How was the ATL job fair?

[pilotyip]

It is coming

Define boom, I define it as 3-4 times increase in the number of pilots hired over about 3-4 year period. 4,000 in 2004, 12,000-16,000 in 2007. Those are doable numbers. These are not all new jobs, but new hires positions available to job seekers.

 

[Resume Writer]

Yip,

Those are some lofty numbers! Are you talking the industry as a whole? I would say those numbers are more realistic if you are talking about 2005-2007, not 2007 alone. If some majors do not become healthy again, then those numbers would more likely reflect the number of pilots on the street.

There is a natural upward attrition when the major airlines start hiring, i.e., flight instructors go to Part 135 ops, Part 135 pilots go to Regionals, and Regional pilots go to Majors. (of course this is not the only scenario, just giving an example) However, with a 3-6% growth plan at most majors, the numbers you predicted are not realistic. There has to be movement/growth somewhere for positions to open up.

Just my thoughts...

Kathy

 

[sleepy]

I am glad you all had a nice time, thank's for your $$$$.

Sincerely,

Kit Darby

 

[capt. megadeth]

I truly hope this industry has learned lessons from the past and is conservative in their growth strategies.

I doubt it.

 

[bobbysamd]

"Doable" numbers????

Define boom, I define it as 3-4 times increase in the number od pilots hired over about 3-4 year period. 4,000 in 2004, 12,000-16,000 in 2007. Those are doable numbers. These are not all new jobs, but new hires positions available to job seekers.

Well, Yip, if sixteen thousand are hired in 2007, can Kit's goal of forty-thousand total during the next nine years be far behind? He'll only have twenty-four thousand to go. Read that again: 24,000 new pilots hired by 2017.

Get away from those Kit Darby propaganda tracts, Yip, and read documented facts, such as the Washington Post article and the Rocky Mountain News articles to which I have provided links.

Is there such a thing as a Kit Darby deprogrammer?

 

[pilotyip]

The front lines man, the front lines

Bobby, you were not there on the front lines of the current airline hiring trends as seen in the show at ATL. Nor were any of the reporters, they are repeating out of date information to fill columns. The same as the reporting out of the Iraq, what you read is not what is happening from e-mails I read. I mean I was there in the same room as Kit, I heard him speak, I shook his hand, I believe. I mean how close does one have to get to action to see what is going on. BTW, did I define hiring boom good enough? 12,000-16,000 in 2007 is that a definition of a boom.

 

[pilotyip]

I think this is doable

Kathy, I really believe those numbers are doable. In 2007 there will probably be at least 8 majors hiring, JB, UPS, Fedex, SWA, CAL, NWA, AirTran, AWA, Alaska estimate each hires 300 in a year. Each major job creates 4 additional jobs. Pilots move form 135-prop on-demand, into jet cargo, into the regionals, and into the nationals. So 5 jobs times 8 majors times 300 major new hires should create 12,000 new hire jobs in 2007. I think I am estimating low, based upon the feeding frenzies I have seen in the past. This does not include the jobs created by DAL, AA, and possibly UAL pilots who are recalled from furlough and leave opening in jobs them vacate.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

You tell 'em Randy!

I think the ONLY thing that will affect the hiring boom patter in 2007-2008 is when the 60-yr. age limit is changed by Congress. When it changes, that will push the hiring boom requirement back by the number of years it takes for those pilots choosing to stay flying to leave their current employers.

So, for example, if it gives 5 more years for pilots to fly, and the vast majority of them stay, then the hiring boom could well take place in 2012-2013. Now, that occurs, the timing of that hiring boom will be after Peak Oil.

IF we are dilligently working to end our oil habit, the peak will probably occur without too much disruption. HOWEVER, if we continue on our present course, which is to drill some more low-producing wells, in the small oil finds that we are discovering now, and everybody sits at home watching the Simpsons after picking up the family in their GMC Giganticas (the latest in non-hybrid, huge SUV that GM is addicted to for the profit margin), then we could ALL be out of jobs.

Cliff
MMIO

 

[bobbysamd]

Face time with Kit

I was there in the same room as Kit, I heard him speak, I shook his hand, I believe. I mean how close does one have to get to action to see what is going on.

That must have been a thrill, Yip. I once talked to Kit on the phone after he bolted FAPA to start AIR, Inc.

Just because one gets face time with the Pilot Shortage Pied Piper does not mean he is dispensing credible information, or credibility, or truth, or truthfulness. "There is a pilot shortage." "Forty-thousand pilots will be needed during the next ten years." Ad infinitum. Ad nauseum. He has been whistling the same tune for eighteen years. Or, as Herman's Hermits sang in 1966, "Second verse, same as the first."

Once more, do yourself a favor and get away from the Kit Darby exhaust pipe.

[T]he reporters . . . are repeating out of date information to fill columns.

A most ironic comment, Yip. Eighteen years ago, many of the very same papers for whom these reporters work were printing stories about the pilot shortage and were using statistics and quotes by Kit in their entirety, lock, stock and barrel, unverified and unchallenged.

[D]id I define hiring boom good enough? 12,000-16,000 in 2007 is that a definition of a boom.

Yes, that would be a boom. But, don't hold your breath about hiring in those numbers, Yip. I'd love to bet against it in Vegas.

 

[Jmajoris]

Get away from those Kit Darby propaganda tracts, Yip, and read documented facts, such as the Washington Post article and the Rocky Mountain News articles to which I have provided links.

I have a lot of respect for your opinion, but a newspaper article?? That's stretching it.....