NJA Downgrades

[Pervis]

I was in STL the other day and a NJ Capt was saying that exact number (275) for upcomming furloughs. I wasn't going to post on that alone, but now it seems backed up.

I heard Linus found a friend who also believes in the great pumpkin. That must make it true. The thread starter has at least found success in getting attention. I'll bet those on the bottom find comfort in posters like this.

 

[Jack Campbell]

Pervis, while I agree with most of what you said, I disagree with your assertion that "Papa" callsigns only mean shares were sold. Don't they use that callsign any time owners change on a tail? Such as, when an owner sells his share, or upgrades and no longer owns that tail, a new registration is generated and along with it, the "Papa" callsign?
As to the main subject of this thread, I would not be surprised with any news to come out of NJA until the economy is solidly in recovery. The only thing that would surprise me right now is a recall notice.

 

[gutshotdraw]

Nicely said Pervis and accurate from where I sit.

 

[Pervis]

Jack, you are correct. However, I have noticed a significant increase, along with positive news from company. During the period of greatest losses and buy-backs last year, we didn't hear near this many Papa call signs.

I too would be suprised if any recalls were announced in the near term. I believe the catalyst for recalls will exceed the current increase in OT, fatigue calls, after midnights, and ferry flights to get crews home in a feeble attempt to reduce said after midnights. When we approach sell off limits and costs, then we will recall. Again, that's just my opinion. Sales will need to increase substantially before that happens. It will happen. The only question is when?

 

[RJ Bum]

Papa call signs is not a very accurate indication since they can be a result of owners downgrading. But I'm not saying I dont believe you Pervis

 

[jtf]

The company is also trying to consolidate owners into airplanes that aren't fully owned and get them out of the airplanes that only have a couple or few owners left since they can't sell off the airframes that they want to get rid of until all the owners are off the certificates.

I don't see all those downgrades and furloughs happening without a double dip recession. While that may make sense from the number cruncher's point of view, the ill-will that would bring to the pilot group would more than negate the supposed "savings" with all the sell offs and broken airplanes and fatigue calls that would result from this. I think the group would accept it and keep working hard if they saw the actual double dip, but without it it will be fugly out there if this were to happen.

 

[ArtVandalay]

I love how someone makes a statement on here and then immediately a response from someone else saying, "source?" Like that person is going to actually say who it was that told him.

 

[jonjuan]

The company is also trying to consolidate owners into airplanes that aren't fully owned and get them out of the airplanes that only have a couple or few owners left since they can't sell off the airframes that they want to get rid of until all the owners are off the certificates.

Bingo. Exactly what's driving the papa, not new sales.

I don't see all those downgrades and furloughs happening without a double dip recession. While that may make sense from the number cruncher's point of view, the ill-will that would bring to the pilot group would more than negate the supposed "savings" with all the sell offs and broken airplanes and fatigue calls that would result from this. I think the group would accept it and keep working hard if they saw the actual double dip, but without it it will be fugly out there if this were to happen.

When the other fracs downgraded and laid off due to the economy, was there an increase in broken planes and f calls leading to increased sell offs? Remember, mgmt is there to cut costs in any way shape or form.

 

[gutshotdraw]

Bingo. Exactly what's driving the papa, not new sales.

Except, year-to-date shares sold exceed year-to-date share redemptions. Some of the pink registrations are consolidations of owners in order to dispose of excess airframes but sales are ticking up slightly.

 

[Pervis]

I love how someone makes a statement on here and then immediately a response from someone else saying, "source?" Like that person is going to actually say who it was that told him.

When someone quotes a source that may affect the lives of hundreds, I believe he is obligated to provide that source. If they aren't ready to provide proof, they should keep their mouth shut. There is enough turmoil ongoing, don't you think?

 

[DAS at 10/250]

When someone quotes a source that may affect the lives of hundreds, I believe he is obligated to provide that source. If they aren't ready to provide proof, they should keep their mouth shut. There is enough turmoil ongoing, don't you think?

Dude, this is FI.com. Not a reputable news outlet.

 

[Pervis]

Yea DAS, it's a shame internet bravado lets people forget common decency. Or does it let people really show their true colors? Too bad real names aren't required.

 

[gret]

Except, year-to-date shares sold exceed year-to-date share redemptions. Some of the pink registrations are consolidations of owners in order to dispose of excess airframes but sales are ticking up slightly.

Are you certain about this? The latest UBS report that I've seen has the redemptions slowing, but there are still more people leaving than coming.

I could have old info.

 

[jonjuan]

Yes DAS, it's a shame that some can come on here and provide false hope based on management proclamations.

 

[gutshotdraw]

Are you certain about this? The latest UBS report that I've seen has the redemptions slowing, but there are still more people leaving than coming.

I could have old info.

Positive.