Lear70;
I've done a fair amount of over-water flying. Many times late at night said:
Gonna have to call BS on this one... It's impossible to have lightning without precip/ice, which is what causes the lightning and will give a return on any functioning radar. I'll buy your radar in the Lear did not show a return (it was malfunctioning, no other way) but to suggest there was "not enough precip to give a return" is preposterous. Sorry, but that's Meteorology 101.
RIP to the crew and passengers of this tragedy.
Yeeeaahh, I'm gonna have to, sort of, disagree with you there. Yeah. Because I was there, and had that airplane all week, radar was functioning perfectly.
The updrafts and downdrafts alone can produce enough friction from the dust and moisture particles inside the cloud matter to produce a static discharge from cloud to cloud, yet still not carry enough DENSITY of water for the radar to report back anything than a faint green or yellow return, and certainly not the large-core yellow, red, or magenta returns you'd normally associated with a mature thunderstorm.
I've experienced EXACTLY that, more than once, with a radar that otherwise worked flawlessly. A thunderstorm doesn't have to be pouring down rain to produce lightning. It also doesn't have to be pouring down rain (mature stages) to be deadly.
I refuse to believe an experienced crew such as this deliberately and willingly penetrated a thunderstorm of that magnitude, and there was NOTHING to indicate a radar malfunction prior to the initial ACARS bursts. Period. So, either:
a. Something else besides a t-storm took the plane out of the sky and now we're back to sabotage / terrorist act kind of ideas.
b. The pilots had a malfunctioning radar that didn't report the cell and didn't trigger an associated ACARS fault message and they flew into it unknowingly (and we're creating a new, COMPLETELY unfounded hypothesis with that idea with no data to support it), or
c. The cell was there, but not carrying enough moisture to paint as anything other than light or moderate and they flew through it not knowing what was about to hit them.
p.s. Maybe you should re-take Meteorology 101 to understand the intensity of the return is in direct correlation to the intensity of the precipitation contained within the cell, and severe updrafts and downdrafts CAN occur both before and after the cell is in its mature stage and has depleted or has not yet stored a large volume of moisture.