Delta hiring

[TNPILOT]

I cannot answer that. That answer is up to the Delta in-house legal team alone. They have not rendered a ruling on that for obvious reasons. 1) They do not have to as there is no hiring yet, and 2) Doing so prior to resuming hiring is not legally prudent.

Fair enough. Is there an MEC position on it? Perhaps "position" is too strong of a word but for lack of a better term...

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I have head of no such position.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

My personal opinion is that at best it would be a option to re-interview, but given the competitiveness of these slots, that may be both good and bad for you guys. I know last time we had over 12,000 applicants and only about 2000 that they deemed competitive.

In the end you will now know until you get a letter stating that you are offered the option to reinterview, or no letter shows up. It will not be announced to the world.

 

[clippyrip]

Fair enough. Is there an MEC position on it? Perhaps "position" is too strong of a word but for lack of a better term...

This is just my opinion and may spark some anger but as a former NWA guy here at Delta, my guess is that our poolies will receive no special treatment. I am going off of how Delta and the MEC has handled most things former NWA. Lee Moak in my estimation does not care very much about FNWA issues and will not lift a finger for our poolies.

I'm sure this post will get a rebuttal but I will come back here when hiring starts and I am proven correct and say "I told you so".

 

[twobits]

AC,

Is this info from the same person who told you that JAL was a done deal? Hiring at Delta completely depends on retirements, which are really hard to forecast. They need retirements to 'right size' the airline in terms of optimal hub/fleet route composition. 747-400 is an old airplane, and will be replaced by 777's, and possibly the 747-8i. DC-9 has proven itself over the years, but will be history by the end of 2011 just like the 727, 737-200/300G and MD-11 were not so long ago. CVG is a goner. The wholly owned regionals might be brought in house to fly big RJ's, smaller RJ's will be shed to non-wholly owned carriers. All in all, the target number of mainline aircraft pilots is 10,200 by the middle of 2012. That includes all of the above. Do the math.


Interviews will start in 2012 at the earliest!

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Two;
Using your math they would need 2000 retirements in two years to starve off furloughs Using your logic they would not be hiring in 2012.

To answer a question, no not the same person in the least. Single point intelligence is never good. I also think there is more to the JAL story that will play out over the next few years, so do not count em out yet. They are fighting for survival and once they know they will make it, their options and decisions are more than likely going to change.
The person who told me JAL was a done deal, is the same person that less than a week later got really quiet as the deal was falling apart. Go look for those posts too, while you are at it.

As for the 9. They will stay until oil goes above 12-130. When that happens they will be parked. It is a throw away jets.

As for the large RJ's. I hope you are correct that they are brought to our list, but IMO they WO will get them and no more flying will be awarded to third party operators unless they are willing to drop the cost plus for a more rational contract.

If they replace the 744, great, it will be on a one for one or better since we are not getting the 380 and the 777-300 actually carries less. Many markets will need the seats.
The 727,L15, and 11 were retired because they were three engine jets, and cost way to much. The 732 was a cost issue too. The DC-9 will be some day too. In that regard the 90 at 8 mil a copy will be a great replacement in the near term. Looking ahead you will see a bridge a/c order in about two to three years to make this airline competitive to the E version of a narrow body jet.

FWIW, what I have stated WRT hiring, is what the men and women of action are doing and stating. If they can delay to 2011 they will for many reasons. They cannot fly the 2011 sked with the bodies they have, and they know there are going to many guys that are going to hand it up prior to 65. They need to hire for insurance.

In the earnings call today, there was a note on the fleet. In past calls they have stated that they are redoing the 9's and the 744's. You do not stick millions in to jet you will park in two years.

I understand the negativity, but you also need to realize the possibilities that the airline is looking at.

 

[twobits]

AC,

No negativity here, just reality! I said hiring in 2012 at the earliest, not that they would! I also am assuming not everyone goes to 65, and that the company continues to encourage early retirements. A much more realistic hiring date is sometime in 2013.

JAL as a skyteam partner is dead.

What do you think is more efficient, a 737-200 or a DC-9? I don't know the answer, but they probably are pretty close in cost accounting terms.

Don't they always replace interiors and repaint planes before they park them..... 727's, MD-11's, etc... are good examples. You can't have a product that is not uniform! How many newly painted 767's have been sitting in the desert lately? I'm sure they re-value the asset as they please, and then use depreciation to their advantage.

Do they really know the 2011 system schedule yet? if they do, are they going to tell you that CVG is shut, or just say that staffing will be tight as they pull the wool over your eyes.

We are pilots, they will tell us anything!!! Even pilot managers do this, and in general, they do not even have the full story!

 

[FlyinPiker]

AC,
If they do, are they going to tell you that CVG is shut, or just say that staffing will be tight as they pull the wool over your eyes.

I agree with your assessment of no off the street hiring anytime soon twobits. Maybe some recalls and flows ( would be easier to correct for variables just using them...fill in the blanks at Compass and XJ, less messy if things go south). It seems like to even hire off the street they have to do pretty aggressive hiring...I don't see that happening anytime soon.

As far as shutting down CVG effecting staffing, I'd doubt those crews actually spend much time actually doing CVG flying these days. Not many flights left. It will just be moving the crews to where they are already flying.

Re-reading your post I think your point was more that no one has the inside scoop, they might just have better rumors than others.

I always look forward to ACL's posts and am grateful for them...but as with everything I take them with a grain of salt ( I don't even know what that saying means, but it sounds good!!!).

 

[ACL65PILOT]

AC,

No negativity here, just reality! I said hiring in 2012 at the earliest, not that they would! I also am assuming not everyone goes to 65, and that the company continues to encourage early retirements. A much more realistic hiring date is sometime in 2013.

Is that your opinion? I have only state mine where I have noted.

JAL as a skyteam partner is dead.

For now yes, but the future will have some interesting twists.

What do you think is more efficient, a 737-200 or a DC-9? I don't know the answer, but they probably are pretty close in cost accounting terms.

You are comparing two different times in the airlines history. I am sure that if we were merged prior to the 732 being put down the decisions rendered would be different. Given the fact of how our route structure works and the efficiency of it, the 9 no matter how old or inefficient plays a significant role. If/when it can be economically replaced it will be, but until then it will be used.

One thing you need to understand is the type of airline that the execs that are in power today envision. If they could go get a cheap 100 seat jet that did not have the acquisition costs of the current options they would. Problem is that as RA has stated a paid for DC-9 is a better option that a quasi-efficient 195 etc. The acquisition costs are great. Therefore, the nine will stay until they can find a way to take it out of the fleet and not leave a gaping hole. That could be with a next gen narrow body, scope concessions, or a viable jet like the MD-90. They have options.
I for one am glad that they are looking at a mid term replacement for the narrow body fleet. We need to do that or we will be placing ourselves nicely behind the eight ball.

Don't they always replace interiors and repaint planes before they park them..... 727's, MD-11's, etc... are good examples. You can't have a product that is not uniform! How many newly painted 767's have been sitting in the desert lately? I'm sure they re-value the asset as they please, and then use depreciation to their advantage.

Yes, and no. Again look for the real reason why. Parked, not cut up. Those jets need a Heavy Check, and are getting them in short order. They are cycling them out of MZJ and VCV on an as needed basis.
Spending that kind of money on a 744 makes sense if it will be here for the next five years. That matches what they are saying.
FWIW, at no time in the history of Delta have there been as many aircraft MOD lines going as we do now.

Do they really know the 2011 system schedule yet? if they do, are they going to tell you that CVG is shut, or just say that staffing will be tight as they pull the wool over your eyes.

I beleive (Insert my opinion after drawing my own conclusions on what I have been told) is that they know what they will be doing with the entire CVG base, not just the ER. Of course they will not drop the bomb on them until it is time. They want it to work, but the is a plan and they will execute it. It is just like DFW. They knew what they were going to do if numbers did not hit X. I knew with fairly good certainty DFW was closing at least six months prior to the Sept 2004 press conference.

Point is that, of course they are not going to announce their two year plan to the world. That give the competition a chance to react. Duh.

To directly answer your question. Exact, no, a block hr range, yes. A range that they will set staffing on with a 5 percent flex either way? yes. Will it get narrowed to a two percent flex later this winter? maybe. The design block hr plan for flex in both directions. It is called prudence. All the previous data stated that block hrs for summer 2011 would be 2-3% (at a min) higher than this year. What that equates to is a pilot shortfall at a min of the mirror percentage. We will be negatively staffed for this summer and any added block hrs will mean they need to hire. Simply put. We are looking at block hrs not ASM's though they will quote those too.
Can it change? Yes, has it in the past? yes, but these are the best estimates they are using going forward. They use these to plan hiring which in our case takes at least one entitlement to create the positions for the new pilots, and six months of getting the applications screened, interviews, run through indoc, aircraft training, IOE and then on to the line. We had four month backups on IOE in late 2007 and 2008. It is better to trickle that in that force it in to a static pipeline.

[quote
We are pilots, they will tell us anything!!! Even pilot managers do this, and in general, they do not even have the full story![/QUOTE]

The fourth floor is good for a lot of things, but when looking two plus years out there are better areas to focus on. Watch their feet. We need to make the next few years work 100% in our favor as the rest of the industry tries to consolidate. To do that, it will not be business as usual.

If they opt for the way you think things will go, they will have passed on an amazing opportunity that they see. Of course the choice is their to make.

 

[titans10]

I heard 22 planes coming out of desert.