No furloughs at Delta!

[ACL65PILOT]

There will be furloughs in the fall. It just isn't going to be talked about with Summer peak travel just starting. They will grandstand and talk all around it, but it will be coming. Business travelers are not traveling.

The economy has not bottomed out. There are more bankruptcies and maybe bailouts coming. In this economy, even the health care industry is getting slammed. The more people that are out of work, the less people that are insured, and for those that are still working and have insurance, only life and deaths procedures are being performed. There will be some Hospital Systems that will bite the dusk, also.

Unemployment has not peaked. The worst is yet to come. Foreclosures are only at the first wave. The Government is still printing lots of money that is not backed, interest rates will rise, inflation will increase, the housing market is still declining, and the car manufacturers are giving away cars but there is still too much inventory.

Our industry is the first to suffer, and the last to recover. The only thing saving some of the carriers is that they can still cut capacity to keep load factors high. However, check the prices, they are giving seats away. Rising oil prices will erode any chance of profit they may have had.

On another energy front, the Middle East is brewing. Just one conflict there, supply will decrease, and will run oil prices through the roof. Iran will be the catylist, and Israel is going to be the target. Hopefully, Obama has made a favorable enough impression on Hugo Chavez that, should a middle east war break out, supply can be increased from South America. However, it will not be enough to keep oil prices from shooting through the roof.

Will there be furloughs this Fall? They are already announcing the precursors with all the cutbacks. You can't have the announced capacity cuts and not furlough. To not furlough would be irresponsible to shareholders and also have long term affects on the viability of the Company. Furloughs will happen at all levels in this industry. Only the strong will survive. The Merged Companies from Msp and Atl, have the most promise of survival, because there is alot of capacity that can be cut, yet still maintain a strong market presence by just routing passengers through the surviving hubs. CVG--GONE. That's really why Comair was moved to JFK and Mesa was sent to a future ghost town hub.

If you are furlough fodder, you better save your bucks. It will be real hard to find any kind of decent paying job at all. Be prepared for a long absence. Industry wise, it's going to be a terrible winter and one we will all remember. The Spring will be even worse.

Yes, my industry friends, there will be furloughs, just like there were pension cuts. There will be alot of Drama and communication about we are trying not to furlough, just like they fought for your pensions, but in the end, there will be furloughs. I doubt Scope will be narrowed or outsourcing will be recaptured; we may see less Scope and more outsourcing. The top half of one pilot group will give scope relief to protect their positions. They have done if before. Probably the safest place to be right now is a Regional, especially one that has good, long-term contracts.

IMHO your assessment is dead on. If I was in the bottom few hundred I would be doing as you suggest.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

You comment about OH was my assessment when they made that move months ago. It is the only way they can effectively get out of the Mesa contract early!

 

[lineflyer1]

Absolutely. The 200's are going bye bye. Not all of them, but quite a few. It would be great if DAL does not have to furlough the "real" airline pilots. After all, us regional pukes deserve it. Right?

Nobody deserves it. Just like the auto industry losing half of it's buyers and furloughing auto workers from every company, the airlines are experienceing the same thing, it's just taking a while to get as bad for the airlines.

Just like the auto workers not having any luck finding comparable work in the same field, h-ll any work at all, pilots furloughed won't be able to find any comparable work in the same field either. This recession is toasting us all.

The commercial real estate market is about to come unglued at the seams this year. Hell Donald Trump can't even borrow money.

 

[JustaNumber]

Speedtape,
That was the most clearly presented, logical assessment of how our industry fits into this economic mess that I've seen. I wish it weren't the case, but I believe you are spot on.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Yes, My fear is the Prime market is going to melt down. That will make this sub prime mess look like a walk in the park.
When people like you and I start to fall delinquent on our house payments etc and they start to foreclose on us, that is where this will get real bad.
I fear the worse is yet to come. What we are seeing right now is being termed a "Bear Market Rally."

 

[JoeMerchant]

I don't say this often, but Speedtape and ACL65 are spot on!

The light at the end of the tunnel is a train......

 

[lineflyer1]

Yes, My fear is the Prime market is going to melt down. That will make this sub prime mess look like a walk in the park.
When people like you and I start to fall delinquent on our house payments etc and they start to foreclose on us, that is where this will get real bad.
I fear the worse is yet to come. What we are seeing right now is being termed a "Bear Market Rally."

I am now making 60% less. My wife is a Delta F/A and we are holding our own. I have never been 30 days late on anything in my life, that means 40 years of paying on time.

My wife has always flown more than her line value and in the fall we are afraid that the line values will drop and there will be nothing to pick up as a result of the decrease. Couple that with the interest rate hikes they will put on our credit cards and it will be a very quick short trip to the BK court![

 

[Skippy]

my understanding is this is what happned at unitied with respect to it's furloughs. Sure we knew soemthing was coming in about late april or may , when they announced the parking of the 737's . SO i made decisions and plans that i was going to be furloughed by octoverish ( i made it to january)

But basically the company knew the magic number and our chiarmna says, either you tell them or I do. We the company told us the next day and it was "official" at least we had about 5 months for htebottom person to prepare.

They didnt want to tell us right before the summer season for obvious reasons? Who would want to make sure they were in proper health and get everythign medically done that they and they family needed. Who would use up their sick time. Who was beign furloughed for the second time. Who would deliberately sabatage the operation and not volunteer to pick up extra flying during the most profitable time of the year for the airline. yada yada yada--- we got sued and lost and two guys lost their jobs and 2 guys got suspended 60 days.


SKIPPY Just prep as if you were to be furloughed-- what can it hurt

I switched over from comcast to Uverse and got 300 for doing so-with no contract, realigned all my bills ( i locked in my gas price at .70 a therm for natural gas) and started selling stuff i didnt want, use, or need on ebay and craigslist. Plan your prescriptions out too to have a stockpile . Also figure out how much you will get from unemployment with regards to your individual situation and see how you live on that for a few months.

just some of the things that helped us.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I am now making 60% less. My wife is a Delta F/A and we are holding our own. I have never been 30 days late on anything in my life, that means 40 years of paying on time.

My wife has always flown more than her line value and in the fall we are afraid that the line values will drop and there will be nothing to pick up as a result of the decrease. Couple that with the interest rate hikes they will put on our credit cards and it will be a very quick short trip to the BK court![

Trust me. I know. Everyone is going to be effected by this. My wife has taken a 25% pay cut this year and her company is still bleeding cash. Even a down bid for someone like me is not what I am looking forward to. Even though it is only a 12K a year hit as an FO, it still is the car or house payment.
It just plain sucks.
I cannot imagine what a person at a regional would do being downgraded to FO after finally making CA pay.

 

[CFI2766]

Speed- Mind if I crash at your place when I get furloughed this fall?

Seriously, a well thought out post. Kudos.