Anderson to align capacity with demand

[FDJ2]

That's like saying had it not been for the large number of early outs at Delta you would not hold the seat that you hold.

It is what it is regardless of how it came to be.

You're right that it is what it is and just like during the contraction post 9-11 the category lists will start to resemble a stove pipe.

As for the seat I hold now, I'd have held it with or with out the early outs that ended nearly 4 years ago. Of the 3000 retirements between 2001-2005 all but about 300 were either on LTD, not in the top of the list or would have retired at at age 60 prior to 12-2007.

 

[FDJ2]

Prior to SOC only. Those displacements off the 747-200 pre-SOC have no freeze, nor do those that get caught up in the waterfall displacements.

In short, it's a DAL-N problem only until SOC, and then it's everyone's problem. Again the logic for a pre-SOC position award, especially if there is an AE, will cause less impact than a far larger number of relatively senior unfrozen DAL-N displacee's. Never mind dispalcements, we will own a lot of AE and VD activity. I'm still betting on an early position bid....

The big difference is that a DALN displacement pre SOC will not displace any DALS pilot from his seat. DALN pilots displaced due to the parking of your aging 747-200 fleet will have to wait until there are openings to bid DALS equipment. Since there are proportionally more senior DALS pilots than DALN pilots and that disparity will grow larger with the PIRP and over time, I think it's a little premature to say that DALN will "own" the AE's.

 

[~~~^~~~]

FDJ2 - Sir, you must really be senior because that is the only part of the list that remotely resembles what you are typing. For the rest of us, yeah NWA owns our jobs.

You would agree that the award in no way resembles status quo and was not even designed to. It was designed to give NWA pilots a significant bump for their anticipated future attrition, NOW. They will use this super seniority and the bottom two thirds of the Delta list will pay a tremendously high price in the loss of status quo. There will be plenty enough aircraft movement to enable this bidding.

Do you disagree?

You are exactly right about the stove pipe. The problem is that many of us never applied to fly DC9's out of Detroit and would not have left our previous jobs to be a part of it. In my case, my spot is surrounded by NWA furlough bypass pilots. I'll be forced to perform flying that they figured sucked so bad they did not want the job.

As for protecting Delta pilots for four to six months, only a few senior Delta guys care. The rest of us would like to get on with the business of moving, figuring out a commute, or finding another job. It is what it is and we are not getting any younger.

 

[nwaredtail]

FDJ2 - Sir, you must really be senior because that is the only part of the list that remotely resembles what you are typing. For the rest of us, yeah NWA pretty much owns our jobs.

You would agree that the award in no way resembles status quo and was not even designed to. It was designed to give NWA pilots a significant bump for their anticipated future attrition, NOW. They will use this super seniority and the bottom part of the Delta list will pay a tremendously high price through the loss of their status quo.

Do you disagree?

You are exactly right about the stove pipe. The problem is that many of us never applied to fly DC9's out of Detroit and would not have left our previous jobs to be a part of it. In my case, my spot is surrounded by NWA furlough bypass pilots. I'll be forced to perform flying that they figured sucked so bad they did not want the job.

You are correct about the junior positions at DAL gonna take it in the shorts for a while. I am a bit surprised at this, but about 80% of the junior guys I fly with commute and EVERYONE of them stated that they will bid over to bigger equipment at DAL-S as soon as they can. I figured they would want to be at a higher % on a bidlist but I guess they want the $ and easy trips.

 

[NuGuy]

You are correct about the junior positions at DAL gonna take it in the shorts for a while. I am a bit surprised at this, but about 80% of the junior guys I fly with commute and EVERYONE of them stated that they will bid over to bigger equipment at DAL-S as soon as they can. I figured they would want to be at a higher % on a bidlist but I guess they want the $ and easy trips.

Heyas RT,

I mostly agree. There will be enough "churn" in all kinds of positions post-SOC for DAL-N guys to bubble up to all kinds of better paying positions.

Another blow will be to the junior DAL-S haven of NYC, where junior DAL-S guys could bid up if they were willing to put up with issues of NYC. BUT, everyone on the DAL-S side assumed there was going to be this mass stampede to ATL. They failed to realize there is a LARGE group of fNWA guys from the old NYC and BOS bases that commute to DTW, and those guys are pretty senior. They'll flock to NYC in droves, enjoying ER flying, an easier (or nonexistant) commute, and be at the top of the list due to relative seniority differences.

Sigh, the DAL MEC sold their side that the SLI was an "equitable deal" because they thought a few years of stagnation would lock out NWA guys from DAL metal/bases. After a few years, the NWA retirements would kick in, and it wouldn't matter.

They weren't planning on 800+ displacements on the south side. When those positions start to get refilled, a lot will go to redtails.

For the south guys, don't hold it against the fNWA guys for bidding those positions. We took it in the shorts on future attrition...bidding bigger equipment NOW is the only way to try to break even.

Nu

 

[Fly4hire]

Nu, FDJ2,

There are a couple of ways this can play out. Let's not forget that DAL is controlling DAL-N staffing now. They want minimal movement until post-SOC and avoid multiple training cycles per pilot when they can do one. They also need to get pilots into equipment and position ASAP after SOC to realize merger synergies.

The most desirable option would be to get enough PRIPS where there is no need to mess with the formula until after SOC. Barring that, If they were to determine (they know already) the base and equipment shuffles are going to be, they could open an AE for those positions now, and cross bid for post SOC training. No DAL-S pilots get bumped as a result of the -200 we just move the process up for openings that DAL-N pilots could bid post SOC. It will certainly mitigate inevitable DAL-S surpluses as a result of the Atlantic draw down as well. As ~~~^~~~ said, let's just get it over with.

If DALPA does not want to play ball, that leaves the Co. with the option of actually displacing those remaining -200 pilots and all the events it will generate. But since they are essentially playing against themselves, why bother? They could simply over staff a couple of categories with pilots on paper, awaiting training, and then let them wait until the first position bid after SOC and then train them. It would be money well spent over flooding the both school houses with unnecessary training cycles.

What I do not envision is two separate large displacement bids, to churn the lists of both groups, only to do it again, just to postpone the inevitable because some think the "stars upon thars" of the 767 are shinier than the ones on the 747-200.

Do any of you guys really think the timing of the 767 reductions are unrelated to the freighter closing? Something tells me that when you guys might be looking at considerably more displacements than DAL-N an early position bid tied with base realignments might start looking a little more attractive.......

 

[dtfl]

Heyas RT,

They failed to realize there is a LARGE group of fNWA guys from the old NYC and BOS bases that commute to DTW, and those guys are pretty senior. They'll flock to NYC in droves, enjoying ER flying, an easier (or nonexistant) commute, and be at the top of the list due to relative seniority differences.



Nu

NYC is all theirs!!

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Heyas RT,



Sigh, the DAL MEC sold their side that the SLI was an "equitable deal" because they thought a few years of stagnation would lock out NWA guys from DAL metal/bases. After a few years, the NWA retirements would kick in, and it wouldn't matter.

They weren't planning on 800+ displacements on the south side. When those positions start to get refilled, a lot will go to redtails.

For the south guys, don't hold it against the fNWA guys for bidding those positions. We took it in the shorts on future attrition...bidding bigger equipment NOW is the only way to try to break even.

Nu

How did you take it in the shorts with future attrition?? A measly few 787 deliveries was supposed to fix that. You get all of the growth DAL had on deck.....Cry me a river.

 

[Superpilot92]

How did you take it in the shorts with future attrition?? A measly few 787 deliveries was supposed to fix that. You get all of the growth DAL had on deck.....Cry me a river.

and the attrition has nothing to do with the 787 attrition is coming regardless, growth is subject to change as we are all seeing right now.

 

[licorice]

Heyas RT,



.

Sigh, the DAL MEC sold their side that the SLI was an "equitable deal" because they thought a few years of stagnation would lock out NWA guys from DAL metal/bases. After a few years, the NWA retirements would kick in, and it wouldn't matter.

Sigh? What is this "sigh" B.S. nuguy? Is that what the DAL MEC sold us on?.....You read their minds? I suppose in spite of their best efforts to keep NWA pilots down it all backfired in their face, right? Undoubtedly DOH (but, somehow, without the ten year fences) would have been a much more fair solution.....here's something for you to chew on...savor the taste and digest it well my obnoxious friend...my DOH equivalent at NWA is 2950 numbers junior to me!.....but....sigh.....that's OK because the NWA guy next to me on the list was hired 61/2 years before me, and is 4 years older... don't get me wrong though, I really like NWA guys like you.....(since Dec. 9, 2008!!!:laugh....Looking forward to all those NWA retirements!!!!cheers!:beer:

They weren't planning on 800+ displacements on the south side. When those positions start to get refilled, a lot will go to redtails.

Please have a little pride in your original airline...here's a napkin to wipe off the drool from your chin....

 

[PuffDriver]

Nu, FDJ2,

There are a couple of ways this can play out. Let's not forget that DAL is controlling DAL-N staffing now. They want minimal movement until post-SOC and avoid multiple training cycles per pilot when they can do one. They also need to get pilots into equipment and position ASAP after SOC to realize merger synergies.

The most desirable option would be to get enough PRIPS where there is no need to mess with the formula until after SOC. Barring that, If they were to determine (they know already) the base and equipment shuffles are going to be, they could open an AE for those positions now, and cross bid for post SOC training. No DAL-S pilots get bumped as a result of the -200 we just move the process up for openings that DAL-N pilots could bid post SOC. It will certainly mitigate inevitable DAL-S surpluses as a result of the Atlantic draw down as well. As ~~~^~~~ said, let's just get it over with.

If DALPA does not want to play ball, that leaves the Co. with the option of actually displacing those remaining -200 pilots and all the events it will generate. But since they are essentially playing against themselves, why bother? They could simply over staff a couple of categories with pilots on paper, awaiting training, and then let them wait until the first position bid after SOC and then train them. It would be money well spent over flooding the both school houses with unnecessary training cycles.

What I do not envision is two separate large displacement bids, to churn the lists of both groups, only to do it again, just to postpone the inevitable because some think the "stars upon thars" of the 767 are shinier than the ones on the 747-200.

Do any of you guys really think the timing of the 767 reductions are unrelated to the freighter closing? Something tells me that when you guys might be looking at considerably more displacements than DAL-N an early position bid tied with base realignments might start looking a little more attractive.......

You are so full of it. The NWA guys made out like bandits on this list. Don't piss on us and tell us it's raining. What's done is done, but don't act like you got a raw deal from lack of attrition. You got UNPRECEDENTED pull and plug to account for attrition which was going away anyway. EVERYBODY retires. EVERYBODY. Delta and NWA guys will retire. It is an equal. A non-game changer. Add to that that there were NO fences, and the only guys getting screwed are from the Delta side, which did not get protected in the spots that we currently hold. Go figure. You ask for fences, we ask for fences. The middle ground? No fences--save a handful of widebodies.

You got a good deal. Just shut up and take it.

 

[nwaredtail]

You are so full of it. The NWA guys made out like bandits on this list. Don't piss on us and tell us it's raining. What's done is done, but don't act like you got a raw deal from lack of attrition. You got UNPRECEDENTED pull and plug to account for attrition which was going away anyway. EVERYBODY retires. EVERYBODY. Delta and NWA guys will retire. It is an equal. A non-game changer. Add to that that there were NO fences, and the only guys getting screwed are from the Delta side, which did not get protected in the spots that we currently hold. Go figure. You ask for fences, we ask for fences. The middle ground? No fences--save a handful of widebodies.

You got a good deal. Just shut up and take it.

If anyone had taken the time to analyze the "pull and plug", they would realize that it did almost nothing for 70% of the NWA list. It took the OLDEST 275ish pilots at NWA (not most senior) and rearranged them. It was a smoke and mirrors game to appease the NWA folks, which it didn't.

So I guess the 10% seniority hit I take in the next 5-10 years and the 10% you gain is just something I should "get over". OK, but don't bitch when every open WB seat is bid by the NWA guys. One group now right?

BTW, I heard almost no displacements on the NWA side now pre-SOC. Should make the first AE fun huh?

 

[Scope out RJ's]

deleted. Not worth it

 

[PuffDriver]

So I guess the 10% seniority hit I take in the next 5-10 years and the 10% you gain is just something I should "get over". OK, but don't bitch when every open WB seat is bid by the NWA guys. One group now right?

Exactly right. The pull and plug was NOT smoke and mirrors. You guys like to exaggerate the effect of your retirements, but the facts are the facts. All people retire, whether now or later. Getting ANY credit for them was a step out into the wild blue for a mediator. Akin to insanity. Regardless, the lack of any kind of fence for non-premium, when both sides asked for it, was wildly in favor of NWA pilots--then throw in the lack of complete relative seniority as yet another bone to NWA.

AEs are different than displacements. If we don't replace flying, the picture changes, if we grow wildly, the picture changes. The picture will change a lot between a displacements and entitlements. Thus, you do not know what that next entitlement will look like. What is becoming more and more apparent is something the Delta pilots already knew--NWA pilots will flock to those puny little POS 767s left and right in those premium wide body bases.

As I said, it's a good deal for you. you shouldn't pass up the golden opportunity to keep your mouth shut about it. You are looking like a fool.

 

[NuGuy]

If anyone had taken the time to analyze the "pull and plug", they would realize that it did almost nothing for 70% of the NWA list. It took the OLDEST 275ish pilots at NWA (not most senior) and rearranged them. It was a smoke and mirrors game to appease the NWA folks, which it didn't.

So I guess the 10% seniority hit I take in the next 5-10 years and the 10% you gain is just something I should "get over". OK, but don't bitch when every open WB seat is bid by the NWA guys. One group now right?

BTW, I heard almost no displacements on the NWA side now pre-SOC. Should make the first AE fun huh?

Heyas RT,

Again, pretty close to the mark. The "pull outs" were woefully inadequate to cover even the short term retirements, let alone those a few years out.

175 fNWA pilots have retired JUST since the SLI was released. That's right, over half the pilots that were supposed to leave in the next FIVE years are already gone. And guess what? The vast majority of them were at 60, exactly as predicted by the NWA side. The PERP will probably add another 100 to that list. To even get within one order of magnitude in error, the arbitrators would have needed to double the number of pull outs.

Like you, I take a double digit hit in my relative seniority. Seats that I would have held for years before retirement at 60 are now out of reach even if I go to 65.

The DAL guys hue and cry about what they lost. In reality, they got EXACTLY what they wanted, and are now QQing with buyer's remorse. They might have been better off with the dynamic plan with 5 year base/aircraft fences.

The DAL MEC tried to quell that remorse by saying "well, there isn't going to be any movement, so all of this is moot...everyone will stay where they are", but that doesn't look like that's going to work out so well.

The night the SLI was released, it was VERY apparent to anyone who could read that there was exactly one avenue to make up what fNWA guys lost, and that was bid up now to the best paying seat you can hold, or at least increase your QoL, because moving up down the road is out of the question. No one should be surprised that fNWA guys will do what they can to mitigate the damage.

I will agree that the NWA guys didn't get stomped quite as hard as the Western or PanAm guys, but maybe that's why some of the DAL guys are pissed...someone actually put up a fight and got a couple of good jabs in.

Nu

 

[General Lee]

Heyas RT,

Again, pretty close to the mark. The "pull outs" were woefully inadequate to cover even the short term retirements, let alone those a few years out.

175 fNWA pilots have retired JUST since the SLI was released. That's right, over half the pilots that were supposed to leave in the next FIVE years are already gone. And guess what? The vast majority of them were at 60, exactly as predicted by the NWA side. The PERP will probably add another 100 to that list. To even get within one order of magnitude in error, the arbitrators would have needed to double the number of pull outs.

Like you, I take a double digit hit in my relative seniority. Seats that I would have held for years before retirement at 60 are now out of reach even if I go to 65.

The DAL guys hue and cry about what they lost. In reality, they got EXACTLY what they wanted, and are now QQing with buyer's remorse. They might have been better off with the dynamic plan with 5 year base/aircraft fences.

The DAL MEC tried to quell that remorse by saying "well, there isn't going to be any movement, so all of this is moot...everyone will stay where they are", but that doesn't look like that's going to work out so well.

The night the SLI was released, it was VERY apparent to anyone who could read that there was exactly one avenue to make up what fNWA guys lost, and that was bid up now to the best paying seat you can hold, or at least increase your QoL, because moving up down the road is out of the question. No one should be surprised that fNWA guys will do what they can to mitigate the damage.

I will agree that the NWA guys didn't get stomped quite as hard as the Western or PanAm guys, but maybe that's why some of the DAL guys are pissed...someone actually put up a fight and got a couple of good jabs in.

Nu

When it comes down to it, seniority will prevail. Some people "hit the jackpot" when they went straight to the 767 as newhires. In most cases, that just doesn't happen unless your airline only has those airplanes. (757s and 767s at North American Airlines for example) Guys like Fins may have to bite the bullet and go to a narrowbody, like everyone else did when they originally started. If you are in the bottom 500 total, you may have to go to the DC9. Hey, at least there won't be any FE seats left, which means you get a window seat. Eventually the NWA guys will start to retire en mass, and things will move again, including hiring maybe. But, the rest of us have gone through ups and downs, (like after 9-11) and it will probably happen again.

As far as the Pan Am guys and Western guys getting stomped, I don't think that is the case. Their airlines were going away, and that is not the case with NWA. The Pan Am guys were lucky to come over with any seniority, and the Western guys mostly stayed out West, where they wanted to be. Some of them were furloughed, but are all now fairly senior 767 captains. The NWA merger will provide some new routes and new bases with some opportunity for Delta South guys. Maybe you don't want to go to MSP or DTW, but the mass exodus out of Detroit may allow some opportunity in DTW for some, even though it might include a commute. That 757 seat you lost in JFK or ATL may be waiting for you in DTW, or a shiny new A319.

Again, seniority will rule, and after SOC there may be a big shuffle. If you are junior, expect to be treated like it. Eventually, you will be senior, and your 767 will be waiting for you. All I know is that I like being senior.....maybe I will try the A330 if they put it in ATL......


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

If anyone had taken the time to analyze the "pull and plug", they would realize that it did almost nothing for 70% of the NWA list. It took the OLDEST 275ish pilots at NWA (not most senior) and rearranged them. It was a smoke and mirrors game to appease the NWA folks, which it didn't.

So I guess the 10% seniority hit I take in the next 5-10 years and the 10% you gain is just something I should "get over". OK, but don't bitch when every open WB seat is bid by the NWA guys. One group now right?

BTW, I heard almost no displacements on the NWA side now pre-SOC. Should make the first AE fun huh?

Puffdriver is right. If there are lots of displacements, the AE won't be as great for you guys since reinstatements come before entitlements. You need open spots for entitlements. And, the company would rather have entitlements since they are cheaper than displacements which allow paid moves.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

A/C 131 (B-767-300 "domestic") is coming out of storage this weekend. A bit of good news.

 

[NuGuy]

Puffdriver is right. If there are lots of displacements, the AE won't be as great for you guys since reinstatements come before entitlements. You need open spots for entitlements. And, the company would rather have entitlements since they are cheaper than displacements which allow paid moves.


Bye Bye--General Lee

But only for 180 days, which the bulk of this downturn will most certainly be.

Too bad you guys didn't get unlimted recall rights in the JPWA...

Nu

 

[General Lee]

But only for 180 days, which the bulk of this downturn will most certainly be.

Too bad you guys didn't get unlimted recall rights in the JPWA...

Nu

There should be 4 or 5 bids total, which could involve some reinstatements within 180 days. One thing that was not included in the joint contract was the monthly APA, which a lot of your senior 757 drivers used to commute between different bases depending on what time of the year it was. Maybe MSP for the Winter to do Asia stuff, and DTW for the Summer to do more Europe. Well, that won't happen anymore, forcing them to choose a base, or move to one. If they live in FLA and want to fly out of ATL, watch out for that jumpseat---it is already tough to get it with everyone pouncing on the phone at the 4 day deadline going to work. But hey, it is just easier to move to ATL and fly from here. Come join me on the North side! And, see me perform every Thursday night at the Laugh Barn in Marietta. Remember to tip the waitresses!


Bye Bye--General Lee