Air France Flight Missing

[Dornier 335]

Originally Posted by Dornier 335

Well, there was precip around somewhere, mebbe not on your route but it was there. You may not have seen it, but it was there somewhere, no other way. But I'm not here to hi-jack this thread to argue with you and Mister Lear about basic meteorology.

Don't want to get off subject here, but I didn't post this. Thanks anyway about the info about dry lightning. Back to Union Busting ...errr I mean Met 101.

LOL! Religioninfo.com really exists!

 

[Whine Lover]

Now Kids, let's close this thread shall we?

Something VERY BAD happened to the poor Souls of 447.

There will be appropriate investigations (and/or questions ad infinitum ) and let's just hope that maybe we can all learn something from this horrible event once the facts are known.

Let it never happen again.... "God ( Insert Deity here ) willing" to any of us or our loved ones.

Good Night, and "God" Bless. ( Man, I am SO P.C. )

MKR

 

[goodgig]

I hope they can figure this one out, but I would bet that most of it will remain a mystery.

 

[30West]

The ITCZ was by far my least favorite part of international flying for reasons already mentioned above. Imagining what the Air France crew was up against is enough to induce night terrors.

 

[Crossky]

Lear70 A similar thing happened to me. Not a night, during daylight flying mostly in IMC at 37,000 feet. I had checked the weather before we departed - no significant echos, turned the wx radar on with the turbulence mode (Honeywell) - no echos, and all of a sudden a return pops up right in front of us (less than 5 NM) impossible to circumnavigate. Plane went into a couple 90 degree banks, icing, etc. It really scared the sh!te outta me.

What's amazing is that no echos in convective activity can put you in severe turbulence. I don't remember that part in Archie Trembel's (spelling?) radar course...

I think this scenario exactly is what AF447 encountered. According to this guy's weather analysis these TS in the intertropical convergence zone can have strong, narrow updrafts which are difficult to detect using weather radar. He theorizes that AF447 was first flying in moderate turbulence in the lefovers of old storms, and new cumilonimbus grew up into the flightpath. That's where the meteorlogist got the quote of 'they flew into a 100 mph wind', that's the updraft, 8,000 fpm if you're using statute miles.

My radar training at my regional isn't that great to be honest but they just gave us just before this accident a new radar handout and summer flying guide. About six years too late if you ask me. Anyway what I seem to remember about painting cumilonimbus growing from below while at high altitude: 1. turn up the gain, 2. make sure it's tilted down enough, 3. avoid even green returns.

 

[Lear70]

When I was just starting as a 727 F/O, we had to know more than ANY airline has ever asked of me in my entire career since. One of those things was calculating TIP and radar angles on the fly at any given altitude. It amazed me when I got to Pinnacle how they never taught JACK CRAP about radar usage and the F/O's would be all over the place with the tilt and gain until I just asked them to leave the radar where I d*mn well left it unless they could explain why they had it where they did (no one ever could and they didn't want to learn proper radar usage for the most part).

That said, airliners won't go very far avoiding even green returns. Sounds good in theory to some paper pusher, but it's just not gonna happen.

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

Most airlines don't teach very much when it comes to radar, unfortunately. It's becoming a lost artform.

I went through one green echo on my first night flight in the ITCZ last summer. That was also the last time I'll do that.



Rant time, here: Why the heck can't we have a real time satellite uplink of radar and sat imagery?? The technology is easily there, it's not very expensive and freaking Cessnas have it and 99% of airliners don't. Heck on our PTV equipped planes the passengers have better "big picture" weather than we have.

 

[freightdogfred]

I think this scenario exactly is what AF447 encountered. According to this guy's weather analysis these TS in the intertropical convergence zone can have strong, narrow updrafts which are difficult to detect using weather radar. He theorizes that AF447 was first flying in moderate turbulence in the lefovers of old storms, and new cumilonimbus grew up into the flightpath. That's where the meteorlogist got the quote of 'they flew into a 100 mph wind', that's the updraft, 8,000 fpm if you're using statute miles.

My radar training at my regional isn't that great to be honest but they just gave us just before this accident a new radar handout and summer flying guide. About six years too late if you ask me. Anyway what I seem to remember about painting cumilonimbus growing from below while at high altitude: 1. turn up the gain, 2. make sure it's tilted down enough, 3. avoid even green returns.

Difficult to detect but still detectable...The fact is when flying in the ITCZ most of the cells contain so much moisture that painting it is not a problem. I flew nightly runs down to Bogota for fresh roses, and we didn't tiptoe around the updrafts, we just went around the whole thing. Crossing the ITCZ twice a night for months on end, using old Bendix monochrome RD4 radars you learned in a hurry if it painted anything above you went around it. The problem was when the radar quit in that old clapped out 50 series Diesel eight you strapped in tight and held on, thanking god you were in an airplane Donald Douglas built. It'll make a christian outta the most hardened sinner.

I have my own theorys on how one of the most sophisticated aircraft flying, with a top notch doppler radar got into this predicament, but as has been said before on this thread-there by the grace of god go I.

RIP, to the passengers and crew.

 

[trip]

My radar training at my regional isn't that great to be honest but they just gave us just before this accident a new radar handout and summer flying guide. About six years too late if you ask me. Anyway what I seem to remember about painting cumilonimbus growing from below while at high altitude: 1. turn up the gain, 2. make sure it's tilted down enough, 3. avoid even green returns.

Just remember when you turn up the gain you lose the PAC alert function, it is OK to turn it up for a look but best to leave it at normal for the full picture.

 

[A-Track]

Found this kind of interesting.

"Investigators also likely will explore a possible structural weakness in the A330's wing because it hit an AF A321 while taxing at Paris Charles de Gaulle in August 2006. Damage to the A330 was considered minor at the time but the A321's tail sustained substantial damage."

from the Air Transport World

 

[LAFrequentflyer]

UK papers now saying French suspect that the pilots stalled the airplane. I'm not a commercial / ATP (only PPL) so don't understand the aerodynamics of high altitude / high speed stalls. Do know you slow down to aircraft specific speed to penetrate turbulence.

Would appreciate your insights...

Thanks,
LAFF

 

[ACL65PILOT]

In a jet like this that reverted to a few different flight law programs, I think it is very hard to say the pilots did it. (Yet)
But in the end it is always easier for the living to blame the deceased.

 

[SLOTH]

But in the end it is always easier for the living to blame the deceased.

Exactly, and we (pilots) are our own worst enemy!

 

[Lear70]

UK papers now saying French suspect that the pilots stalled the airplane. I'm not a commercial / ATP (only PPL) so don't understand the aerodynamics of high altitude / high speed stalls. Do know you slow down to aircraft specific speed to penetrate turbulence.

Would appreciate your insights...

Thanks,
LAFF

Without the FDR there is no possible way they can know that for certain. The ACARS doesn't transmit continuous instrumentation feed.

The warning system might have sent a stall warning message through ECAM, and that might have been in one of the final few ACARS bursts, but whether it was before or after the aircraft started coming apart, there's no way to tell.

Incidentally, in a thunderstorm penetration scenario, it's very possible to encounter a severe updraft shear, stabilize the plane's pitch and relative airspeed for that vertical shaft, then have it suddenly become a down-draft / tailwind shear and all your relative airspeed drops off. If you were slowed back to turbulence pentration speed or Va, especially at high altitude, theoretically you would then stall the plane from the sudden loss of relative airspeed, but that wouldn't be considered a pilot-induced stall, that would be pure weather/windshear related (windshear can exist at any altitude and can exist both vertically and horizontally).

 

[livin'thesim]

Found this kind of interesting.

"Investigators also likely will explore a possible structural weakness in the A330's wing because it hit an AF A321 while taxing at Paris Charles de Gaulle in August 2006. Damage to the A330 was considered minor at the time but the A321's tail sustained substantial damage."

from the Air Transport World

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the Airbus that crashed over long island have some issue during it's manufacture? I remember reading somewhere that the tail had been damaged at the factory and that was a major contributing factor. Anyone?

If that's the case, not good for Airbus.

 

[ImbracableCrunk]

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the Airbus that crashed over long island have some issue during it's manufacture? I remember reading somewhere that the tail had been damaged at the factory and that was a major contributing factor. Anyone?

If that's the case, not good for Airbus.

Here's some NTSB copypasta for ya:

No deviations from the original design and materials specifications were found in the vertical stabilizer (including the repair to the left center lug area that was made during manufacturing) that would have contributed to the vertical stabilizer separation. Also, a detailed inspection of flight 587’s wreckage, including an extensive examination of the vertical stabilizer main attachment fitting fractures, revealed that each main attachment fitting had features that were consistent with overstress fracture and exhibited no evidence of fatigue features or other preexisting degradation.

http://www.ntsb.gov/publictn/2004/AAR0404.pdf

 

[Donsa320]

UK papers now saying French suspect that the pilots stalled the airplane. I'm not a commercial / ATP (only PPL) so don't understand the aerodynamics of high altitude / high speed stalls. Do know you slow down to aircraft specific speed to penetrate turbulence.

Would appreciate your insights...

Thanks,
LAFF

Vb is the turbulence penetration speed and is usually right about the same as LRC (long range cruise) at those altitudes and weights so no adjustment is usually required. Just hang on.

 

[crj567]

Most airlines don't teach very much when it comes to radar, unfortunately. It's becoming a lost artform.

I went through one green echo on my first night flight in the ITCZ last summer. That was also the last time I'll do that.



Rant time, here: Why the heck can't we have a real time satellite uplink of radar and sat imagery?? The technology is easily there, it's not very expensive and freaking Cessnas have it and 99% of airliners don't. Heck on our PTV equipped planes the passengers have better "big picture" weather than we have.

-Good point.

The answer is: Airlines are run by the cheapest bastards in the history of cheap bastards-thes guys will not spend any money (except for each other's bonuses) if they are not forced to do so.
-I evny the avionics capabilities most Cirrus and Cessna guys have every time they talk about it!

 

[airplane wizard]

UK papers now saying French suspect that the pilots stalled the airplane. I'm not a commercial / ATP (only PPL) so don't understand the aerodynamics of high altitude / high speed stalls. Do know you slow down to aircraft specific speed to penetrate turbulence.

Would appreciate your insights...

Thanks,
LAFF

Yea, just like you want to keep your 172 in the green arc on the airspeed indicator in turbulence.

 

[airplane wizard]

I hope they can figure this one out, but I would bet that most of it will remain a mystery.

probably will be the most intensely investigated aircraft accident in history. The recovered parts of the Titanic from that depth so they should be able to get the recorders.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

probably will be the most intensely investigated aircraft accident in history. The recovered parts of the Titanic from that depth so they should be able to get the recorders.

Actually the HMS Titanic is in water about half the depth of some of the wreckage.

 

[OneBadLT123]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090604/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/brazil_plane

Interesting part of the article. No idea how true it is though...

The messages detail a series of failures that end with its systems shutting down, suggesting the plane broke apart in the sky, according to an aviation industry official with knowledge of the investigation who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the crash

France's accident investigation agency said only two findings have been established so far: One is that the series of automatic messages sent from Flight 447 gave conflicting signals about the plane's speed; the other is that the flight path went through dangerously stormy weather


The last message from the pilot was a manual signal at 11 p.m. local time Sunday saying he was flying through an area of black, electrically charged cumulonimbus clouds that come with violent winds and lightning. The automated messages that followed suggest the plane broke apart in the sky, according to the aviation industry official.
At 11:10 p.m., a cascade of problems began: the autopilot had disengaged, a key computer system switched to alternative power, and controls needed to keep the plane stable had been damaged. An alarm sounded indicating the deterioration of flight systems. Then, systems for monitoring air speed, altitude and direction failed. Then controls over the main flight computer and wing spoilers failed as well. At 11:14 p.m., a final automatic message signaled loss of cabin pressure and complete electrical failure as the plane was breaking apart.
Patrick Smith, a U.S. airline pilot and aviation analyst, said the failures could have begun with a loss of electrical power, possibly as the result of an extremely strong lightning bolt.
"What jumps out at me is the reported failure of both the primary and standby instruments," Smith said. "From that point the plane basically becomes unflyable."
"If they lost control and started spiraling down into a storm cell, the plane would begin disintegrating, the engines and wings would start coming off, the cabin would begin falling apart," he said.
The pilot of a Spanish airliner flying nearby at the time reported seeing a bright flash of white light plunging to the ocean, said Angel del Rio, spokesman for the Spanish airline Air Comet.
"Suddenly, off in the distance, we observed a strong and bright flash of white light that took a downward and vertical trajectory and vanished in six seconds," the pilot wrote in his report, del Rio told the AP. The pilot of the Spanish plane, en route from Lima, Peru to Madrid, said he heard no emergency calls.

 

[poppi]

The New York Times reported that Airbus (EAD.PA) issued a warning on Thursday to airlines that pilots should follow "established procedures" if they suspect airspeed indicators are not working
The New York Times said Airbus told clients "there was inconsistency between the different measured airspeeds" in the Airbus 330 that crashed, though the company noted it was not prejudging the investigation's outcome

 

[poppi]

at 0210Z : from bottom to top :
- AUTO FLT AP OFF
-F/CTL ALTN LAW
- FlAG ON Capt PFD
- FLAG ON F/O PFD
- AUTO FLT ATHR OFF
- NAV TCAS FAULT
- FLAG ON CAPT PFD
- FLAG ON F/O PFD
- F/CTL RUD TRV LIM FAULT
- EFCS2...1..EFCS1...AFS
- EFCS1...X2..EFCS2X

at 0211Z :
- FLAG ON CAPT PFD
- FLAG ON F/O PFD

at 0212z:
- NAV ADR DISAGREE
- ISIS ....ISIS
- IR2...1,EFCS1X, IR1, IR3

at 0213Z :
- F/CTL PRIM1 FAULT
- F/CTL SEC1 FAULT
- AFS 1 FMGEC1

 

[Stifler's Mom]

On Wednesday, searchers recovered two debris fields and had identified the wreckage, including an airplane seat and an orange float as coming from Flight 447. Officials now say that none of the debris recovered is from the missing plane.

I don't know what to think from all of the news reports. Everybody is speaking on a condition of anonymity, and contradicting what info has already been released.

 

[OneBadLT123]

Yeah this just came out on CNN as of now. This story is just becoming werid. Dont know who, or what to trust anymore...

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/04/plane.crash/index.html

The Brazilian air force said that debris picked up Thursday near where officials believe Air France Flight 447 crashed Monday into the Atlantic Ocean was not from the plane.

"It has been verified that the material did not belong to the plane," Brigadier Ramon Borges Cardoso told reporters in Recife about the material recovered Thursday. "It is a pallet of wood that is utilized for transport. It is used in planes, but on this flight to Paris, there was no wooden pallet."

He added that oil slicks seen on the ocean were not from the plane, either, and that the quantity of oil exceeded the amount the plane would have carried.

"No material from the airplane was picked up," he said.
The announcement left open the question of whether other debris that had not yet been plucked from the ocean might be from the plane.

On Wednesday, searchers recovered two debris fields and had identified the wreckage, including an airplane seat and an orange float as coming from Flight 447. Officials now say that none of the debris recovered is from the missing plane.

So after all this talk of debis being plucked so far, none of it aparently is part of the bus. Where would such an oil slick come from? Must be one hell of a leaking ship, or something...

 

[LowlyPropCapt]

Bizzare... All of this is very strange.

 

[Erlanger]

The BBC initially reported the story of the wreckage as to not being from AF447 and only CNN has picked it up.

 

[SonicPig]

at 0210Z : from bottom to top :
- AUTO FLT AP OFF
-F/CTL ALTN LAW
- FlAG ON Capt PFD
- FLAG ON F/O PFD
- AUTO FLT ATHR OFF
- NAV TCAS FAULT
- FLAG ON CAPT PFD
- FLAG ON F/O PFD
- F/CTL RUD TRV LIM FAULT
- EFCS2...1..EFCS1...AFS
- EFCS1...X2..EFCS2X

at 0211Z :
- FLAG ON CAPT PFD
- FLAG ON F/O PFD

at 0212z:
- NAV ADR DISAGREE
- ISIS ....ISIS
- IR2...1,EFCS1X, IR1, IR3

at 0213Z :
- F/CTL PRIM1 FAULT
- F/CTL SEC1 FAULT
- AFS 1 FMGEC1

That's ugly on a CAVU day in CONUS ops. Avionics fire????

The Pig.

 

[Erlanger]

This story has some very interesting info.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090605/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/brazil_plane