Oil Prices Increase on Supply Concerns

[Andy]

Jetflyer, you have a lot of passion for the peak oil theory. While I see merit in the concept that available oil will decrease, this may be a blessing in disguise.
I did a report back in 1978, at the end of the Arab oil embargo, on the feasibility of alternative fuels. What I determined after a great deal of research is that we will convert to more expensive sources of fuel as the price of oil increases. I looked long and hard at alcohol fuels, but found that the BTUs per gallon were much less than gasoline. Ethanol contains around 85K BTU/gal vs approx 115K BTU/gal for gasoline. Back in the late 70s, it cost north of $2.50/gal to produce ethanol; I'm sure that the cost has increased in the intervening years.
One thing that I found very interesting is that Brazil developed quite a large ability to produce ethanol (they produce a lot of sugar cane) and had many vehicles running on 90% ethanol/10% gasoline blend; opposite of the 10% ethanol/90% gasoline blend known as gasohol in the US. It required retuning carbuerators and changing out some fuel lines and tanks (ethanol is more corrosive than gasoline), but from my studies, the cars ran fine.

The problem that I see with peak oil concerns is that it is assumed that consumption will not be able to decrease as supply diminishes. I expect the world to shift toward nuclear, solar, and other alternative fuels as the supply of oil diminishes. While it's not good news, it's also not the end of civilization as we know it.

 

[maru657]

It's spooky that "JetFlyer" might have hit the nail on the head, at least as far as the chickenhawks surrounding little bush think. There's always reasons to start another war and if not just invent them.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

If oil does run out (or at least decrease drastically) will not the Earth's population change with it?
The planet can support X number of people under given conditions, change the conditions, change "X", Correct?
No more oil, no more than 1 billion people alive at a time for example.

 

[Clyde]

Horse and buggies.

 

[BoilerUP]

I predict the end of oil production will make Americans healthier than they have ever been, as we are forced to WALK, BIKE, or ride mass transit to our destinations.

I also predict the end of oil production will destroy my aviation career and relegate me to being a farmer and hunter on a small farm in Central Kentucky :nuts:

 

[jetflyer]

Everyone,
Lots of good points.

The problem with ethanol is that it takes 11 acres of corn to produce enough ethanol to power a car for a year. If you really insist I know where to find the study.

Plus Sugarcane is a good source for a bio-fuel. Brazil doesn't have lobbying groups like the U.S. does. CORN IS A HORRIBLE BIO-FUEL. It has been proven to cost almost more in energy than you get out of it. This is because FERTILIZERS AND PESTICIDES are made from fossil fuels!, not to mention the refrigeration, powering the equipment to harvest the crops etc, all REQUIRE fossil fuels.

Since it takes more fossil fuels to make the ethanol, you might as well just convert the coal used in the process to fuel, or use the natural gas used to make the fertilizers and pesticides to power our vehicles.

The better bio-fuels are ALGAE BY FAR, switchgrass, palm, and several others, but THEY DON'T HAVE POWERFUL LOBBYING GROUPS and EVERYONE KNOWS THE POLITICIANS NEED IOWA'S VOTE!! Oh you have to hate this....

Anybody that wants to learn more about bio-fuels and their progress should go to www.biodieselnow.com. The site talks about the efforts going on now to bring GOOD bio fuels to market. The site even has chat forums like here talking about the efforts to increase bio-fuels. Even soy is not that great only returning about 3 Times more energy than inputed. Algae on the other hand according to Mike Briggs from the UNH will get about 30 TIMES MORE ENERGY than the sum of the inputed fossil fuels. Algae rocks but can't get any government grants or money for investment!

If the problem ever becomes serious then ethanol from coal will hopefully END BEING MADE. It's a waste of time and money.

Wmusigpi,
What you said is what the doomsdayers on this subject predict. They think that replacement of fossil fuels will not be able to be done. That the world will experience famine, great depressions financially, breakdowns of society, and even good ole fun cannibalism in the extreme conditions. They think we'll revert to about 1 billion people on the planet as fossil fuels run out and that the 1 billion will live on alternatives as they increase.

I think we'll just have wars and that they've been planned already. I think they're unstoppable and that many want the wars to occur. The stakes have never been higher because we've backed our society into a fossil fuel dependent state where we're going to have no choice but to fight for the last remaining fossil fuels. Winner takes all. This is a very dangerous game. We better win. The loser will be the one living with the conditions I mentioned in the previous paragraph atleast until their civilization stabilizes at a lower fossil fuel using state. The winners will have the resources and their civilizations will thrive with plenty of cheap fossil fuels for years upon years.

Just wait and see. I think as the price of oil goes to $100 in a year or two and then to $200 in about 5-6 years like Cheney's advisor Matthew Simmons has been saying on CNBC, FOX NEWS, and CNN that Americans will GET DESPERATE and BEG OUR POLITICIANS TO "GO GET THE OIL FOR US". Americans will then elect anyone that promises to make things better even if it requires wars to go get us what we need. The wars will not end. I hope I'm wrong but I think there are people that want this to happen. God, I hope I'm wrong.

There really are just NO serious efforts going on right now to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. We burn through 20.5 million barrels per day IN THE U.S. ALONE! and import more than half of that. Even Alaska will only give us 1 million barrels per day. That will only be 5% of our usage. WE NEED TO DRILL IN ALASKA, but its not the savior everyone thinks it will be.

Shell is experimenting with turning the shale into oil, but they're not going to even have an experimental plant built for another 5 years or so!! Plus they don't plan on getting it up to 1 million barrels a day or so until 10-15 years! Plus the coal to oil plants haven't been built yet and take YEARS TO BUILD! Montana wants to build one but hasn't started yet. No new nuclear power plants have started to be built. What is going on!?? This is ridiculous and is why Roscoe Bartlett, Republican Congressman from Maryland is SCREAMING HIS HEAD OFF IN CONGRESS. He's been on CSPAN about 5-6 times now saying how WE'RE SCREWED IF WE DON'T START DEVELOPING ALTERNATIVES YESTERDAY. Yet we continue to do nothing.

Oh but we're securing Iraq's oil and Iran's and Venezuela's soon. I guess we are doing something I just hope the plan works because they're making it to where we have no PLAN B. This is very dangerous....

Jet

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Our civilization WILL change a lot, but hopefully in a positive direction rather than a negative one. I noticed that Branson is looking at alternative fuels for his Virgin airlines, and expects to not use oil for his airliners by 2030.

On another area that will affect the major airlines, NASA is predicting 20K of the VLJs flying by 2020. That'll siphon a lot of top dollars from the high-end customers that switch to VLJs.

CLiff
YIP

 

[jetflyer]

ATPCliff,
What are VLJ's?

It also sounds like Branson is becoming a "Peak Oiler".

I know that Warren Buffet(second richest man in America) is. He is moving a ton of his money into foreign cash because he thinks the U.S. dollar is going to crash soon. Plus Warren Buffet's SON is one of the founders of a company that performs THERMAL DEPOLYMERIZATION.

Thermal depolymerization turns any carbon based material into oil by accelerating the natural process that occurs in the ground. It puts a lot of PRESSURE and HEAT into items like WASTE TURKEY PARTS to turn them into OIL. This will thrive in the future and has benefited from provisions in the last Energy Policy.

A lot of investment into energy is what we need. Let's hope even Bill Gates gets into the business

Warren Buffet also said on CNBC that he wants to expand Berkshire Hathaway into the energy business by beginning NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS in the near future. Good for him. I hope he gets some built and makes money.

Jet

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Very Light Jets, like the Eclipse, the Adam A700, and the 2 new Embraer models. There are about 15 of them out there. Eclipse has orders for about 3000 of them.

Cliff
ABY

PS-I read info about a year ago about a company that makes artificial oil via high pressure/temp using biowaste. They are beyond the lab and have a working "oil" making machine at one of the Tysons chicken plants. That plant uses no or little outside energy, as each day all the bio-waste from the plant is turned into "oil" which is used to provide power.

I also read how power companies in GA are starting to introduce the nuclear option.

 

[Andy]

PS-I read info about a year ago about a company that makes artificial oil via high pressure/temp using biowaste. They are beyond the lab and have a working "oil" making machine at one of the Tysons chicken plants. That plant uses no or little outside energy, as each day all the bio-waste from the plant is turned into "oil" which is used to provide power.

I also read how power companies in GA are starting to introduce the nuclear option.

Back in the late 70s, the general consensus among those that wrote about energy consumption was that we will use the least expensive sources of energy first. After quite a bit of studying the subject, I reached the same conclusion.
I don't foresee a great depression as a result of peak oil. I do expect to see a steady erosion of Americans' quality of living due to a greater percentage our total expenditures going toward energy costs. I can see a future where many decide that the 4000 square foot ranch house isn't very practical for two people to live in due to heating and cooling costs.