Northwest Pilots explain problems holding up combination talks

[Redmeat]

Sweet mercy! Pay attention!

The blending ratio will not complete the deal.

"Will NOT" <-- not an opinion

Under that methodology, the DAL pilots aren't impacted the way half of the NWA pilots are impacted.

That means it Will NOT happen.

There's room to move by both sides. There is also a "fair" number for each pilot on both lists. "Fair" in this context means everybody feels equally boned.

The combined carrier will result in beneficial math for both pilot groups because 1 + 1 = 2.5.

Occam, talk some sense to your boys.

PLEASE!!!

We need this!

 

[On Your Six]

I don't think so Occam. I think that's wishful thinking at this point. You got a good deal offered in good faith and the likelihood of getting the same deal or better in arbitration is minimal.

Your merger committee didn't come prepared to iron out a seniority list, it showed up to posture for advantage and has potentially squandered a rare opportunity. You need new blood in that committee and I think you know that.

There are only a handful of years when NWA retirements have an impact, thereafter its mostly DAL retirements.

Relative seniority for an airline receiving significantly greater contractual improvements than the company they are merging with and significantly greater access to premium paying wide bodied flying as a result of the merger is a good deal and one an arbitrator is unlikely to match.

On a percentage basis you are over twice as likely to be a DAL wide bodied captain than a NWA wide bodied captain. DAL has a significant advantage in wide bodied airframes and pay across the entire fleet.

Not many arbitrators have taken a seniorty bump 5-10 years out into consideration lately. Talk to our friends at AAA and they'll tell you how that worked out for them. Counting wide bodied air frames vs narrow bodied airframes and the contractual values brought to the merger have been given significantly greater weight.

Hopefully at this point they'll be no merger, if there is and we go down the traditional path a handful of pilots who have been in your committee for far too long will have squandered an unprecendented opportunity, for significant contractual improvements and upfront incentives, rolling the dice on a process that with all likelihhod will not yield a better outcome than what was offered.

This is one of the best posts I have read in a long time. I encourage everyone to read it. I have friends at DAL who echo these sentiments.

This was an unprecedented opportunity to create a leading, dynamic airline. Looks like the NWA pilot negotiators have gone for a grand-slam home run in this case instead of looking at the long-term mutual benefits this combination would bring to the entire group.

 

[GogglesPisano]

The combined carrier will result in beneficial math for both pilot groups because 1 + 1 = 2.5.

So, you're thinking there won't be parking airplanes/furloughing as a result of this merger? Not 1,2,3 years from now?

 

[www.]

Nice job summing up what seems to be the universal feeling at DL. Anything significantly less than what's on the table would almost certainly be shot down by DL guys in the Memrat anyway. Most feel we are receiving little in comparison to the NW guys as it is.

Will the pilots from both groups be able to vote OR are the MECs going to handle it on their own?

 

[DrewBlows]

Relative seniority for an airline receiving significantly greater contractual improvements than the company they are merging with and significantly greater access to premium paying wide bodied flying as a result of the merger is a good deal and one an arbitrator is unlikely to match.

So they should just be happy being Delta pilots?

On a percentage basis you are over twice as likely to be a DAL wide bodied captain than a NWA wide bodied captain. DAL has a significant advantage in wide bodied airframes and pay across the entire fleet.

You can't be a DAL wide body captain if there are no vacancies. There will be many wide body vacancies at NWA in the coming years, there will not be many wide body vacancies at DAL in the coming years.

Not many arbitrators have taken a seniorty bump 5-10 years out into consideration lately. Talk to our friends at AAA and they'll tell you how that worked out for them. Counting wide bodied air frames vs narrow bodied airframes and the contractual values brought to the merger have been given significantly greater weight.

In the only recent SLI case an arbitrator has seen (USAir/AWA), the arbitrator took the seniority bump USAir pilots were expecting into account by instituting a five year fence where AWA pilots couldn't bid for USAir wide bodies. Of course the flaw in this is the age 65 rule was instituted shortly after the ruling, effectively wiping out the fence.

The solution in my opinion is a blended seniority list with a 10 year period where vacancies on caused by attrition would be filled by pilots of the legacy companies seniority list. In other words, vacancies caused by an NWA retirement would be filled by a current NWA pilot and vacancies caused by a DAL retirement would be filled by a DAL pilot. Growth aircraft would be staffed by whomever could hold the seat and displaced pilots get the first shot back at their former seat.

Hopefully at this point they'll be no merger, if there is and we go down the traditional path a handful of pilots who have been in your committee for far too long will have squandered an unprecendented opportunity, for significant contractual improvements and upfront incentives, rolling the dice on a process that with all likelihhod will not yield a better outcome than what was offered.

I suspect NWA pilots are saying something similar.

 

[surfnfly]

Maybe if our wonderful union ALPA would use our dues money we pay them to come up with a real merger policy that is realistic, we would not have to fight against each other and save our time for more important things (golf,fishing,surfing,etc..)

 

[PCL_128]

Everybody seems to be getting worked up about things that you don't even know for sure are going on. Do you really believe the rumors and media reports? Nobody really knows if the NWA guys are trying to staple the bottom 1000 DAL guys. Nobody really knows if the NWA committee is trying to capture the top 400 slots. This is all speculation and media reports, and we all know how accurate the media reports on our profession (not). Until official word comes out, don't hang the NWA committee yet. They might be a lot more reasonable than the rumors suggest.

 

[Diesel-9]

800DOG, Read the ALPA National NWA/DAL Merger/Financial analysis. Then join the debate. It has these numbers and data in it.. "All the big growth is coming to Asia in the next 20 years. Pacific growth rates double there over any other region. DAL has 0.2% of their ops there. NWA has 10% of their ops there. And DAL $$$ #'s aren't strong. DAL has $4.0 Billion debt due now through 2011, and then another $4.0 Bil note due soon after 2011. NWA Short term debt $1.9. DAL has $1.0 Billion LESS cash on hand than NWA. DAL CASM is 10% higher than NWA. NWA Cash/Monthly Expense ratio over twice as good as DAL, 3.2 to 1.5 and NWA operating margin is almost 60% higher than DAL. NWA pretax margin is 139% higher than DAL. NWA had the highest operating margins in the industry in 2007. NWA gets 12% revenue from RJ's while DAL is 25%/expensive. DAL needs a merger/help before end of 2009 or gets tight on cash again. Isn't that getting close to your next contract? OOOPS! Wonder how that happened? Who really needs who? p.s. Delta is looking for someones cash, cash flow and access to the Pacific. Delta isn't buying NWA or anyone. IF this MERGER happens, it will be a STOCK SWAP. Heard the equity is 5-7% but the pilots are FAR apart on seniority integration. At least the DAL senior brothers got theirs and ran off wth the scope. This could/should be a very good deal for all. 1+1=3. Looks like Southern Hospitality is getting in the way.

 

[Occam's Razor]

I think that's wishful thinking at this point. You got a good deal offered in good faith and the likelihood of getting the same deal or better in arbitration is minimal.

As dense as we may appear in in the media, we aren't so dense that we don't recognize a "good" deal. If it was a good deal (as the contract appears to be), then I'm confident our team would accept it.

The fact that they haven't, in light of the apparent contractual enticements, indicates the SLI offer isn't as "sweet" as it's being portrayed. If there's one thing I can state with absolute certainty, it's that NWA pilots like big contract improvements. So, applying the concept of, ahem, Occam's Razor...the simplest answer is probably the correct one: The SLI offer isn't "good".

Your merger committee didn't come prepared to iron out a seniority list, it showed up to posture for advantage and has potentially squandered a rare opportunity. You need new blood in that committee and I think you know that.

[Caution! Quibble Ahead!] Welllllll, I'd prefer to see negotiators in there instead of arbitration experts...but despite my persistent demands to be named Emperor of All (with it's inherent right of summary execution)...my MEC has chosen this team. Our MEC has also reviewed the activities at the table, including the contractual changes, so it might not be just the guys on the team.

Our team showed up to get the best deal they could. I think your's did too.

I concur that this opportunity is rare. In fact, I believe the scope and uniqueness of this opportunity makes it a good deal for both pilot groups, even without the nice contract stuff.

There are only a handful of years when NWA retirements have an impact, thereafter its mostly DAL retirements.

From what I understand, neither side is disputing the math of the retirement projections. The issue is where to place pilots on the list so that all will have an relatively equal mathematical opportunity to advance.

Relative seniority for an airline receiving significantly greater contractual improvements than the company they are merging with and significantly greater access to premium paying wide bodied flying as a result of the merger is a good deal and one an arbitrator is unlikely to match.

Here's where our team probably has an advantage. We have 22 years of experience wrasslin' on merger issues in front of arbitrators. Which arbitrators?

All of them!

On a percentage basis you are over twice as likely to be a DAL wide bodied captain than a NWA wide bodied captain. DAL has a significant advantage in wide bodied airframes and pay across the entire fleet.

Your math is wrong. Not your fault, but it's wrong. You fly more than half your widebodies (767's) as a composite with narrowbodies. You staff differently, and augment differently. Your "captains-per-hull" ratio is lower than ours by about 20% in the widebody categories.

The fact that your pay is better than ours is due to factors that reflect the different priorities of the two pilot groups at the point where decisions had to be made. If we chose to deconstruct the contracts, I think you'd see a complimentary blend of goodies.

Not many arbitrators have taken a seniorty bump 5-10 years out into consideration lately. Talk to our friends at AAA and they'll tell you how that worked out for them. Counting wide bodied air frames vs narrow bodied airframes and the contractual values brought to the merger have been given significantly greater weight.

You're speculating. Since a list integration with these demographics has never been taken to an arbitrator, speculation on exactly HOW an arbitrator would weigh the factors is pure bar talk.

The biggest selling point to settling this like adults is because both sides would lose control of this issue as soon as it goes to arbitration! We can influence the result as long as we are in control. Sending it to an arbitrator is to give up ANY control over the outcome.

It also signals to the world that pilots are petulant morons. (Like THAT'S a surprise!)

Hopefully at this point they'll be no merger, if there is and we go down the traditional path a handful of pilots who have been in your committee for far too long will have squandered an unprecendented opportunity, for significant contractual improvements and upfront incentives, rolling the dice on a process that with all likelihhod will not yield a better outcome than what was offered.

I don't share your hope. I hope it happens. I think the opportunity is unprecedented. I also think there is a place on the combined list for each pilot that would result in everybody being a little p!ssed. Sadly, that's probably the "fairest" option.

I also think it's lame to think that guys as sharp as your leadership would open with a "final offer". They can move. We can move. The deal can get done.

Then we'll crush American, United, USAirways, and Continental like baby harp seals!

[Note: Reason #1 why I haven't been named Emperor of All] :nuts:

 

[Diesel-9]

Occam. Well said.

 

[propdog]

I second...well said!!

 

[Noserider76]

Here's where our team probably has an advantage. We have 22 years of experience wrasslin' on merger issues in front of arbitrators. Which arbitrators?

All of them!

Probably a moot point since Atlanta radio is reporting both companies are walking away from the deal but, does anyone know how arbitration would work in this case?

Would the arbitrator make his decision then the companies decide if the merger is worth it or would the merger occur first?

Would the pilot groups still get equity and contract improvements without a negotiated settlement?

 

[Occam's Razor]

Probably a moot point since Atlanta radio is reporting both companies are walking away from the deal but,

DEWEY WINS?

Would the arbitrator make his decision then the companies decide if the merger is worth it or would the merger occur first?

Hang in there, brother! It ain't over. The two sides will still have a chance to act like grown-ups and settle this.

Would the pilot groups still get equity and contract improvements without a negotiated settlement?

Interesting question. I have no clue. I can understand the benefits of throwing $$ at pilots to get along, even without a pilot-constructed deal. The biggest benefit is that the other employees will follow the pilot's lead. When they don't, bad things happen:

If you're the AFA or IAM at UAL...the "master plan" unravels. I you're AMFA at NWA...you lose.

On the other hand, why cough up incentives if the group you need to get-along is re-enacting the Battle of Hastings?

 

[Fly4hire]

I also think it's lame to think that guys as sharp as your leadership would open with a "final offer".

Concur. Like I said elsewhere for our fratricidal group to unanimously reject with the contractual goodies on the table, the SLI had to be really bad.

The first step to get this moving is for DALPA to get over the Maverick and Goose bravado. Not impressed, nor useful at the table. (The only people who like fighter pilots are little kids and other fighter pilots).

The second is to quit thinking of NWA as some Midwest "also ran". Don't bring anything to the table? Better take a closer look at the financials. Doesn't matter if the DC9 are old - got anything else in the 100-130 seat range availble now? (Plus MEH operation) You had them and gave them away. I'm sure CMR would be willing to help ya'll. 67 787's are going to completely blow the competitive RPM doors off anything else in the markets they serve. DAL needs those aircraft, and the markets they serve.

Third, get over the sophomoric (see #1) attitude that NW pilots think being DL pilots is some sort of compensation in itself. Not. Could care less. Much rather do a deal with CAL, and watching a DAL and UAL SLI would be priceless.

I think the deal is doable as well, but it's not NWALPA holding it up.

 

[Noserider76]

Hang in there, brother! It ain't over. The two sides will still have a chance to act like grown-ups and settle this.

Either way it works out, beverages on me if I run into you or any other NW guys on a trip (unless it's before 0900, then it'll have to be coffee I guess) Take care.