Anderson to align capacity with demand

[Cobra17]

15% schedule reduction? wtf? You're spending less time in Africa is putting a damper on my offshore drilling expeditions with your wife. Guess I might as well buy a moped. <sigh>

 

[General Lee]

15% schedule reduction? wtf? You're spending less time in Africa is putting a damper on my offshore drilling expeditions with your wife. Guess I might as well buy a moped. <sigh>

Yet ANOTHER classic. Someone PLEASE start a Cobra17 Library of his fantastic insight prose. This guy is GONNA be somebody, someday.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[767/757]

And, a pre-SOC AE is NOT on the table. The Dalpa reps in the ATL lounge said they would never agree to that, since it is a concession. Do you think our LEC and MEC members from the South want to be bumped down any sooner than they have to? Sorry, but we out number you still. Nobody on our side of the fence wants to be bumped earlier.

Bye Bye--General Lee

I am going to have to disagree with you on this one.......it is NOT a concession but a forecasting tool. How would this be a concession when there will be a system wide bid with SOC anyway?

 

[General Lee]

I am going to have to disagree with you on this one.......it is NOT a concession but a forecasting tool. How would this be a concession when there will be a system wide bid with SOC anyway?

Anything done PRE-SOC with the willingness of Dalpa would be a concession (joint AE with 742s involved--which will go away pre-soc). IF it saves the company money, (and the company wants it), it would be a concession. Anything that affects one side (parking of the 742s) pre-SOC---has to affect ONLY that side. (due to SLI binding arbitration) Do you think the company would have a large AE pre-SOC and leave the 742 stuff out? Highly doubtful. After SOC, there could be a large bid, no doubt. But, the company will dump the 742s prior to SOC (to save from getting FAA approval on training programs, checklists, etc for that 742), and that portion cannot be used on a joint AE bid. That is my point. Not one guy can be dumped from the 742 prior to SOC and bid any Delta-S equipment due to that displacement. Those 742 guys will have to bid down (or up to 744), resulting in bumps all the way down the line, and then after SOC try to bid over to Delta S if they want. But, training will have to result, and it will be costly. No shortcuts. If they do it prior, they would be breaking the binding arbitration results.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

A quick LOA will take care of that However, I want to see how much displacing there will be on the Southside. You can bet your ass LM will push for a LOA if the Southies are going to get hammered and vice versa if just the North. We will know in about 6-8 weeks.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

The South is going to get hammered in 6-8 weeks or six months. As I stated before when the surplus the North seats in the northern bases, and add them to ATL they will not need to follow the seat. They will bid what they want.
There are no real seat protections with the movement that will be going on in the next two years.
Saving your and my six for six months is hardly worth the cost for DALPA or the company.
****Think right now there would be more surplussing going on on the south than the north, so you may some protections in that.

 

[3ds]

easy

I'll bet it wouldn't...I'd bet you hold NO union position or ACTIVELY, regularly serve...
I also bet if anyone posts anything remotely related to your airline at 4am you'll answer right then

Dude you're barking up the wrong tree. ACL provides some pretty reliable info and reasonable posts.

 

[Schwanker]

Anything done PRE-SOC with the willingness of Dalpa would be a concession (joint AE with 742s involved--which will go away pre-soc). IF it saves the company money, (and the company wants it), it would be a concession. Anything that affects one side (parking of the 742s) pre-SOC---has to affect ONLY that side. (due to SLI binding arbitration)

Bye Bye--General Lee

GL-
I personally don't care one way or another, but my understanding is the arbitration addressed furloughs, not displacements. Again, I'm not interested in defending the NERD position on this issue as the joint displacements will happen post SOC either way. First joint AE should be fun as NERDs tend to bid big equip if it's available.

Schwanker

 

[General Lee]

GL-
I personally don't care one way or another, but my understanding is the arbitration addressed furloughs, not displacements. Again, I'm not interested in defending the NERD position on this issue as the joint displacements will happen post SOC either way. First joint AE should be fun as NERDs tend to bid big equip if it's available.

Schwanker

Great, if there are AEs that means only the positions that are available. If there are displacements, then that is another story. The SLI award stated the parking of any planes will AFFECT that side, and I think that means furloughs or displacements. Regardless, if you are senior, you will do alright.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ACL65PILOT]

It would be a little of both. AE positions and surplus positions. The trick is to make sure that the surplus positions are not greater than the AE. If that is the case we will have a problem Houston!

 

[crj567]

It would be a little of both. AE positions and surplus positions. The trick is to make sure that the surplus positions are not greater than the AE. If that is the case we will have a problem Houston!

You already have a problem-Houston.. It is called NWA lackeys. They are stacked on your board, they are running all the upper-level positions nowadays.. The problem is: with a board stacked that deep with these clowns, it will be damn tough to get a change in leadership whenever people figure out how deeply in trouble you are!

Every company has issues these days, but at least most airlines have not just been 'jacked by the kind of scumbags who ran NWA!

 

[BID]

this stuff sounds very confusing.

how many pilots will you guys be overstaffed? (if any?)

 

[poppi]

You already have a problem-Houston.. It is called NWA lackeys. They are stacked on your board, they are running all the upper-level positions nowadays.. The problem is: with a board stacked that deep with these clowns, it will be damn tough to get a change in leadership whenever people figure out how deeply in trouble you are!

Every company has issues these days, but at least most airlines have not just been 'jacked by the kind of scumbags who ran NWA!

Get a life you reject and worry about where you work and not where you got turned down.

 

[FDJ2]

I am going to have to disagree with you on this one.......it is NOT a concession but a forecasting tool. How would this be a concession when there will be a system wide bid with SOC anyway?

There is not going to be a system wide rebid after SOC. Pre SOC's displacements will be handled in accordance with the PWA. If there are displacements pre SOC you displace to your respective pre merger fleets, if there are displacements post SOC you can displace to whichever category your seniority can hold with the exception of the growing 777 fleet for the FNWA pilots and 747 fleet for the FDAL pilots.

 

[FDJ2]

GL-
First joint AE should be fun as NERDs tend to bid big equip if it's available.
Schwanker

So do RDs, proportionally there are more RD's on the top of the list than NERDs.

 

[~~~^~~~]

So do RDs, proportionally there are more RD's on the top of the list than NERDs.

But not in the same proportion of big equipment brought to the merger.

The pull and plug method of crediting future attrition on day one gives the NWA guys seniority above the equipment (and presumably bases) that they are currently working in.

Sure there might be more RD's on the top, but there were more to begin with. No one I've heard (or read) is worried about RD's bidding NWA equipment.

The real shame is that the displacements on the South side are already forcing South pilots out of the 767 as the North's aircraft are redeployed on Southern routes where more demand for their underutilized capacity exists. Back a couple of years ago when I observed NWA's load factor was shrinking on reduced capacity I posted that management would surely want to shift NWA's underutilized equipment to the south where both demand wa growing on increased capacity.

Although NWA had cash, the trend vector was negative. Delta had a positive trend vector, but not much cash. The merger made sense from a management standpoint and was good for NWA employees. If there is any silver lining for Delta employees I have not seen it yet. Maybe it will be evident in 5 years.

 

[FDJ2]

The real shame is that the displacements on the South side are already forcing South pilots out of the 767 as the North's aircraft are redeployed on Southern routes where more demand for their underutilized capacity exists.

And next month I'll be flying a 767ER to NRTand GUM and do a CDG through MSP. It swings both ways. Displacements are being caused by a decrease in capacity system wide, not the fact that 330s are in ATL.

In a stove pipe new hires would never hold the 767ER, but due to the rapid expansion of international capacity and the dynamics of AEs there were wide bodied opportunities that otherwise wouldn't have existed but for the rapid expansion. The opposite is true during times of contraction. Post 9-11, with the decrease in capacity the category lists started to look much more like a stove pipe than during the preceding year when the company was rapidly expanding.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

There is not going to be a system wide rebid after SOC. Pre SOC's displacements will be handled in accordance with the PWA. If there are displacements pre SOC you displace to your respective pre merger fleets, if there are displacements post SOC you can displace to whichever category your seniority can hold with the exception of the growing 777 fleet for the FNWA pilots and 747 fleet for the FDAL pilots.

Key word system wide rebid.

There will be AE's/Surplus bids. About four to eight of them. You are correct in saying that not every seat will be up for bid.

I am just pointing out that what you are saying is a total rebid, not a shifting of many of the seats.

 

[~~~^~~~]

In a stove pipe new hires would never hold the 767ER, but due to the rapid expansion of international capacity and the dynamics of AEs there were wide bodied opportunities that otherwise wouldn't have existed but for the rapid expansion. The opposite is true during times of contraction. Post 9-11, with the decrease in capacity the category lists started to look much more like a stove pipe than during the preceding year when the company was rapidly expanding.

That's like saying had it not been for the large number of early outs at Delta you would not hold the seat that you hold.

It is what it is regardless of how it came to be.

 

[Fly4hire]

The SLI award stated the parking of any planes will AFFECT that side, and I think that means furloughs or displacements. Regardless, if you are senior, you will do alright.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Prior to SOC only. Those displacements off the 747-200 pre-SOC have no freeze, nor do those that get caught up in the waterfall displacements.

In short, it's a DAL-N problem only until SOC, and then it's everyone's problem. Again the logic for a pre-SOC position award, especially if there is an AE, will cause less impact than a far larger number of relatively senior unfrozen DAL-N displacee's. Never mind dispalcements, we will own a lot of AE and VD activity. I'm still betting on an early position bid....

 

[FDJ2]

That's like saying had it not been for the large number of early outs at Delta you would not hold the seat that you hold.

It is what it is regardless of how it came to be.

You're right that it is what it is and just like during the contraction post 9-11 the category lists will start to resemble a stove pipe.

As for the seat I hold now, I'd have held it with or with out the early outs that ended nearly 4 years ago. Of the 3000 retirements between 2001-2005 all but about 300 were either on LTD, not in the top of the list or would have retired at at age 60 prior to 12-2007.

 

[FDJ2]

Prior to SOC only. Those displacements off the 747-200 pre-SOC have no freeze, nor do those that get caught up in the waterfall displacements.

In short, it's a DAL-N problem only until SOC, and then it's everyone's problem. Again the logic for a pre-SOC position award, especially if there is an AE, will cause less impact than a far larger number of relatively senior unfrozen DAL-N displacee's. Never mind dispalcements, we will own a lot of AE and VD activity. I'm still betting on an early position bid....

The big difference is that a DALN displacement pre SOC will not displace any DALS pilot from his seat. DALN pilots displaced due to the parking of your aging 747-200 fleet will have to wait until there are openings to bid DALS equipment. Since there are proportionally more senior DALS pilots than DALN pilots and that disparity will grow larger with the PIRP and over time, I think it's a little premature to say that DALN will "own" the AE's.

 

[~~~^~~~]

FDJ2 - Sir, you must really be senior because that is the only part of the list that remotely resembles what you are typing. For the rest of us, yeah NWA owns our jobs.

You would agree that the award in no way resembles status quo and was not even designed to. It was designed to give NWA pilots a significant bump for their anticipated future attrition, NOW. They will use this super seniority and the bottom two thirds of the Delta list will pay a tremendously high price in the loss of status quo. There will be plenty enough aircraft movement to enable this bidding.

Do you disagree?

You are exactly right about the stove pipe. The problem is that many of us never applied to fly DC9's out of Detroit and would not have left our previous jobs to be a part of it. In my case, my spot is surrounded by NWA furlough bypass pilots. I'll be forced to perform flying that they figured sucked so bad they did not want the job.

As for protecting Delta pilots for four to six months, only a few senior Delta guys care. The rest of us would like to get on with the business of moving, figuring out a commute, or finding another job. It is what it is and we are not getting any younger.

 

[nwaredtail]

FDJ2 - Sir, you must really be senior because that is the only part of the list that remotely resembles what you are typing. For the rest of us, yeah NWA pretty much owns our jobs.

You would agree that the award in no way resembles status quo and was not even designed to. It was designed to give NWA pilots a significant bump for their anticipated future attrition, NOW. They will use this super seniority and the bottom part of the Delta list will pay a tremendously high price through the loss of their status quo.

Do you disagree?

You are exactly right about the stove pipe. The problem is that many of us never applied to fly DC9's out of Detroit and would not have left our previous jobs to be a part of it. In my case, my spot is surrounded by NWA furlough bypass pilots. I'll be forced to perform flying that they figured sucked so bad they did not want the job.

You are correct about the junior positions at DAL gonna take it in the shorts for a while. I am a bit surprised at this, but about 80% of the junior guys I fly with commute and EVERYONE of them stated that they will bid over to bigger equipment at DAL-S as soon as they can. I figured they would want to be at a higher % on a bidlist but I guess they want the $ and easy trips.

 

[NuGuy]

You are correct about the junior positions at DAL gonna take it in the shorts for a while. I am a bit surprised at this, but about 80% of the junior guys I fly with commute and EVERYONE of them stated that they will bid over to bigger equipment at DAL-S as soon as they can. I figured they would want to be at a higher % on a bidlist but I guess they want the $ and easy trips.

Heyas RT,

I mostly agree. There will be enough "churn" in all kinds of positions post-SOC for DAL-N guys to bubble up to all kinds of better paying positions.

Another blow will be to the junior DAL-S haven of NYC, where junior DAL-S guys could bid up if they were willing to put up with issues of NYC. BUT, everyone on the DAL-S side assumed there was going to be this mass stampede to ATL. They failed to realize there is a LARGE group of fNWA guys from the old NYC and BOS bases that commute to DTW, and those guys are pretty senior. They'll flock to NYC in droves, enjoying ER flying, an easier (or nonexistant) commute, and be at the top of the list due to relative seniority differences.

Sigh, the DAL MEC sold their side that the SLI was an "equitable deal" because they thought a few years of stagnation would lock out NWA guys from DAL metal/bases. After a few years, the NWA retirements would kick in, and it wouldn't matter.

They weren't planning on 800+ displacements on the south side. When those positions start to get refilled, a lot will go to redtails.

For the south guys, don't hold it against the fNWA guys for bidding those positions. We took it in the shorts on future attrition...bidding bigger equipment NOW is the only way to try to break even.

Nu

 

[Fly4hire]

Nu, FDJ2,

There are a couple of ways this can play out. Let's not forget that DAL is controlling DAL-N staffing now. They want minimal movement until post-SOC and avoid multiple training cycles per pilot when they can do one. They also need to get pilots into equipment and position ASAP after SOC to realize merger synergies.

The most desirable option would be to get enough PRIPS where there is no need to mess with the formula until after SOC. Barring that, If they were to determine (they know already) the base and equipment shuffles are going to be, they could open an AE for those positions now, and cross bid for post SOC training. No DAL-S pilots get bumped as a result of the -200 we just move the process up for openings that DAL-N pilots could bid post SOC. It will certainly mitigate inevitable DAL-S surpluses as a result of the Atlantic draw down as well. As ~~~^~~~ said, let's just get it over with.

If DALPA does not want to play ball, that leaves the Co. with the option of actually displacing those remaining -200 pilots and all the events it will generate. But since they are essentially playing against themselves, why bother? They could simply over staff a couple of categories with pilots on paper, awaiting training, and then let them wait until the first position bid after SOC and then train them. It would be money well spent over flooding the both school houses with unnecessary training cycles.

What I do not envision is two separate large displacement bids, to churn the lists of both groups, only to do it again, just to postpone the inevitable because some think the "stars upon thars" of the 767 are shinier than the ones on the 747-200.

Do any of you guys really think the timing of the 767 reductions are unrelated to the freighter closing? Something tells me that when you guys might be looking at considerably more displacements than DAL-N an early position bid tied with base realignments might start looking a little more attractive.......

 

[dtfl]

Heyas RT,

They failed to realize there is a LARGE group of fNWA guys from the old NYC and BOS bases that commute to DTW, and those guys are pretty senior. They'll flock to NYC in droves, enjoying ER flying, an easier (or nonexistant) commute, and be at the top of the list due to relative seniority differences.



Nu

NYC is all theirs!!

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Heyas RT,



Sigh, the DAL MEC sold their side that the SLI was an "equitable deal" because they thought a few years of stagnation would lock out NWA guys from DAL metal/bases. After a few years, the NWA retirements would kick in, and it wouldn't matter.

They weren't planning on 800+ displacements on the south side. When those positions start to get refilled, a lot will go to redtails.

For the south guys, don't hold it against the fNWA guys for bidding those positions. We took it in the shorts on future attrition...bidding bigger equipment NOW is the only way to try to break even.

Nu

How did you take it in the shorts with future attrition?? A measly few 787 deliveries was supposed to fix that. You get all of the growth DAL had on deck.....Cry me a river.

 

[Superpilot92]

How did you take it in the shorts with future attrition?? A measly few 787 deliveries was supposed to fix that. You get all of the growth DAL had on deck.....Cry me a river.

and the attrition has nothing to do with the 787 attrition is coming regardless, growth is subject to change as we are all seeing right now.

 

[licorice]

Heyas RT,



.

Sigh, the DAL MEC sold their side that the SLI was an "equitable deal" because they thought a few years of stagnation would lock out NWA guys from DAL metal/bases. After a few years, the NWA retirements would kick in, and it wouldn't matter.

Sigh? What is this "sigh" B.S. nuguy? Is that what the DAL MEC sold us on?.....You read their minds? I suppose in spite of their best efforts to keep NWA pilots down it all backfired in their face, right? Undoubtedly DOH (but, somehow, without the ten year fences) would have been a much more fair solution.....here's something for you to chew on...savor the taste and digest it well my obnoxious friend...my DOH equivalent at NWA is 2950 numbers junior to me!.....but....sigh.....that's OK because the NWA guy next to me on the list was hired 61/2 years before me, and is 4 years older... don't get me wrong though, I really like NWA guys like you.....(since Dec. 9, 2008!!!:laugh....Looking forward to all those NWA retirements!!!!cheers!:beer:

They weren't planning on 800+ displacements on the south side. When those positions start to get refilled, a lot will go to redtails.

Please have a little pride in your original airline...here's a napkin to wipe off the drool from your chin....