Oil Prices Increase on Supply Concerns

[jetflyer]

The Oil Prices continue to increase for the same reasons as a week ago.

They settled at 68.35 on Friday. They will probably pass the peak price after Hurricane Katrina soon and then go down for a while, until they once again head in the inevitable direction we'll see for years to come as OIL BEGINS TO RUN OUT.

Matthew Simmons, a Bush and Cheney friend, advisor to Cheney on the TOP SECRET ENERGY POLICY, and author of one of the latest books talking about peak oil and how the world is about to start running out of the black goo, bet one of the news anchors on CNBC $5,000 that we'd see $200 PER BARREL OF OIL by the end of 2010. He was also on Fox News with Neil Cavuto and CNN with Lou Dobbs saying the same things about the world getting VERY CLOSE NOW to reaching peak oil and beginning the decline in oil production. God help us all if he's right.

One of the main reasons for the recent price hike is that Nigeria is seeing a lot of chaos and trouble and a lot of oil production has been halted.

Also today it has been found that Kuwait does not have as much oil as they previously have stated. In an oil journal they say that Kuwait has about 1/3-1/2 as much oil as previously stated. When Saudi Arabia says the same thing soon, like is predicted in many peak oil books, the world is really going to wake up. The reason for these books' predictions can be found at this link along with THE BEST DESCRIPTION I'VE EVER SEEN FOR PEAK OIL:

www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426


Iran of course is also a big issue.

The industrialized countries including even France are realizing that Iran needs to be dealt with and quickly, especially before peak oil is passed. The world has a lot of oil now but 5 years from now that will be a different picture and the world can't let Iran hold the world oil markets ransom as oil becomes more scarce.

Oil is just too important for economies and the world can't let a mad man like the one running Iran control that much oil and the Straight of Hormuz.

If Iran closes the Straight of Hormuz there will be not only Iran's 4 million barrels gone from the world but also Saudi Arabia's 9.5 million barrels a day.

Iran has also said that if they are threatened they will close the straight. The U.S. and its FIVE carrier battle groups in the area will not allow this to happen though.

Since I'm becoming pessimistic that we've waited too long for alternative energy sources to matter I'm becoming more militant in my thinking every day and I realize that war is the ONLY ANSWER that the U.S. has to keep its oil flowing. But unfortunately future wars could also bring about the downfall of the U.S.

Damned if we go to more wars, damned if we don't. There is no good answer.

The best answer would have been to begin alternatives back in the 1970's!!!!! Well now thanks to all the retards that run America, we're about to live the 1970's all over again with the oil problems again, but unfortunately the 70's were just just a gentle test run for the real thing that we're about to see with insane future oil price rises, rising inflation and interest rates, and hopefully not a severe economic depression.

What's scary in my mind is I see that I'm becoming more and more like a war-mongering neo-con like Bush and Cheney every day. God help me.

I say bring on Iran. Bring on Venezuela and Hector Hugo Chavez. We just better win, have an INTERNATIONAL COALITION, and have a better plan to keep the oil flowing and keep the peace. Iraq has been such a collosal fudge up and embarrasment to the U.S. We can't let another Iraq happen, but we need to take action in the world.

So I say "Let's roll"

God help us,

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Thought you guys would find this new Peak Oil article interesting. It is from: http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/2006/0120.html

. Peak Oil: On the Verge Of Hitting Prime Time
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]by Joe Duarte, MD
Joe-Duarte.com & IntelligentForecasts.com
[FONT=tahoma,verdana,arial]January 20, 2006[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Editor’s note:[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]The concept of peak oil is well known to readers of FinancialSense.com, and listeners of the Financial Sense Newshour. But, for people outside of investment and political circles, it is barely a blip on the radar screen of daily living.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]In this article, Dr. Duarte explores a subtle but important shift in reporting the Peak Oil phenomenon.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]This article was originally published on January 18, 2006, at www.joe-duarte.com.[/FONT]

[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Today's Analysis: Peak Oil: On The Verge Of Hitting Prime Time[/FONT]​

[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Some time within the next twenty years, perhaps as early as 2008, world oil production will peak, and life as we know it will change. This seems to be the emerging consensus being rapidly embraced by the academic and trading community in some circles.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]One scientist, the University of Reading's Dr Roger Bentley, the secretary of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, told the audience that "the evidence is irrefutable. He points out that 64 of the world's 100 or so oil-producing countries are already past the point of peak production and on the downward slope. Although there may be a "mini-glut" as output is stepped up from Russia, the Caspian and Iraq and new sources come on stream such as deepwater oil and oilsands, the trend, he says is unmistakable."[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]According to the U.K.'s Independent, at a London conference organized by the Dutch investment bank Insinger de Beaufort, a rather bleak set of data was emerging.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Dr. Bentley allows for some slippage in the numbers, but told the audience at the conference: "Dr Bentley believes that non-Opec production will reach a peak within the next 30 months while global output will start to decline between 2010 and 2015 or 2020 at the latest depending on the contribution from non-conventional sources such as oilsands."[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Dr. Bentley sounds pessimistic. But there were others who sounded darker tones: "Dr. Jeremy Leggett, an oil industry geologist turned environmental campaigner turned chief executive of a solar energy company, paints an even more apocalyptic scene. He believes that peak oil will occur some time this decade. That will not only produce "horrible economic pain" as oil prices rise to choke off demand but it will also precipitate environmental disaster as oil-consuming countries switch to coal and hasten global warming. "[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Indeed, the paper stated: "As the oil price nudged above $64 a barrel yesterday on heightened concerns about disruption to supplies from Iran and Nigeria, a small group of geologists, economists and commodity traders was meeting in London to consider a more fundamental question: when will the world begin to run out of oil?"[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]To be sure, the usual disagreements still abound. "Some commentators believe that moment may be as little as two years away, some reckon we do not need to worry for another 20 years and some think the peak of production is so far in the distance that it is pointless to even try to put a timescale on it."[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Familiar readers, and those who listen to our weekly radio spot on the Financial Sense News Hour with Jim Puplava, know that several significant books on Peak Oil, and is consequences, have been written. Ken Deffeyes' "Hubbert's Peak," really started the whole movement, while Matthew Simmons' "Twilight In The Dessert," with its comprehensive data analysis and conclusion that Saudi oil fields are running dry, are at the forefront of the peak oil philosophy.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]But, as the Independent points out, what's really important is what happens, if and when peak oil does indeed arrive since "its impact on the world economy - and the consumer lifestyles so many of us take for granted - will be profound."[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Think about these two points culled from the Independent's article for a minute:[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]1. "Oil is essential to almost everything we do - 90 per cent of world transport is oil-dependent; all petrochemicals are produced from oil; 99 per cent of our food relies on oil in some way, either to grow it or get the produce to market; and 95 per cent of lubricants are oil-based."[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]2. "And, in many cases, oil is not easily replaceable. There are no realistic alternatives to oil for fuelling aircraft and ships, producing petrochemicals or powering cars, without massive investments in technology such as hydrogen."[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Raging Arguments Hide Facts[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]The Independent summarizes the two sides of the debate quite succinctly.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]On one side: "there are geologists who argue it is almost upon us or shortly will be, based on analyzing past production and discovery rates and field exhaustion and extrapolating into the future."[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]And on the other: "there are economists, political scientists and the oil majors who believe that oil producers - be they governments or companies - will always find a way to meet demand, whether through cleverer ways of finding and extracting oil or greater fiscal incentives to discover and produce more."[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Our own view, which is slowly shifting more toward the geologist's side of the equation is that the easy oil has been found, and that any new oil, of which there may still be plenty of, will be so expensive to find and to extract, that there would be little profit for producers, middlemen, or retailers, making the whole thing moot.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]As we've stated many times - why would anyone spend $100 dollars to get a barrel of oil out of the ground in Nigeria, Indonesia, Venezuela, or Iran, under a steady rain of bullets, if they could only sell it for $70?[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Conclusion[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]Oil production is slowing. Prices have been rising. And the Peak Oil movement is gathering steam.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]So far, this is "inside baseball," within investing and scientific circles, with some mention in the mainstream media.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]But, at least in the U.S., there have been no headlines in the National Enquirer about the end of oil, nor has there been a highly promoted piece on 60 Minutes, Nightline, or 20/20 on this subject.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]That is the next logical step, though, as the story gathers steam.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]One thing is certain. Peak oil is working on becoming a reality. Whether it comes because there is no oil left to produce, or whether it comes because oil companies aren't willing to take the huge risks now needed to get at the stuff, doesn't really matter.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,verdana]In other words, if you can't get it, or you won't get it, you still don't get it. And splitting hairs over this won't matter much, if it gets to the point where we sit in cold, dark houses, as we watch our cars rust.[/FONT]

Jet

 

[JBFlyer]

Cats and dogs living together.....guess we're all doomed!!

It is important to start looking more into alternate fuels, but I can't stand the knee-jerk reactions from analysts and the market.

 

[jetflyer]

Kuwait lied to the world for decades about how much oil they had

JB,
I hope we're not all doomed !!

There has just been bad news after bad news for the oil markets lately. Nigeria has a LOT of oil production shut down, which is the U.S.'s fifth largest supplier.

Also there are more people learning about Peak oil every day and realizing $68.30 per barrel of oil is cheap.

Also Iran is scary for the oil markets. We will take action against Iran either militarily or with sanctions and either method could take a large chunk of Iran's 4 million barrels a day of oil off the world markets. Heck that's about 5% of the world's total output of 84 million barrels per day.

None of this helps when there is no spare capacity for oil in the world. Every country is pumping oil as fast as they can and it's barely enough.

Developments in Kuwait also shook the oil markets Friday and the price HAD TO GO UP ON THIS NEWS. There is proof that KUWAIT HAS LIED TO THE WORLD FOR DECADES ABOUT HOW MUCH OIL THEY HAD.

Unfortunately all of the OPEC countries have LIED TO THE WORLD ABOUT HOW MUCH OIL THEY HAVE.

From http://www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426 which I consider to be the best description of the PEAK OIL problem:

Refer to the article for the figure they are referencing for this quote:

Before we leave that curve, though, I want to point out that a sudden jump of 300–400 billion barrels of oil in OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) reserves occurs in the late 1980s (see figure 3, left-hand graph, above). But there were no significant discoveries of oil in OPEC countries during that period. What happened instead is that OPEC changed its quota for how much each country could pump on the basis of what it claimed in reserves, and politicians discovered 400 billion barrels of oil without ever drilling a hole in the ground! This helps us to understand how undependable these numbers are for worldwide proven oil reserves.

Like the quote says, the Opec countries changed the method back in the late 1980's for determining how much oil each OPEC country could pump per day and all of the OPEC countries all of a sudden started lying to the world about how much oil they had. ALL THE OPEC COUNTRIES DON'T HAVE AS MUCH OIL AS THEY CLAIM.

Here is the major reason for the spike in prices Friday:
From http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=231520

.Brent rises $2 after Kuwait reserve report
Fri Jan 20, 2006 20:18 PM ET
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - London Brent crude futures rose $2 on Friday to its highest level since early September after a report that Kuwait's oil reserves are only half those officialy stated.
March Brent <LCOc1> rose $2.01 to $67.24 a barrel after industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) reported it had seen internal Kuwaiti records showing that Kuwait's reserves were about 48 billion barrels, compared to the officially stated 99 billion barrels.
Ahead of the report, Brent had already gained $1.50 on mounting concern about supply from Iran and Nigeria had already fuelled a rally of $1.50.

Kuwait supposedly had 10% of the world's oil. So I guess they only have about 5% of the world's oil now! Wait till Saudi Arabia's oil reserve totals are questioned. We'll see more than a $2.00 rise in the price of oil.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Remember last summer when I said refineries were the least of our problems with oil?

I truly believe the reason we don't have more refineries being built is because the oil companies know they won't ever need more refining capacity than they have right now because of peak oil. EVER.

They're all ENERGY companies now instead of OIL companies, for a reason.

Beyond Petroleum is what BP is calling itself now for a reason.

Exxon admits that Non-Opec oil will peak prior to 2010 in their oil reports for the world.

Citgo is a Venezuelan company. By the way we get our third most oil from Venezuela behind only Canada and Mexico. The leader of Venezuela is Hugo Chavez. Hugo Chavez has told the U.N. that he has proof that the U.S. is going to invade and occupy Venezuela. He got a standing ovation at the U.N. Chavez has also said that the world is already in WWIII and they don't even know it.

Chevron admits we're getting close to Peak Oil. Go to Chevron's www.willyoujoinus.com site and you'll see a discussion right now going on about what to do to replace oil.

Here is a darning quote from Chevron on the SUPPLY section of the site:

Fossil fuels currently supply most of the world’s energy, and are expected to continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
1 While supplies are currently abundant, they won’t last forever.
2 Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries,
3 yet energy demand is increasing around the globe as economies grow and nations develop.
4 Abundant energy drives economic development, which in turn creates demand for still more energy.
5 But it also puts pressure on supply and impacts the environment.
Where does our fuel come from, how is our energy supply and the sources of energy changing, and what can we expect in the future?

33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries have already passed their individual Peak Oil. When will the world pass its peak oil?

I believe around 2010, but the price will be going way up well before the peak, like now.

We need to conserve and develop USEFUL alternatives now, before it's too late.

THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING OUR WORLD.

I'm pissed it's not being talked about more and this is one reason why I'm screaming from the hills, and no I'm no chicken little

Change is coming.

Jet

 

[PCL_128]

I am one that thinks we are in the beginning stages of many showdowns for oil resources with other nations, possibly leading to WWIII. Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela(U.S.'s third largest oil supplier) are just the beginning. It's when China and the U.S. get into a conflict that things will get interesting. The great game of trying to acquire the world's last remaining resources for ourselves has just begun.

Oh and there's a reason that China is building its military faster than anyone has since WWII. They plan on having to use it soon.

Jet

Just when I thought the peak-oil loons couldn't get any crazier, along comes jetflyer with his WWIII predictions. Try not to lose too much sleep over it jetflyer.

 

[jetflyer]

Thanks PCL for worrying about me, but I don't lose sleep anymore about peak oil. It's reality to me now.

When I first learned about Peak Oil back in May of last year from the www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net site I don't think I got more than 4 hours sleep for about 2 weeks.

I was studying everything I could to learn more and to convince myself that it wasn't going to be that bad. I've read 5 books on the subject and hundreds of articles and thousands on thousands of web postings at www.peakoil.com and a great blog titled www.theoildrum.com
Unfortunately, I can't convince myself that there's not going to be dramatic worldwide changes.

The countries of the world are going to compete for this diminishing resource in wars if they can't come to agreements on how to share the last of it.

God help us,

Jet

 

[B-J-J Fighter]

I looked at the link to "Life after the Crash". Kinda scary IF this peak oil theory happens in our lifetime.

 

[jetflyer]

I looked at the link to "Life after the Crash". Kinda scary IF this peak oil theory happens in our lifetime.

B-J-J,
Just realize that Matthew Savinar, is as big of a doomsdayer as there is on Peak Oil.

Most intelligent analysts don't think we're going back to the stone age like him, they just think we'll have severe economic problems.

I only post his work, because I hope it will cause you to learn more and spread the word so that more Americans like you and Republican Congressman from Maryland Roscoe Bartlett will try to educate others that we need to take action now. Bartlett has given about 5 speeches to Congress and each has been on C-Span about peak oil.

He quotes the life after the oil crash site all the time in his speeches.

We need more good politicians like him to tell the truth and educate the masses now so that we can make the necessary changes in our energy consumption and oil usage, while we still have time.

Jet

 

[PCL_128]

I looked at the link to "Life after the Crash". Kinda scary IF this peak oil theory happens in our lifetime.

This peak-oil nonsense is about as likely to happen as the global destruction as a result of global warming that all of the "experts" and goody-goody celebrities warned was going to happen years ago. I remember hearing things like "all of the world's sea life will be dead by 1995 if we don't do something," and "Florida and New York will be underwater by the turn of the century because of global warming." Of course, here we are in the year 2006 and nothing bad has happened. The media conveniently forgets all of the scary predictions because they espoused them in the first place and they don't want to look wrong. Of course, they continue to spread any new environmental alarmism that they can find. Guys like jetflyer will still be saying the same old crap about peak-oil in 40 years when we are all still burning fossil fuels with no problems. Of course, he'll conveniently leave out the fact that he was saying the same things 40 years before and was completely wrong. Alarmists and conspiracy theorists never seem to be held accountable for their wacky assertions.