is interested in reading a book on the future of oil production and PEAK OIL I suggest reading this book:

Here is a link to it at amazon.com: The End of Oil : On the Edge of a Perilous New World by Paul Roberts. You can read the reviews on the book there. Readers have given it 4 1/2 out of 5 stars average.

It will be one of the most enlightening books you EVER READ. You will look at the world differently I promise.

Plus if we're not careful this is why we're going to fight WWIII. Once you learn the scope of this issue, you'll agree.

This book is the most non-doomsday books on peak oil I have read. There are about twenty other books out there about peak oil production if you guys get interested. This book just gives you the facts about oil's inevitable future decline and why oil is going to be so difficult to replace. There is just so much dang energy in a barrel of oil. Nothing compares except nuclear.

Jet

Great book indeed, I highly recommend anyone burning fossil fuel for a living to read it.

 

[jetflyer]

I was just reading the blog www.theoildrum.com and I was surprised to see that they were just talking about the same thing we were here with China. Here is the quote from the blog:

.China as the US, or vice versa?

Posted by Yankee on Tue Jan 24 at 6:37 PM EST
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: China, sustainability, peak oil (all tags)

I don't usually read Kunstler's weekly blog post for much more than its entertainment value, but yesterday he had a post that made me pause just a little longer than usual.


He points out two quotes from Robert Reich, Clinton's Secretary of Labor, from NPR's Marketplace last week (Real Audio version of interview here):

"As China grows -- at the current rate it's growing, in twenty or thirty years -- and becomes the number one largest economy in the world, I think China may become our nemesis."
...
"As China, over the next twenty, thirty years, grows and prospers, a lot of Americans are gonna say, now, wait a minute. . . ! The endgame, we hope, is more and more economic integration, a Chinese middle class that is more and more prosperous, that is able to buy things from the United States, that looks a little bit more like middle-class Americans live, and therefore is not so different from us."

​

There's more... (325 words) | Comments (17) | Permalink



Then Kunstler offers his take on Reich's opinion:

Note to Mr. Reich and the rest of the people he is smoking opiated hashish with: you've got it backwards. Over the next twenty, thirty years America gets to be more and more like Chinese peasant life in 1949. Why? Because neither America nor China (nor anybody else) can continue running industrial economies the way we have been, or even a substantial fraction of that way, in an energy-starved world. Nor will anybody come up with a miracle technological rescue remedy to keep all the motors humming.​

This virtual "exchange" (since it's not like these guys were talking to each other) brought to mind a few questions:

1. Is Chinese growth (if it continues at a similar rate) really going to cause it to resemble American society?
2. Does Reich mean they're going to become our nemesis because we're fighting for the same limited energy resources? If that's what he means, why not say it more explicitly?

Reich says at the beginning of the interview that Americans like to have a nemesis (it seems to be just a general thing). But there has to be a reason—some way to justify it to the people—be it communism or terrorism, or something else. I doubt we'll go back to being worried about the spread of communism, so maybe energy will fit the bill after all. But the government is already downplaying, and even hiding the fact that our involvement in the Middle East probably has a lot to do with oil, so at what point are we just going to start admitting it outright? Only when the shortages come, or will the escalation of military action against either China or other Middle East counties happen earlier than that, thereby forcing the government to 'fess up? Just a lot of speculation, of course, but I wanted to give Kunstler his due credit for making me wonder.

Even with the oil sands(only predicted to be at most 4 million barrels per day in 6 years which is factored in the peak oil predictions) and the coal there is not enough for us to share and to continue our growth at 4% per year especially as oil declines. Plus the oil sands like ATPcliff said takes a LOT of natural gas to get the oil out of the sands, which we don't have enough of. It will be limited a lot, especially since natural gas in N. America is supposed to start going up a lot in the near future as we reach PEAK NATURAL GAS IN NORTH AMERICA. It's supposed to be an earlier problem in N.America than PEAK OIL according to Kunstler, Matthew Simmons, Colin Campbell, etc.

Also there are more children below the age of 14 in China than there are people in the U.S. (300 million+)!! These people are all gonna want to drive cars one day. There's not enough.....for us to share.

Jet

 

[Andy]

Jetflyer, you have a lot of passion for the peak oil theory. While I see merit in the concept that available oil will decrease, this may be a blessing in disguise.
I did a report back in 1978, at the end of the Arab oil embargo, on the feasibility of alternative fuels. What I determined after a great deal of research is that we will convert to more expensive sources of fuel as the price of oil increases. I looked long and hard at alcohol fuels, but found that the BTUs per gallon were much less than gasoline. Ethanol contains around 85K BTU/gal vs approx 115K BTU/gal for gasoline. Back in the late 70s, it cost north of $2.50/gal to produce ethanol; I'm sure that the cost has increased in the intervening years.
One thing that I found very interesting is that Brazil developed quite a large ability to produce ethanol (they produce a lot of sugar cane) and had many vehicles running on 90% ethanol/10% gasoline blend; opposite of the 10% ethanol/90% gasoline blend known as gasohol in the US. It required retuning carbuerators and changing out some fuel lines and tanks (ethanol is more corrosive than gasoline), but from my studies, the cars ran fine.

The problem that I see with peak oil concerns is that it is assumed that consumption will not be able to decrease as supply diminishes. I expect the world to shift toward nuclear, solar, and other alternative fuels as the supply of oil diminishes. While it's not good news, it's also not the end of civilization as we know it.

 

[maru657]

It's spooky that "JetFlyer" might have hit the nail on the head, at least as far as the chickenhawks surrounding little bush think. There's always reasons to start another war and if not just invent them.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

If oil does run out (or at least decrease drastically) will not the Earth's population change with it?
The planet can support X number of people under given conditions, change the conditions, change "X", Correct?
No more oil, no more than 1 billion people alive at a time for example.

 

[Clyde]

Horse and buggies.

 

[BoilerUP]

I predict the end of oil production will make Americans healthier than they have ever been, as we are forced to WALK, BIKE, or ride mass transit to our destinations.

I also predict the end of oil production will destroy my aviation career and relegate me to being a farmer and hunter on a small farm in Central Kentucky :nuts: