Oil Prices Increase on Supply Concerns

[PCL_128]

PCL,

From your above statements, I gather that you really believe that oil is an infinite resource. Last i checked, oil is the remains of rotting, compressed dinosaurs, of which there were a finite number. Which of course means that oil will run out someday.

Now, some of the things stated in these articles may seem alarmist. But tell me, what is wrong with conservation? Reducing emissions? Cleaning up the enviroment? Finding alternative sources of fuel and energy sources? Oil WILL run out someday. And yes, 'Global Warming' is in fact a real thing, just because it snowed today outside your house or Rush says it ain't so doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

A very good friend of mine is a chemical engineer at BP, and has been in on corporate meetings there. What Jet is saying is quite true, maybe you should open your mind and listen i little bit on this subject.

Rekks

Of course oil isn't an infinite resource, but human ingenuity is infinitely capable of adapting to circumstances and solving problems. Right now, oil has not peaked, and therefore, the price is still reasonable enough to not motivate development of new energy technologies. As soon as oil really does start running out in the years ahead, there will be many alternatives developed. This is how the free market works, and it works very well. When the price of oil tops $150/bbl, you'll quickly see how capable the energy companies are of developing new energy technologies.

For right now, oil is the most economical source of energy. When that changes, then new technologies will replace it and the economies of scale will drive the price of that new energy source down. A simple example of this economic principal is easily evident in the hybrid vehicle. At current oil prices, hybrid vehicles do not make economic sense. As a result, only environmentalist wackos buy them. When the price of a gallon of gas tops $5.00, then it will make more sense to purchase a hybrid vehicle. The number of people buying hybrids will skyrocket, and economies of scale will allow the auto manufacturers to lower the price of a hybrid even more to broaden their market share. This is exactly how any new energy sources will be developed. The free market will take care of these problems, and besides a few small blips on the economic radar, the average person will feel no ill effects because of it. The peak-oil nuts would have you believe that people will just sit by and watch as oil prices continue to climb. That is not human nature. People will respond to rising prices by increasing investment in the study and development of new energy sources. Anyone with a decent understanding of economics would understand these principals. Of course, if you subscribe to the liberal democrat theories on economics, then I can understand why you are so confused by this.

 

[jetflyer]

Roscoe Bartlett, Republican Congressman from Maryland, is NOT an environmental wacko and he drives a Toyota Prius because he believes strongly in Peak OIL.

He knows the power that oil contains in every barrel and can comprehend that market forces are NOT GOING TO SAVE US.

We need to start working on this problem WELL BEFORE PEAK OIL occurs. NOW.

Below are links to speeches Roscoe Bartlett has given to congress and INFORMATION ABOUT HIS MEETING WITH GEORGE BUSH OUR PRESIDENT about peak oil. They are VERY EDUCATIONAL.

Roscoe Bartlett, Republican Congressman from Maryland gave this speech to Congress, broadcast on C-SPAN on July 19, 2005 about COMING OIL SUPPLY PROBLEMS(PEAK OIL).
Here is the transcript.:
www.xecu.net/thorn/PO/PO-July19-2005.html

April 19th Bartlett gave this speech to congress. This is a good speech to read and has visual aids,
www.bartlett.house.gov/SupportingFiles/documents/energyspeech.pdf

Roscoe Bartlett met with PRESIDENT George Walker Bush about Peak Oil on June 29th. So Bush, no doubt knows about the coming oil supply problems. Here is the press release:
www.bartlett.house.gov/latestnews.asp?ARTICLE2900=7308

Here is a quote from Roscoe:

“American needs a national energy policy and a program on a scale of the Manhattan Project that developed the atomic bomb during World War II to prevent or mitigate the consequences of global peak oil. To avoid a really bumpy ride, what we need to do is dramatically reduce our consumption. The cheapest oil is oil we don’t use. Second, we need to invest in greater energy efficiency. Third, we have to invest our limited resources of time and current energy sources to make rapid advances in the development of alternative, renewable sources of energy.”

Sorry that these speeches are so old. I haven't been keeping up with peak oil as much as I used to. The newer speeches he's given are similar and have pretty close to the same informaton. He's been educating congress and every congressman and senator no doubt thanks to him in the last year knows about this problem. Let's just hope they use their new knowledge, believe in it, and start acting on it.

The problem is real and we can't wait for the price to skyrocket BEFORE taking action. PCL you have too much trust in economics. This time market forces can not be relied on because the change from RISING SUPPLY TO THE PEAK AND DECLINING SUPPLY occurs SO QUICKLY.

Edited to add: ALTERNATIVES SIMPLY TAKE TOO LONG TO BRING TO MARKET AND WILL TAKE A DECADE OR MORE TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE UNLESS STARTED NOW.

Jet

 

[PCL_128]

PCL you have too much trust in economics.

Yep, I trust a proven system. We'll know in 40 years who was right. Like I said, I'm not worried. Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go fill up my gas-guzzling Chrysler 300C. Don't lose too much sleep over it now.

 

[jetflyer]

PCL_128,

According to www.peakoilclock.com the world will burn through the remaining ONE TRILLION BARRELS OF OIL in 30.5 years. THEN WE'LL BE OUT OF OIL.

Chevron even says at: http://www.willyoujoinus.com/advertising/print/

It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil.
We'll use the next trillion in 30.

So in 40 years PCL, I hope you'll consider driving something other than your Chrysler 300C!!

Oh yea you'll also have to find something to replace all plastics which are made from oil. Asphault is also made from oil. Oh yea tires too. Also almost all of our fertilizers and pesticides are made from fossil fuels. I hope we can replace those too with enough poo. Etc. etc. etc. there are just too many products made from fossil fuels to list them all. We are a fossil fuel society.

Check out for yourself when we'll run out of oil. They have a countdown clock on the main page of the www.peakoilclock.com site.

They say they figure out how many years are left based on the estimated not proven reserves remaining worldwide compared with daily consumption, the number of years left of oil.

Plus the world increases oil usage by 2-3% per year.

We don't even know if there are a TRILLION BARRELS OF OIL LEFT. That is just an estimate that requires a lot of future discoveries of oil!

The world burns through 84 million barrels of oil per day!!
That's 30.66 BILLION BARRELS OF OIL PER YEAR!!
That's 1.288 Trillion Gallons of gasoline equivalent a year!!

Every Barrel has 42 gallons of gasoline/jet fuel/heating oil/kerosene/diesel etc.

This stuff is not going to be easy to replace.

We need to start now.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Oh I forgot to add though that it doesn't matter when you run out of oil.

I hope from some of the articles I've posted that you've all learned that what matters is when you reach peak oil and begin to decline which will happen when about half the oil has been used up. We're very close now to this point.

When we reach peak oil in about 2010 the price will go up tremendously until supply=demand. As supply goes down, more demand will have to be destroyed by higher prices to make them equal.

The poor of the world will be the first affected because they will not be able to afford the $5.00/gallon gasoline. Then more won't be able to afford it when the price goes to $6.00 then $7.00 etc.

Jet

 

[Rekks Inbound]

PCL,

First of all, thanks for a non-emotional response. These days, on these boards, these discussions turn into a bash-fest way to often.

For many years (in fact, since before I was legal to vote), I prescribed to the conservative way of thinking, ie: lower taxes, less government and free-market economies. And even today, I still follow these principles.

I believe what Jet is trying to say is that although there is nothing wrong with free market economies, that the supply of oil on this planet is drying up at a rapid rate. Theoretically, the supply should last until most of us are retired from this industry. But what should be a priority for this country is an Apollo-style project to create reliable, renewable sources of energy, preferrably ones that have minimal enviromental impact. I believe what he is saying is why not get a head start? Free market economies don't react as fast as you would think. (by the way, minored in econ., freemarket in not the panacea you think it is, but neither is a more socialist model, either).

Republicans and Democrats alike react the same way when running the federal gov't.: they are reactionary. They need to take the lead on this issue, and maybe make it economically desirable to the oil companies to begin this research and development. Bush just gives lip service to it, Clinton put it on the back burner, Kerry said he had a plan (that no one could understand). The money wasted in Iraq could have paid for this several times over, and our guys wouldn't have had to spend all that time in the sand.

To sum up, this country needs to get it's priorities straight.

Rekks

 

[jetflyer]

I believe what Jet is trying to say is that although there is nothing wrong with free market economies, that the supply of oil on this planet is drying up at a rapid rate. Theoretically, the supply should last until most of us are retired from this industry.

Rekks

Actually what I'm saying is BAD TIMES BEGIN and the price begins really going up when we run out of HALF THE OIL OR REACH "PEAK OIL".

Read this and you'll understand why:
http://www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426 which I consider to be the best description of the PEAK OIL problem.

WE HAVE A LOT OF OIL LEFT.
THAT'S NOT THE PROBLEM.

HITTING PEAK OIL (THE HALF WAY POINT) IS THE PROBLEM. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND.

Jet

 

[linecheck]

jet,

Seems like you know what you're talking about. Are you aware of any programs by jet engine manufacturers to make a "non-fossile fuel" propulsion system? Just curious.

linecheck

 

[jetflyer]

There is technology now to turn coal to oil.

We need to hurry and make these plants. Montana's governor wants to make one.

We can then turn the oil from the coal into jetfuel. This will be our immediate future. We have a lot of coal, but we have to make sure we use carbon sequestration to get the bad stuff out of the coal before we use it.

As far as a non-fossil fuel future. Well there is a group trying to make hydrogen aircraft. But they require HUGE tanks, like the same size as the cabin of the aircraft. I've seen pictures from people with ideas on what they'd look like and imagine an Airbus A360 where the entire upperdeck is the fuel tank!

Also almost all hydrogen is MADE from Natural gas. You might as well just use the natural gas! If the hydrogen is instead made from windmill electricity, solar, or NUCLEAR, then we're talking about good stuff. According to the laws of thermodynamics ENERGY IS LOST IN THE TRANSFORMATION no matter what.

EDITED TO ADD: Something else I've been following is zero point energy. There is a lot of hope they can tap into dark matter and power everything we need to power. This is a little sci-fi but there are people claiming they've already gotten it to work a little bit and that it will be almost infinite power. Let's hope!! We'll be able to fly our planes, drive our cars, heat our homes, etc. with it.

Look here for information on zero point energy:
http://www.zpenergy.com/

BOEING AND L. MARTIN ARE TRYING TO SEE IF THEY CAN GET THIS TO WORK.

There was another good website on zpe but I can't find it right now. I hope they can find out how to save the world

Conspiracy theorists say ZPE is what drives the government's test U.F.O.'s at Area 51. OK great now you all really think I'm a conspiracy theorist!

Ok I admit I listen to too much CoasttocoastAM with George Noory and Art Bell!

Well gotta run and can't post any more so see ya later,
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Here is a scary article I found from
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htm:

.Weekly Column - 01.20.2006

[FONT=Times New Roman, Times]Peak Oil and Civilization's Decline​

[/FONT][FONT=Times New Roman, Times]by J. R. Nyquist[/FONT]

Oil is a limited resource and the world is using it up. In fact, oil production may be peaking now, with dire consequences to come. This is the thesis of James Kunstler, a noted critic of America’s suburban sprawl. His book is titled The Long Emergency. According to Kunstler, the world faces an unparalleled crisis. Food production, industrial efficiency, heating and transportation depend on oil production. And oil production is about to enter a period of irreversible decline. Kunstler views “the period ahead as one of generalized and chronic contraction.” Civilization conceived as economic progress cannot continue. Technology cannot save us because it will take decades to build new energy technologies for operating cars, trucks, aircraft and ships. “This is a much darker time than … the eve of World War II,” wrote Kunstler. “The current world population of 6.5 billion has no hope whatsoever of sustaining itself at current levels, and the fundamental conditions of life are about to force the issue."

After reading the first few chapters of Kunstler’s The Long Emergency I called a geologist friend who’d worked in the oil business. “So what do you think of peak oil?” I asked. His reply was somewhat optimistic: “Higher oil prices will spur new technology.” He then pointed to oil shale extraction technology. “ I’m not worried about running out of oil,” he said, “but I am worried about the geopolitics of oil.”
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]Curious about my friend’s reference to oil shale, I did some non-geological digging. According to the Energy Minerals Division of the Association of Petroleum Geologists, “Total world resources of oil shale are conservatively estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels.” It is useful to remember that, according to Kunstler (p. 49), “The earth’s total endowment of liquid petroleum was estimated to be roughly two trillion barrels.”[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]Oil shale is currently being exploited by China, Brazil and Estonia. Between 1980 and 1991, Unocal operated a large-scale experimental shale mining and retorting facility in the United States that produced 4.5 million barrels of oil. Shell (oil company) has developed a method for exploiting oil shale called “in situ conversion,” discussed in a Sept. 2, 2005 Rocky Mountain News column. According to James M. Taylor, managing editor of Environment & Climate News, “several major oil companies” are considering ventures “to extract oil from large oil shale deposits in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming.” These deposits may contain more potential energy than the world’s proven crude oil reserves. The economics of oil shale is fairly straightforward. According to Terry O’Connor (a vice president at Shell): if the price of crude stays consistently above $30 per barrel then oil shale becomes profitable.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]There may be a problem with oil shale, however. The oil companies plan to wait another four years before they decide to extract oil from oil shale. The problem with peak oil is the lag-time between a devastating and unpredicted drop in oil production and bringing new technologies on line. Nobody knows if oil production will start to decline this year or next year or ten years from now. Since massive investment in new technologies must occur two decades in advance of peak oil (according to one government study), and peak oil may be occurring now, the world economy faces a grave potential crisis.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]In the Winter 2005/06 issue of The National Interest, former U.S. Energy Secretary James Schlesinger wrote dismissively of present difficulties in oil production. Taking an optimistic position, he does not believe that peak oil has arrived. “There is a mismatch between the types of crude available and what refiners are able to process,” he explained. This situation came about because excess refining capacity has existed for decades and there was, he wrote, “only a modest incentive to invest in additional capacity.” According to Schlesinger: “knowledgeable analysts believe that the world will, over the next several decades, reach a peak – or plateau – in conventional oil production.” In making this statement, Schlesinger sited Robert L. Hirsch’s “The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production.” But Hirsch’s Dec. 7, 2005, testimony before Congress does not endorse this claim. According to Hirsch, “It is possible that peaking may not occur for a decade or more, but it is also possible that peaking may be occurring right now.”[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]One government study indicates that a steady 4 percent decline on global crude production would cost millions of American jobs and send the price of oil above $160.00 per barrel. “Chinese officials,” according to Hirsch, “have forecast the peaking of world oil production around the year 2012.” An irreversible contraction of the world economy, as we know it, would occur from that point forward (until new technologies came on line). According to Kunstler, “It would be reasonable to wonder whether the United States will continue to exist as a unified entity, and what kind of strife the Long Emergency could ignite region by region,” Think of the windowless office buildings of Los Angeles and Phoenix without cheap energy to run air conditioners. Think of the commuters and the distances they drive, day after day, between home and work. “The American West, especially the Southwest, may suffer inordinately for several reasons,” wrote Kunstler. “Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, parts of Texas, Utah, and Colorado have been made habitable solely because of cheap energy.”[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]Political destabilization is indicated. Global war is likely. The rise of totalitarian regimes of the left and right may be expected.[/FONT]

UHHH, I say start getting the OIL SHALE OUT NOW!!! WHY WAIT 4 YEARS???

Geeze, Is the current $68.30/barrel of oil not high enough!?

Jet