How was the ATL job fair?

[wood pecker]

Any comments positive/negative on the ATL job fair on 4-16? Any specific comments or news given on the AirTran tour on Saturday morning.

Just wanting to know how bad I should feel for missing the event due to work. I was afraid to call in sick being that half my airline might be there trying to get a job w/ AirTran.

Thanks.

 

[pilotyip]

Sign of the 2007 hiring boom

The show was another confirming data point on the road to the 2007-hiring boom. 400 plus attended, a number of airlines were begging for pilots to apply for empty classes in the next two weeks. But they did not fill their classes at the show. Now the premier job places like FedEx, UPS, CAL, etc all had long lines. The smaller carriers Pinnicle, AE, Commute Air, Cogan had no lines. Plenty of jobs out there, I guess just not very good. One of the presenters said for a smaller company said if you meet the mins and did not die during the phone interview you were hired. Reminds we of 1995/96 all the majors have 10-15K resumes, but each airline had the same 10-15K resumes. Two year later the 10-15K all got jobs. Now to keep the hiring pool large enough to be selective, the airlines will redefine their competitive minimums. i.e. read lower their standards. Which will lead to more hiring peaking in 2007. So that was my take on the show, be ready for the 2007-hiring boom because it is on its way. BTW someone said TAB Express is no longer around; any confirmation?

 

[PCL_128]

I used to laugh at your prediction yip, but I'm beginning to think you're right. CAL is hiring, NW should be hiring by the end of '06, DAL should be hiring by beginning of '07 (maybe sooner), and UPS, FedEx, SWA, JBlue, Airtran are continuing to hire. With the huge number of retirements coming up in the next decade the airlines are going to have to hire big numbers even if there is zero growth.

The same pattern is repeating itself again just like it has done in every other decade. This idea that there has been some king of "paradigm shift" that has changed everything is ridiculous.

 

[Resume Writer]

I am going to agree and disagree with Yip's prediction and provide my insight into this industry after almost two decades of involvement.

Let me first state - I HOPE there is not a "hiring boom" in 2007. Over the past two decades, hiring at frantic rates has lead to furloughs. When airlines hire in large numbers, it seems they are experiencing overzealous growth planned by egomaniac management types.

While growth is good, it needs to be realistic. I truly hope this industry has learned lessons from the past and is conservative in their growth strategies.

While I agree with Yip that there will be a good deal of hiring, you do not need a crystal ball to predict what he is saying. Historically, the best years to be hired in aviation and avoid furloughs are years ending in 4-7.

In fact, I have seen this same trend in the general business world as a resume writer for 18 years. Our economy is constantly fluctuating between growth and stagnation. The middle of a decade seems to be the best for company expansion and success.

I will predict that our economy hits another recession at the end of this decade and beginning of the next. Can I get my Miss Cleo Psychic Hotline Employee card now?

Kathy

 

[pilotyip]

Kathy maybe boom is a bit of an exaggeration, but I bet we see hiring in 2007 that will be 3 maybe 4 times what it was in 2004. Will it be a good time to be hired into a new job. Only time will tell. As E Gann said we are slaves to the numbers.

 

[DLslug]

Hiring

Dear All:

I hope for all who are job hunting the best of luck. It is too bad the industry is in such poor shape.

The cycles you are describing in the past are historical and will be repeated, however, the financial health of most of the industry has never been worse.

As a whole, the industry will lose billions this year again and that is sad. It was sure a lot more fun when the hiring was healthy and so were the airlines.

My best advice...choose wisely. Take your time and do the math. Not all the airlines hiring today will survive this industry reset.

I'm still thankful and wouldn't change anything now, but I sure have some nervous days ahead.

All for now,

DLslug

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

I had a very positive experience at the Job Fair. I won one of the many door prizes.

Besides my prize, I was actually very impressed by the whole operation. I was very warmly received by the nice folks at AirTran, Continental, and JetBlue. Meanwhile, UPS and FedEx basically said if I didn't know some pilots there, not to waste my (meaning their) time. I'm expecting 2, possibly 3 interviews now, and came away feeling like I'd won the lottery, which I guess I kinda did.

I'd highly recommend attending these Job Fairs until you get hired somewhere. Even though my airline was hiring at the Fair, and everyone was talking about me at work today, I totally feel it was worth taking the time off.

Good Luck.

Any comments positive/negative on the ATL job fair on 4-16? Any specific comments or news given on the AirTran tour on Saturday morning.

Just wanting to know how bad I should feel for missing the event due to work. I was afraid to call in sick being that half my airline might be there trying to get a job w/ AirTran.

Thanks.

 

[bobbysamd]

Hiring dud

oom is a bit of an exaggeration . . .

Interesting, Yip, how you back down quickly off your boom prediction when confronted . . .

I bet we see hiring in 2007 that will be 3 maybe 4 times what it was in 2004. Will it be a good time to be hired into a new job. Only time will tell . . .

You're backing down further. Take that bet to Vegas, Yip.

As E Gann said we are slaves to the numbers.

There is always hiring, Yip. No one should know better than you, who hires pilots. But don't expect a boom, or hiring in the same proportions, as in 1987-'91 and 1997-2000. When you and Kit predict a hiring boom, people think of those years. In so doing, you mislead people and get their hopes up falsely. Hopefully, your predictions are disregarded.

Can I get my Miss Cleo Psychic Hotline Employee card now?

Get one for me, too.

 

[Smacktard]

Interesting, Yip, how you back down quickly off your boom prediction when confronted . . . You're backing down further. Take that bet to Vegas, Yip.There is always hiring, Yip. No one should know better than you, who hires pilots. But don't expect a boom, or hiring in the same proportions, as in 1987-'91 and 1997-2000. When you and Kit predict a hiring boom, people think of those years. In so doing, you mislead people and get their hopes up falsely. Hopefully, your predictions are disregarded.Get one for me, too.

Never fear, Bobby's back to calm you down. Oh no! Airlines are hiring and everyone said it would never be the same!

 

[FR8mastr]

Wholly crap!! there is going to be a pilot shortage! Can't wait to see the ads in the next issue of your favorite aviation periodical.

"Do you want to become a high paid airline pilot like you've always dreamed? Well you can in just 6 months, just make the check out to _______ aviation academy and in no time the huge pay checks will start rolling in." "we can do this here at the Academy because we are professionals, and because you wear epaulets while in training you will be professional too and have a leg up on all the furloughed 20,000 hour pilots."

 

[pilotyip]

It is coming

Define boom, I define it as 3-4 times increase in the number of pilots hired over about 3-4 year period. 4,000 in 2004, 12,000-16,000 in 2007. Those are doable numbers. These are not all new jobs, but new hires positions available to job seekers.

 

[Resume Writer]

Yip,

Those are some lofty numbers! Are you talking the industry as a whole? I would say those numbers are more realistic if you are talking about 2005-2007, not 2007 alone. If some majors do not become healthy again, then those numbers would more likely reflect the number of pilots on the street.

There is a natural upward attrition when the major airlines start hiring, i.e., flight instructors go to Part 135 ops, Part 135 pilots go to Regionals, and Regional pilots go to Majors. (of course this is not the only scenario, just giving an example) However, with a 3-6% growth plan at most majors, the numbers you predicted are not realistic. There has to be movement/growth somewhere for positions to open up.

Just my thoughts...

Kathy

 

[sleepy]

I am glad you all had a nice time, thank's for your $$$$.

Sincerely,

Kit Darby

 

[capt. megadeth]

I truly hope this industry has learned lessons from the past and is conservative in their growth strategies.

I doubt it.

 

[bobbysamd]

"Doable" numbers????

Define boom, I define it as 3-4 times increase in the number od pilots hired over about 3-4 year period. 4,000 in 2004, 12,000-16,000 in 2007. Those are doable numbers. These are not all new jobs, but new hires positions available to job seekers.

Well, Yip, if sixteen thousand are hired in 2007, can Kit's goal of forty-thousand total during the next nine years be far behind? He'll only have twenty-four thousand to go. Read that again: 24,000 new pilots hired by 2017.

Get away from those Kit Darby propaganda tracts, Yip, and read documented facts, such as the Washington Post article and the Rocky Mountain News articles to which I have provided links.

Is there such a thing as a Kit Darby deprogrammer?

 

[pilotyip]

The front lines man, the front lines

Bobby, you were not there on the front lines of the current airline hiring trends as seen in the show at ATL. Nor were any of the reporters, they are repeating out of date information to fill columns. The same as the reporting out of the Iraq, what you read is not what is happening from e-mails I read. I mean I was there in the same room as Kit, I heard him speak, I shook his hand, I believe. I mean how close does one have to get to action to see what is going on. BTW, did I define hiring boom good enough? 12,000-16,000 in 2007 is that a definition of a boom.

 

[pilotyip]

I think this is doable

Kathy, I really believe those numbers are doable. In 2007 there will probably be at least 8 majors hiring, JB, UPS, Fedex, SWA, CAL, NWA, AirTran, AWA, Alaska estimate each hires 300 in a year. Each major job creates 4 additional jobs. Pilots move form 135-prop on-demand, into jet cargo, into the regionals, and into the nationals. So 5 jobs times 8 majors times 300 major new hires should create 12,000 new hire jobs in 2007. I think I am estimating low, based upon the feeding frenzies I have seen in the past. This does not include the jobs created by DAL, AA, and possibly UAL pilots who are recalled from furlough and leave opening in jobs them vacate.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

You tell 'em Randy!

I think the ONLY thing that will affect the hiring boom patter in 2007-2008 is when the 60-yr. age limit is changed by Congress. When it changes, that will push the hiring boom requirement back by the number of years it takes for those pilots choosing to stay flying to leave their current employers.

So, for example, if it gives 5 more years for pilots to fly, and the vast majority of them stay, then the hiring boom could well take place in 2012-2013. Now, that occurs, the timing of that hiring boom will be after Peak Oil.

IF we are dilligently working to end our oil habit, the peak will probably occur without too much disruption. HOWEVER, if we continue on our present course, which is to drill some more low-producing wells, in the small oil finds that we are discovering now, and everybody sits at home watching the Simpsons after picking up the family in their GMC Giganticas (the latest in non-hybrid, huge SUV that GM is addicted to for the profit margin), then we could ALL be out of jobs.

Cliff
MMIO

 

[bobbysamd]

Face time with Kit

I was there in the same room as Kit, I heard him speak, I shook his hand, I believe. I mean how close does one have to get to action to see what is going on.

That must have been a thrill, Yip. I once talked to Kit on the phone after he bolted FAPA to start AIR, Inc.

Just because one gets face time with the Pilot Shortage Pied Piper does not mean he is dispensing credible information, or credibility, or truth, or truthfulness. "There is a pilot shortage." "Forty-thousand pilots will be needed during the next ten years." Ad infinitum. Ad nauseum. He has been whistling the same tune for eighteen years. Or, as Herman's Hermits sang in 1966, "Second verse, same as the first."

Once more, do yourself a favor and get away from the Kit Darby exhaust pipe.

[T]he reporters . . . are repeating out of date information to fill columns.

A most ironic comment, Yip. Eighteen years ago, many of the very same papers for whom these reporters work were printing stories about the pilot shortage and were using statistics and quotes by Kit in their entirety, lock, stock and barrel, unverified and unchallenged.

[D]id I define hiring boom good enough? 12,000-16,000 in 2007 is that a definition of a boom.

Yes, that would be a boom. But, don't hold your breath about hiring in those numbers, Yip. I'd love to bet against it in Vegas.

 

[Jmajoris]

Get away from those Kit Darby propaganda tracts, Yip, and read documented facts, such as the Washington Post article and the Rocky Mountain News articles to which I have provided links.

I have a lot of respect for your opinion, but a newspaper article?? That's stretching it.....